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No, I wouldn't consider that a direct connection. That having been said, I'm unaware of any clutch pedals being connected to any throw out bearings via a computer and servo anywhere in the industry.
"We aren't in a twist we are simply pointing out that many of the functions you already use are computer controlled and the clutch could easily be just another one of them."
Based upon the language that we use, a "Computer Controlled Clutch" would indeed automate a portion of the manual process; hence it would become "Semi-Automatic".
"I only pointed out the hydrolic piston because the release of fluid is not, directly, connected to the release of your foot."
I beg to differ there, as implemented on modern cars there is no more hydraulic latency in a hydraulically actuated clutch than there is in a cable operated clutch (cable stretch) or a rod and lever linkage (bushing compression and loses associated with mechanical complexity). Thinking about this from a different perspective, if the hydraulic systems as they are implemented in our cars suffered from such a latency, then braking systems would be far less effective than they are.
"It is one of the reasons it is so much easier to drive a car with a hydrolic activated clutch because it is harder, note not impossible, to stall."
Hmmm, maybe, maybe not. I suppose that would depend upon the implementation. That having been said, my last two cars both had hydraulic clutch systems, and I stalled each of them more often than all my other Manual transmission equipped cars combined. Go figure.
"What happens today when we have a laps in concentration running up a long on ramp attempting to wring our every last ounce of performance from your car. You forget and allow it to pass red line and what happens? Didn't you have direct control of your throttle right up to the point you exceeded the limits someone that designed the vehicle decided you had gone too far? Does that over ride make the throttle response an automatic one?"
Bingo! Now we're talking the same language. What you've described is what I'll call a "Semi-Automatic" throttle.
"But if we are talking about manual clutch engagement I see your point. I can even agree. And from that point of view I realize the most advanced race cars in the world are all automatics. From F-1 and Alms to WRC there isn't a top class manual in the bunch. I am not sure this forum would agree however. Not that we often do."
Hey, that's two agreements in a row. I at least consider that a start. ;-)
Best Regards,
Shipo
2001 BMW 330ci/E46, 2008 BMW 335i conv/E93
Yes, but in many cases the "technical stuff that's in race cars" has a benefit in street cars. Honda did a great job putting some unique suspension technology into the S2000 from their Formula One experience - and you can feel it in the way the car hanles like a go cart. But, without exception, the SMG's I've driven in sports cars and sedans do NOT offer the no hesitation, positive engagement and complete control advantages of a true manual transmission. Their only advantage, IMO, is the ability to keep both hands on the wheel when upshifting or downshifting one gear at a time. And in a 1.0 g sports car, that's a small advantage compared to what you give up in feel and complete control, IMO.
I still contend that most people that gravitate towards SMG's, DSG's, Tiptronics, Steptronics and Manumatics are a little more gimmick oriented than driving oriented, assuming they are physically capable of driving a stick.
Even the much heralded 7 speed SMG in the 502 HP M5/M6 was a dissapointment when I test drove it. I'd rather have the previous generation 400 hp M5 with a 6-speed manual. Heck, to get to 502 hp in the new one, you even need to program it with i-Drive every time you start the car. Gimmmicks, gimmicks, gimmicks.
you can "power-shift" every shift.
There's no need to let up on the throttle, even momentarily.
I think there's general agreement that the VW/Borg Warner double clutch tranny is far superior to BMW's SMG setup.
2001 BMW 330ci/E46, 2008 BMW 335i conv/E93
I have to agree with Andy here.
It is easy to advertise and sell new and improved, easier, more gears, smoother operation, terms everyone can agree on. Todays drivers want power windows, power seats, power adjustable mirrors. They want radio presets multi changers and cup holders. They want computer controlled fuel delivery systems, automatic braking systems and air conditioning. My wife insisted on power door locks and a power trunk lock. People want these things enough to pay extra for them. People don't tend to expect to pay more for manuals, even when I have been told some have had to pay extra for manuals I can't picture it. One has to wonder when the trend is to remove the human input from driving as much as possible how manuals fit into those plans. We have cars that can be programed to open at your touch, start because they recognize your touch and adjust the seats to your individual specifications or you spouses simply by pushing a button. Many gadgets today become standard features by the next time we buy a car. Because we are willing to pay for new technology and are reluctant to invest in old technology unless we get quite a price break.
Maybe the reason manuals are coveted in the US as much as other parts of the world has something to do with our size and how much paved roads we have. It is quite easy for me to leave LA heading for relatives in Seattle and once out on I five only have to put it in high gear and cruise control. More than likely my tach will not fluctuate more than 100 or 200 RPMs and I only have to stop about every 3 or 4 hours for fuel. After that kind of driving or like the trip we took to Texas last Christmas the only feeling we were concerned about had absolutely nothing to do with our feet. But we were sure glad when we got a chance to stand. In those situations the manual has no advantage. And like I said before people interested with remote start won't be looking at manuals for a while.
I don't always want an instant shift. I may want to skip a gear or two. I get what I want when I want it how I want it with a manual.
What I hate is fixing stuff (or these days, having it fixed). My experience is that automatics break more often than manuals & that they cost much (much) more to fix when they do. The all-singing, all-dancing alphabet-soup manu-matics could be just fine for those who don't want to use a clutch. . .SO LONG AS THEY DON'T BREAK.
Then, finding a mechanic who can fix the latest & greatest without introducing new problems becomes the issue. Oh, and bring money & plenty of time. Ever notice how finding spare parts for the new stuff takes forever?
Replace the oil, clutch & throwout bearing every 100K miles or so. Repeat.
First - and please don't be offended by this as I respect everyone is different - you (and your wife) don't exactly strike me as driving enthusaists. You repeatedly refer to long highway trips at constant speeds. And you seem ready to purchase any gizmo that a manufacturer is willing to put in the car.
I drive a fair amount of mundane miles myself. But the difference between us may be that I chose a car based a lot on how it will perform, feel and be fun to drive on those occasions where the opportunity arises. You appear to place creature comforts and "technology" as the highest priority.
I even search out those opportunities. I make a certain 30 mile non-rush hour roundtrip from DC to Virginia about 3-4 times a week. I can choose one route which utilizes primary roads and the Capital Beltway and is boring and ugly as hell. Or I can go through winding Rock Creek Parkway and GW Parkway where the drive is fun and the scenery beautiful. I go the latter route 75% of the time even though it takes a several minutes longer. I probably shift gears 3 times as much. Coming home, the top is down on my 911 and the sport exhaust and suspension settings are turned on. I suspect you would take the former route 100% of the time after figuring out that it takes less time, and not seeing any driving enjoyment form the longer route.
Second: I think cdnpinhead touches on a very good point about long term cost.
In 1994, long before I could afford a 911, I scraped together all of my nickels to buy a 1995 Nissan maxima SE 5-speed. It had only one option - ABS at $1,000. No sunroof, Bose stereo, remote entry, leather, GPS, etc. etc. That car is still in our household, residing at our second home. It has 155,000 miles, is still on the original clutch and has been incredibly reliable and low maintenance.
No dout that much of the "technology" that goes into new cars adds to their safety and comfort. But it also adds considerably to the likelihood of added repairs and maintenance over 75,000 to 100,000 miles, let alone 155,000. And, in the case of DSG's and SMG's for what benefit?? So one can have a gimpy left leg that gets no exercise. The cost of a major repair/replacement to an M3 SMG is a $4,000 to $5,000 ticket. Audi's are not much less. My Maxima clutch, if it ever goes bad, is under $500.
Yes, I've got all sorts of technology in my 911. But shame on me if I bought such a car and can't afford to maintain it. And, even then, I sure as heck wasn't going to spend $3,400 on a Tiptronic that detracted from the performance and fun to drive factor, with the possibility of more expensive repairs down the road.
Go for the gizmos if you want. I'll stick with what works for me. FWIW, I don't wear technologically advanced polyester suits or live in a technologically advanced vinyl sided house. But I did love the technologically advanced suspension in my S2000. Guess I'm just selective in what I think is an "advancement".
If the car shifts for me, I think of it as automatic, even if it uses mechanical bits in direct contact with each other. The point is, I don't have to think about being in the right gear. I just have to worry about the throttle and brake pedals.
If I have to push a button or pull a lever for it to shift, it's manual. My hand (manus in Latin, hence the word manual) is a part of the process.
I think it's a distinction worth sorting out because I think the amount of driver input necessary is what changes the driving experience. Even if you only have to push a paddle to shift, if you have to push that paddle to shift, you're going to think about the same things that a stickshift driver is thinking about: what the engine is doing, what kind of engine response you want, what speed you'll be doing 30 seconds from now, etc.
Personally, I like giving my left leg something to do, but when I drive an automatic my mindset changes far beyond the lack of left legwork.
If a computer makes the shift, it's an automatic. Even if you ask for the shift. A foot-operated clutch whose engagement you can modulate is the qualifier to be a manual. No exceptions. IMHO, of course! :-)
DSG, SMG, Tiptronic, all just tricks to divert the driver's attention away from the fact that they no longer drive a manual. :-(
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Said another way, to use the following logic:
"If I have to push a button or pull a lever for it to shift, it's manual. My hand (manus in Latin, hence the word manual) is a part of the process."
You would then have to call a "ManuMatic" slushbox transmission set to "Semi-Automatic" mode a "Manual". I'm thinking that even you wouldn't even dream of doing that. :P
Best Regards,
Shipo
I will confess to seeing cars and trucks are nothing more than a machine or a tool. They are after all machines and thinking of them as such I tend to dismiss feel as a romantic notion as compared to perform. (not a big surprise I am sure) I do get more pleasure out of building or restoring a TR-3 than I do out of driving one. Something I did only a year or two ago. Yes the concept was interesting and the execution was simplistic but I knew it couldn't perform in the same class as our ZTS. I was fascinated that the old TR-3 still had a crank hole in the radiator like the Tr-2 even if it didn't use one.
While I like being able to use old automotive technology I don't hold on to it either. I didn't feel anything at the passing of the column shifting three speed. I didn't mind the passing of the 4 speed. I was surprised at the advent of the 6 speed. But to tell the truth I am far more impressed with the engine and tire technology in new cars than I am in the transmission. If, and I will add this as a big if, they made a streetable sequencial paddle shifter as an after market option for either of my cars and it got me from 0-60 in .5 seconds faster than I can get today, I would put one in assuming I could afford it. Why? Because it would make my car than much better than someone without it. Unlike our earlier poster I don't have as big a problem with a mechanic. My son is one, two of my best friends have race cars and both have a full team working on them. There are very few tools I can't get my hands on when something needs fixing.
I would disagree that neither my wife no I am an enthusiast when it comes to cars. I have built and driven rock crawlers from the frame up. I have changed a U joint on a CJ while parked on an incline driving up the Hammers in Johnson valley. I have raced a Austin Healey Sprite at a Club race at Laguna Seca and I once got a chance to race the road course at the old Riverside raceway before it became a shopping Mall. I have wrenched for a friends team at Carlsbad when he was running a Porsche 914-6. And I know it is better to fix the way the car handles or shifts or performs than it is to let the driver fix it by modifying their driving style.
So you may be correct, we see things from a different perspective. I might be better behind a set of Craftsman tools than I am at compitition driving but I doubt if that makes me a non enthusiast. But you are right about one thing, feel to me has to be objective, it equals numbers, skid pad, slalom, 0-60 and 60-0. It seems that feel to you is subjective, at least as I see it.
But even with all of this being said, where do you see the automotive industry headed? Not thinking of ourselves, is there an advantage to the government, the environmentalists, and the manufacturers to continue along the path of manuals or do you see the US moving towards another direction?
does this improve your fuel economy over leaving it in gear, or driving an automatic trans version?
Note that I said "driving enthusiasts". There is no doubt in my mind that you are an extraordinary car enthusiast and could run circles around me with your mechanical skills. But just as you said it was more fun to restore an old TR3 than drive it, I seek out twisty roads for my 911 and let the dealer change the oil.
"But you are right about one thing, feel to me has to be objective, it equals numbers, skid pad, slalom, 0-60 and 60-0. It seems that feel to you is subjective, at least as I see it."
I absolutely think there is a subjective component to "feel". And there is even a subjective component to overall performance. We all want cars that are quick and great handling. But I would take a $32k S2000 over a $132k SL55. The latter is quicker, with 469 to 240 horsepower, but the lighter, much nimbler S2000 will run circles around the bloated SL on a track. And "feel" much better on my Rock Creek Park commuter run. I'm also sure you've noticed that most of the car magazines add a subjective element to performance and feel as well. They try to come up with 4-5 objective measurements, but that certainly doesn't capture every element of performance, as some cars, like the S2000, consistently beat other apparantly "superior" cars around a winding Grand Prix style track.
About 30 years ago, I scored 790 on my math SAT's and went on to get an BS and MBA from one of the most quantitatively oriented universities in the country. I guess because I can do numbers in my sleep, I also respect that not everything can be measured in numbers. Lord knows, I didn't pick my wife based upon a mathematical algorithm. Knock on wood, it worked out well.
P.S. The current high end SMG's/paddle shifters (BMW, Porsche, Ferrari) are still not as quick as their manual counterparts, so you don't need to start saving your money just yet. But even if they were, I don't consider 0-60 as a holy grail. Test drive a 911S 6-speed like mine. It is so precise, so positve and EVERYTHING is controlled by you - why mess with that? A fellow Porsche enthusiast friend of mine agrees. He will be ordering a 2007/8 911 Turbo to replace his 2002. Even though the Turbo is now claimed to be quicker with the Tiptronic paddles, it's only because it has a "launch setting". Driving both models back to back in at the Porsche factory Germany, he found the overall performance of the 6-speed to be better for every driving condition except red light drag races.
I simply contend that manuals have advanced about as far as they can, technically. They can't move to a seven speed with a dog leg and still be fun to shift. Not with another gate to contend with, a six speed already has two gates. The only logical advancement they can make is sequencial shifting, with or without a clutch pedal. Some of the top of the line sports cars are starting to offer them and there has to be a reason. Either the manufacturers are fools, not something I contend, or the buying public has shown interest. If the new 911 is even contemplating offering a DSG or any other transmission other than a manual that is one less manual offered to the buying public. And if the public takes to them then at some point the manual will become an option as it has on so many other mass produced vehicles. I just don't see that trend changing and I don't see it staying the same as it is now.
The question has been what is the future of the manual and I simply narrow the question to my fellow consumers driving on the freeways and highways in cities all over the US. The manual is in the minority here and seems to be getting more so every day. If you read the papers or pay much attention to the media you might realize that the day of driving for pleasure may become viewed about like smoking in public. You might be able to do it but you will not want to mention it in public. Taking the long way home could be viewed as dimly as driving a SUV when a mid sized car would do just as well. You might call me a pessimist but the trends I see are leading us in that direction. I simply see then as the evolution of the automobile. I see the day when we have a form of radar that will apply our brakes if we get too close to the car in front of us. I know Porsche already has a system on one of their top of the line sports cars that you can't heal and toe because once you touch the break it cuts back on the throttle automatically. I believe skid control, ABS, traction control will become standard equipment before I quit driving. And I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the tree huggers get the manual transmission declared a smog producing device. ( None of these trends happen to be things I had anything to do with nor that I wished for.) I can't see a hand full of sports car enthusiasts stopping that. But you may be right and you can slow the process down. Or at least keep you manual as long as you can keep it running. It might even become a classic if they ever stop making manuals.
PS. I haven't let a dealer change my oil in years. I shop for oil and oil filters like some people shop for shoes. If I get a good deal on good quality double filters and a high grade synthetic oil I will buy a case of filters and two cases of oil. I could no more leave the stock filter box hooked to my intake than I could eat one lays potato chip. That is my line in the sand. Manuals may be yours.
Hmm... let's see... my girlfriend's RSX doesn't upshift on manumatic mode no matter how high you rev. And I hate its guts. Yeah, I really see your point.
That said, I've driven standard manuals that weren't worthy of the name either. And I think that hypothetically, if a slushbox like my girlfriend's were stuck on manumatic mode (with no automatic override), that transmission would have more manual-ness than a DSG that upshifted at redline. I would want terminology that hints on the level of driver input needed (different shades of semi-automatic).
But I'll go with your stricter definition of manual.
You take a manual in overdrive at about 75 mph, you downshift to pass, meaning to get 4th but get 2nd instead, and the engine blows. That's a manual.
DSG's computer would block that, sure, exactly. And that's bad because?
Not sure if you can shift more than one gear at a time, with DSG that is. Toyota's SMG let you do that IIRC but it felt so unnatural and clunky I could not recommend it.
-juice
DSG's computer would block that, sure, exactly. And that's bad because?"
Ummm, I don't believe that I ever said it was bad, I simply said that any transmission that has such computer intervention isn't a "Manual Transmission", it is either an "Automatic" or a "Semi-Automatic".
Best Regards,
Shipo
Basically you made it sound like the computer was going to interfere, well my counterpoint is that some times that is a *good* thing.
We've all missed a few shifts in our life times...
I do agree with the Semi-Automated characterization.
-juice
Hmmm, well that has never been my intent, sorry if that's how I came across. I've never made it a secret that I MUCH prefer to stir my own gears; however, I have no problem sharing the world with cars that are not equipped with automatic transmissions, just so long as I can still buy my car of choice with my transmission of choice.
Regarding SMG and DSG technology, I find it intriguing and even applaud Audi's efforts with the DSG. Does that mean that I want to drive one? Not a chance.
Best Regards,
Shipo
Technically you can't, you shift up or down sequentially meaning there's a momentary stop in each gear. Being able to go from top gear to say second or third very quickly is one of the charms of the DSG and, yes, the computer will block you from shifting into a gear low enough to overrev.
2001 BMW 330ci/E46, 2008 BMW 335i conv/E93
Oh wait, no I actually like to drive. Can I have a car that lets me drive please?
Okay so this wasn't a rational rant, but someone is going to have a very hard time trying to get me to pay top dollar for a car without a clutch pedal I don't get to shift myself.
I think in few more years you will have a hard time finding a clutch...at least in any but the cheapest cars. It will become like wanting a car without power windows or without A/C.
How many have this romantic attachment to a clutch pedal? I doubt it is enough to keep them around in very many cars.
I have had manual transmissions, but the advantages were more power and control and maybe even better gas mileage...and the responsiveness due to the absence of a torque converter. I don't think it was ever really about pressing the clutch pedal and moving the shift lever for me. I liked being able to do that fairly well, but I don't think I will miss it.
Pretty soon, you will just get in the car and say "Drive!" The computer will engage the transmission in D and away you will go.
Call me a dinosaur, but I hate every pixel of that mental image. Pretty soon, driver involvement in the primary task at hand will be nil. That's why Volvo needed to invent that system that watches your eyes to make sure you are not falling asleep. :sick:
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Or the most expensive.
"How many have this romantic attachment to a clutch pedal? I doubt it is enough to keep them around in very many cars."
Me for one. My wife and two children for two, three and four.
Best Regards,
Shipo
I agree with your assessment however. Like the car commercial where the girl walks up to the car and the door simply opens to her touch. No key needed. No fob operated door lock either. Once inside she simply touches and turns a knob on her dash and the car starts, no key again. With driver memory I am sure the seats adjust to her presets as well.
What percentage of cars are sold with MTX? How many of those are sold that way only because of price? How many of the remaining buyers would opt for something like DSG, were it available? How many does that leave...1% of buyer maybe?
I think even in the case of expensive cars, something like DSG is likely to mean the end of the clutch pedal.
That explains some of our different opinions.
"I simply contend that manuals have advanced about as far as they can, technically. They can't move to a seven speed with a dog leg and still be fun to shift. Not with another gate to contend with, a six speed already has two gates. The only logical advancement they can make is sequencial shifting, with or without a clutch pedal."
I know I sound like a broken record, but WHAT the hell is it that you are trying to "advance"? The precise short throw 6-speeds in all of the high end sports cars I've driven (Porsche, BMW, Ferrari), without exception, outperform their SMG counterparts. Even in your pedal to the metal drag race. Both on objective "numbers" and in subjective "feel". If we started with an SMG, a 6-speed manual would be an advancement.
"Some of the top of the line sports cars are starting to offer them and there has to be a reason."
Yes, SMG's and DSG's are a good alternative for a fully automatic slushbox. And I don't fault Porsche or Ferrari for making a buck off a sale to someone who can't or won't drive a stick. (Although Honda pretty much told them to pound salt with the 6-speed only S2000).
"I see the day when we have a form of radar that will apply our brakes if we get too close to the car in front of us. I know Porsche already has a system on one of their top of the line sports cars that you can't heal and toe because once you touch the break it cuts back on the throttle automatically. I believe skid control, ABS, traction control will become standard equipment before I quit driving."
Hello? Where have you been? All of those items are already available in numerous production cars. Except that I am unaware of any "top of the line" Porsche sports car that doesn't allow you to heel toe shift.
I am not a techno-phobe and both my TL and 911 have many of the safety systems you describe. And the 911 even has "Porsche Active Suspension Management" - an adjustable suspension that lets me go from normal to serious sport firmness at the push of a button. Great technological "advancements".
I don't even have a problem admitting polyester, rayon and nylon are technological advancments over natural fibers for many applications. But that doesn't mean I'm about to trade in my wool suits, cotton shirts, linen pants and silk ties for a petrochemical wardrobe. (After all, I still like driving the long way to the dry cleaners
Perhaps we can conclude this discussion by agreeing to disagree that SMG's and DSG's in production sports cars are an "advancement" over a manual transmission?
P.S. I did change my own oil and filter no less than 40 times in 155k miles on my Maxima (every 4,000 miles or so) Unfortunately, the 911 requires you to put the car up on a lift. Given that the 997 model with 9.2 quarts of Mobil 1 doesn't require an oil change for 2 years or 20,000 miles, I'll gladly leave it to the dealer, although I'll probably do it at 1 year and 10,000 miles out of cautious habit.
Maybe it's just wishful thinking; however, I do believe that there will be enough folks who DEMAND three pedals under the dash to keep it as an option on some cars for quite some time. :shades:
Best Regards,
Shipo
You can't do this in most modern cars because there's an electronic nanny that cuts the power to prevent overrevving. How is the electronic nanny in the DSG any different from the rev-limiter?
Either could be defeated by a savvy software programmer who will no doubt be willing to
help in your quest to wreck your engine.
Sadly there are very few modern engines with the
rev-happy torque curve of the Lampredi/Fiat DOHC four so there's little point in not shifting at redline IMO. :shades:
2001 BMW 330ci/E46, 2008 BMW 335i conv/E93
You can't do this in most modern cars because there's an electronic nanny that cuts the power to prevent overrevving. How is the electronic nanny in the DSG any different from the rev-limiter?"
Good, bad or otherwise; rev-limiter or not, it is REAL easy to over-rev ANY car with a true manual transmission. How? Simple, downshift to second from say fifth while doing 100 mph. ;-)
Best Regards,
Shipo
Go to forums for certain youth-oriented vehicles to remain unnamed and you'll see tons of "oh noes, I blew my engine!" threads. But with a mechanical connection there's no way to avoid that. At some point Honda will get tired of being asked to replace engines and decide it trusts HAL more than your local stickshift n00b. I hope they give our left leg something fun to do.
However, on the issue of "technological advancement", I take a firm stand with Shipo and Habitat and part company with Boaz.
The idea that an SMG is somehow an advancement or better than a true three pedal 6-speed manual because it employs more "technology" is pure BS. PERIOD. Get your gear head out of books and manuals and get your butt in the seat of a real sports car to see for yourself.
I own a 2003 M5 6-speed and was anxious to try out the new M5. What a dissapointment. The 7-speed SMG is not without quirks, hesitation and unexpected shifts in automatic mode. Combined with i-Drive, BMW has screwed up royally, IMO. Thankfully, they partly realized their sins and are introducing an M5 6-speed manual this fall. Too late for me - I've decided to keep my 2003 and supplement it with a 2007 911 Turbo (6-speed).
I have ample seat time in both the Ferrari 360 and 430 as well. Don't tell me their paddle shifting SMG's - the best examples of such units in any car - are a performance advancement over a row your own 6-speed. They are NOT.
A distinction was properly made as to why paddle shifting SMG units in Formula One race cars offer an advantage to race drivers that benefit from keeping both hands on the wheel. As do their slick tires that need replacing every 40 laps. And roll cages that can absorb 200 mph crashes. And helmets that keep your head attached to your shoulders in such unfrotunate events. I don't see too many Ford Focus drivers wearing a helmet, although they probably should.
This gizmo infatuated society we live in is causing some people to favor technology for technology's sake. And their losing their ability to distiguish between actual advancment and gimmickry. Buy your wife a car with heated, air conditioned, automatically messaging front seats with a pop up coffee maker in the center console if you want. But don't try to tell me or any serious driver that SMG's are advancements over manual transmissions in a production sports car or performance sedan.
In the 1920's and 1930's, approximately 70% of all homes constructed were designed by an architect. They were constructed in real neighborhoods. By 2000, fewer than 3% of all new homes constructed were custom designed by an architect. The vast majority were bang up tract homes by regional or national builders in suburban subdivisions with all the uniqueness and architectural appeal of a tool shed.
Notwithstanding this trend, architects are still around and the neighborhoods built in the 1930's are often the highest value, highest appreciating neighborhoods in many metropolitan areas. Now, there is even a trend to return to those design principles with "traditional neighborhood design" developments in suburbia.
You and I can speculate all we want about trends. I have a mid 8 figure net worth and just saw a demographic report showing that there are at least 100,000 people ahead of me in this country to get on the Forbes 400 list. Not to mention the few million with a 7 figure net worth. The likelihood of Porsche, BMW or Ferrari of failing to cater to this market's preferences is pretty low, no matter what the masses are relegated to in transmission choices by those pillars of marketplace prowess, Ford, Chrysler and GM. After all, as a private company, Porsche is worth more than the Big Three combined.
My crystal ball is no better than yours as to what the style of evening wear will be 20 years from now. Or my daughters fashion preferences next week. But I have pretty good business and marketplace intuition. The automatic transmission has been around longer than I have. It has steadily replaced the manual among utilitarian vehicles throughout that time. But neither I, nor my sports car buying buddies, are worried that we will be relegated to choosing between various forms of automatic, quasi automatic and semi automatic options. And, take heart. One of my younger business colleagues with a 10 figure net worth and a place on that 400 list has assured us that he will buy/start his own car company if it ever comes to that.
Maybe it's just wishful thinking; however, I do believe that there will be enough folks who DEMAND three pedals under the dash to keep it as an option on some cars for quite some time.
It will also be an option as long as they can sell for a lower price with manual transmission, even if few buy them...being able to say price is $19,900 instead of $20,900 will keep manuals available.
For the commoners who want a manual, it might be more important to see what decisions European consumers are making as that will have a big impact on the future availablity of manual trans equipped cars. European cars all offer manual transmissions, because the market over there is the opposite of here in that most people want manual trans (is that the case in Japan also?). But that has been the so mostly because of better gas mileage for manuals and the high gas prices over there. Now that automatics are getting gas mileage equal to, or even better than, manuals is that changing? Or does the manual still have an advantage because you can still get by with a smaller, less powerful, engine?
In other words, it works as a tool to get people in by selling them on a low price, then moving them over to a more expensive automatic because they don't drive stick.
Fact is, with economies of scale, I doubt an auto costs more to build nowadays, yet they make $1000 more gross, and probably a ton more profit.
Perhaps they'll keep manuals around for that reason alone!
-juice
I've read somewhere reasonable (C&D?) about 5 years ago that in the Corolla, the manual actually costs $800 more to produce.
I believe it. The extra $$$ is because that is what the market will bear. But I'm not surprised the manuals keep disappearing.
If they all shifted like the one in my late '04 Vibe, it woulden't be much of a loss. Recently drove an '01 Prizm, and that stick shift absolutely rocks...
I'm posting from the Fatherland... not counting myself (live in U.S.) and my old man (doesn't care about cars), nobody in our extended family has ever owned an automatic. That includes a bunch of little old ladies...
-Mathias
Does the manual transmission have a future in the "commoners" car, perhaps not. There, it's all about building in volume to the lowest cost. To hell with what a small segment of the commoner market wants. With the model A, Ford even offered you any choice of color, as long as it was black.
But, as you go up the ladder in discretionary income and price, there is definitely a profit opportunity to cater to the wants and desires of smaller segments of the market.
Porsche sells 80%+ of it's 911's with 6 speeds, less than 20% with Tiptronics. That's roughly 60+ years after automatics were introduced and started taking over the mass market. So, if there is a "trend" here, perhaps in another 240 years, all 911's will be sold with some form of automatic.
Porsche, by the way, probably makes more profit on their "full leather interior" option than GM, Ford or Chrysler make on the entire bloody "commoner" car. So the financial incentives may be in favor of Ford or GM not giving you a choice of a manual transmission, but certainly not Porsche. Nor, I suspect, BMW and some of the other high end performance oriented manufacturers.
FWIW, returning from our second home a few weeks ago, I averaged 27.8 mpg for 362 miles at an average speed of 74.3 mph. My wife, drafting behind me in our MDX, averaged 19.9. The 911 is rated at 25 on the highway, the MDX 23. Not that this means anything, but having a car that can run 0-60 in about 4.2 seconds get 27.8 mpg (10%+ over its EPA highway rating) at nearly 75 mph leads me to believe better gas mileage won't be a reason to equip a 911 with a slushbox.
we can all look into the future and make predictions and we can all say if they stop making something we will simply not ever buy the new replacement. But we know better.
And wasn't it the high end buyers and loyal Porsche buyers that kept Porsche from making a SUV? Stupid CEO of Porshe said something like that SUV could have turned out to be one of the best investments Porshe has made in the last 40 years.
Oh, PS, you make very good points, and I have to agree with you mostly on your main point that manuals are ultimately doomed. Just one more stupidity of the car industry.
But we disagree on the timeframe. I think we will still see manuals on sporty cars for the next 50 years. Hopefully on other models too, but if not the sporty cars will carry the torch for my pet cause. :-)
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
With an automatic, you're not driving--you're steering. With a manual, you are driving. But, that's just our opinion, we could be wrong...
-Mathias
Maybe you have a better time line than I do on this but the trend is pretty clear. I have come to the conclusion that thinking anything can, "never" happen in the auto industry is not the wisest move I can make. I never thought a diesel would win a major sports car race. I never thought Porsche would give in and build a SUV. I never thought diesels would be banned in California. Sometimes I don't see how things can happen, like when we are talking about micro cars but that is a wait and see thing. But I also never thought that offering a standard transmission in a car would not mean that the standard was a manual. But in the grand scheme of things I have learned that the minority will either lose out to the majority or pay through the nose to get what they like.
I have been willing to find a way around some of the trends by getting a 3/4 ton truck so I can get a diesel. You and I know I payed for that. I am sure some will find a way to get around restrictions on the vehicles or transmissions they favor in the future. The only caveat I would add is someone will have to be willing to make that same transmission in the Vehicle they want. If somewhere down the line I wanted a manual and Porsche or BMW were the only way I could get one or Jag and Vette didn't come with one I am afraid I wouldn't be driving a manual. I could have bought my f-250 with a V-10 and a stick or a Powerstroke and a Automatic. You know how I think.
This had been one of my reasons for prefering a manual...you used to typically get one more gear. This is starting to change, in a lot of cars you now get the same number of gears either way (or in rare cases, more with the automatic...or effectively more with a CVT).
And hey, you can get an Escape manual, but you have to want the 4-cylinder engine.
And CRV for a bit longer (sigh) but also the Element for a lot longer! :-)
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)