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2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
I suspect that manual drivers in my area hold on to their manuals longer than many Automatic drivers as well. So if it were 93 percent automatics in new cars, even if it were 80 percent, then kids looking for their first car will see a lot more Automatics on the used car lots. Young drivers are far more interested in getting their first car than they are interested in what transmission it has. The cycle will simply continue for the life of those Automatics already produced. The manual has a very hard row to hoe just to stay in the game.
CR-V and RAV4 both dropped the option for their new models.
Grand Vitara still offers one, though.
-juice
It seems "the cause" has suffered a couple of blows this week! :-(
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Not even the sporty-minded RDX. Or the CX7, for that matter.
-juice
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
-juice
With no shift points, similar performance numbers and such a small difference in reported fuel mileage might not the CVT be the biggest challenge to the manual to date? After all you are always in the right gear and at the right RPM with a CVT no matter what the conditions. And in effect you have an unlimited number of ratios for hill climbing or slow cruising. In theory you won't even need a rev limiter. The transmission itself is simpler and has fewer moving parts than a manual, or at least the drawing I have seen of their working pieces seems far less complicated. Could manuals be fast becoming a niche transmission? Does anyone else think the CVT should be less expensive to produce and easier to set up for CARB restrictions?
I'm an ardent supporter of the stick but lemme tell you, whenever I have a car with a "good" automatic, I find I sorta get used to it right quick.
By "good" I mean that the darned thing shifts at the right point, no lugging, no screaming downshifts etc. Don't get me wrong, I'll still get the manual whenever possible, it's just that I used to hate automatics -- esp. 4cyl 4sp ones; always in the wrong gear when accelerating -- but now, not so much. And a CVT certainly ought to help in that regard.
At what point does shifting just become an exercise in being sexy? Not that I object to those, but I'm not optimistic about the long-term survival of the stick.
-Mathias
Not in a sports car or serious sports sedan. I'd agree with Carlisimo that the CVT is likely to appeal more to the crowd already predisposed to an automatic. And in non-sport sedans or economy cars, it may very well replace some remaining manuals.
The Maxima commercial is particluarly funny. Looks like the guy is making the shifting sounds because he would really like to be driving a stick, and the woman is happy that she can put on her make up with no mistakes. The subtitle should be "Maxima evolution from '4 wheel sports car' to chick-mobile".
Even amoung more performance oriented and luxury cars, those that are only luke warm manual drivers already have the temptation of auto-sticks, SMG's and Tiptronics. Now they can also be tempted by a CVT. Personally, I'd sooner drive a golf cart than my 911S with a CVT and my right hand and left foot flinching with nothing to do. Of course, I don't try to put make-up on when I'm driving.
I also thought it was great that the autostick didn't upshift for you. But the downshifts... my gods they're slow and lurchy. I guess they're no worse than me downshifting a manual back when I was a shifting n00b (except slower), but once you get used to rev-matched downshifts anything else is unacceptable.
A Honda manual shifts so sweetly, I can't imagine not waiting to get one v. the automatic. Ugh, no CR-V? next it'l be the Element, which is a complete dog with an automatic.
The question simply is this. At what point will a manufacturer decide there just isn't enough sales to warrant the building of a few niche vehicles with a manual option? Will they be willing to simply make them because they are fun to less that 10 percent of the drivers buying cars? Will they still build them if it is 5 percent?
earlier the contention was that manuals make since in commuting because of their simplicity and fuel mileage. But highway mileage is often more with some of the new automatics. For a commuter a CVT would seem to be a no brainer. You can drink your Starbucks and never spill a drop. And unlike your neighbor the CVT has a full warentee without the caveat that the clutch plate isn't covered. Sports cars are already one of the smallest niches there are so it may or may not effect them. In that case the Paddle shifter seems far more likely to become the transmission of the future because sports cars look for the edge and some are already moving heavily in that direction. BMW, Audi, Ferrari and even MB seem to feel that is a valid transmission for their top of the line sports cars.
I just feel for economy cars the CVT could be the transmission of choice. They aren't designed to be much "fun" to drive anyway. Everything else seems to be moving away from manuals even as we watch, yes, with the exception of sports and sporty cars.
I agree.
The question simply is this. At what point will a manufacturer decide there just isn't enough sales to warrant the building of a few niche vehicles with a manual option? Will they be willing to simply make them because they are fun to less that 10 percent of the drivers buying cars? Will they still build them if it is 5 percent?...Sports cars are already one of the smallest niches...
And Porsche is the most profitabe car company on the planet catering to that "niche". I believe BMW is way up there as well. Personally, not only would I rather drive a Porsche or BMW than most other cars, I'd also rather be a shareholder in a smaller company that effectively addresses a "niche" market, than a bigger one that competes with many others in the mass "commodity" market.
When I replaced my everyday sedan (1995 Maxima SE) in 2004, the newly redesigned Acura TL would not have been on my long list, had they not finally offered it in a manual transmission. And although 6-speeds represent a small portion of TL sales, I can point to at least 5-6 friends, neighbors and business associates that subsequently bought TL's over the past 2 years after consulting with me. All but one of those are automatics. I strongly believe that having "enthusiasts" buy your product is important to word of mouth advertising - which can't be bought by companies like GM at any price.
Acura has elected to offer the RL only in an automatic. As does Infiniti with the M, Lexus with the GS, Mercedes with the E class, Audi with the A6. So, next time around, BMW may have a monopoly with the 5 series as far as I am concerned. And for this last time around, had Acura offered an RL "sport" with RWD, V8 and a 6-speed, they likely would have gotten a $50k check from me instead of a $32k one. As it is, they are selling a handful of RL's at near invoice.
Do enthusiasts represent a huge market segment? No. A profitable one? Yes, especially when you consider the collateral marketing benefit of having a product embraced by enthusiasts. And I do not foresee true enthusiasts opting for a CVT over a nice short throw 6-speed manual, even if Starbucks offered a $5,000 gift card to go along with the CVT.
P.S. Think I'm extreme? My wife would have gladly paid an extra $1,000 to 6-speed in our MDX. Not to play Mario Andretti with our kids in the back, but to have a direct control, no hesitation, precise transmission. Perhaps a CVT would indeed be an improvement to the MDX slushbox. It's a weak link in an otherwise nice vehicle.
-juice
Thing is, most of the models offering CVTs don't offer any other automatic option. So how do we know how "popular" the CVT really is? The people who can't drive stick and want that model will opt for the CVT, end of story. Record a sale, and the world moves on. We have no way of knowing how much that buyer likes or dislikes the CVT, or whether he/she would have preferred a conventional geared automatic.
The only ones with whom we can be sure the CVT is "popular" is with the manufacturers. I think they can have their cake and eat it too - it costs less for them to produce, but they can still charge the same premium they charge for conventional automatics.
And yes, I write these words out of fear that what others have said is very true - the CVT will soon replace the manual in compact cars, entry-level models and non-sporty cars. Because it is cheap to build, lower maintenance than a regular auto, caters to the 93% (or whatever it is) of buyers that want an automatic, and gets the same or better mileage as the manual usually.
Me, I will take a pass on the "slipping clutch transmission" in favor of something with a real clutch, even if it means passing on the model that would otherwise best suit my needs.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Put this way, if I am a hard core commuter and the CVT offers manual mileage and manual economy the CVT could easily replace my old manual car when it came time to get a new one. Like I said before the CVT would be more Starbucks and butterfly cookie friendly while in traffic. If on the other hand I win the lottery and move to Beverly hills and my neighbor has a Ferrari and his is a six speed couldn't I easily one up him with a Ferrari and a paddle shifter? And from what I have read the big BMWs, MBs and such sell closer to 99.9 percent of their cars in automatics to the Americans who buy them.
If the third pedal manual is going to survive it will take something very special to save it with all of the options we have.
It wasn't that long ago that many were convinced that as long as we had economy cars the manual was safe. We can all easily see that for pure economy and ease and cost that is no longer true. Some are willing to retreat to the world of sports and sporty cars saying the niche they creat will save them. When true sports cars both in ALMS and WRC have abandoned the third pedal how long car it be before the street cars follow?
The simple truth is just because we as enthusiast may prefer manuals the question has to be, are there enough of us to keep them making manuals? As an off road fan I may prefer solid axles both front and rear because they are easier to life. But can I still get a Solid Axle in the front of on 2010 Jeep? My guess would be, most likely not. Will I give up off roading just because they don't sell a solid front axle? Most likely not. Will I be happy about having to spend more to lift a IFS? Most likely not. But I will still be wheeling. And I suspect many of us will still be buying new cars even if we can't find one in a manual. Anyone have a wife with a mini van?
No. I, and almost all of the enthusiasts I know, would not trade a 6-speed manual for a 5-6-7 speed paddle shifting SMG in any of the high performance cars. I've driven the new 500hp M5 7-speed SMG and would rather have the old 400hp 6-speed. I previously drove the M3 SMG and felt the same way. The 7-speed paddle shifting automatic in the SLK350 is just awful.
And from what I have read the big BMWs, MBs and such sell closer to 99.9 percent of their cars in automatics to the Americans who buy them.
Recheck your stats. AMG does not offer a single model with a manual, so your number there is 100%. But the previous generation M5 ONLY came with a 6-speed manual. And, thanks to Americans complaining about the SMG, the new M5 will offer a manual alternative this fall/winter. FWIW, a 4 year old M5 has a reslae value at least $10k above a 4 year old E55, which was more expensive new. Why? True enthusiasts are far more satisfied with the M5, and the manual transmission is an integral component of that satisfaction.
When true sports cars both in ALMS and WRC have abandoned the third pedal how long car it be before the street cars follow?
Those aren't pure sports cars, they are race cars. Capable of hitting 2.5+ g's in the corners. An SMG is an advantage when you need to keep both hands on the wheel going around 2.5 g corners, but there isn't a "pure sports car" for the street that can pull half that. But more significantly, their paddle shifting SMG's are $20,000 units that get replced every two or three races. You aren't going to tell me that you think 150 mile race tires are going to replace street tires on "pure sports cars", are you? Lastly, Shumacher has gone on record advocating a return to manuals. Racing should be about good driving skills, as well.
As to your other contention. Let me look at Edmunds and the BMW 7 series. Let see how many are offered in Manual? Opps, better try something else. The E-class? Opps nope. Lets step back to the Top of the line Toyota Lexus sports Coupe. the SC 430? Darn the luck. But then some people see no reason to look into the future because they believe they alone will stem the tide of change.
What will your stand be if Hybrids succeed? How about fuel cells? No problem? Electric cars, darn a six speed dog leg makes sense in one of those.
What I prefer in a transmission makes no difference at all in the world of profit making manufacturers and government controllers. By the way, SMG is not the same as a true paddle shifter and any pure sportsman could campaign a non paddle shifter in WRC if they liked. But they don't and they won't because tradition will always take a back seat to winning when it comes to racing.
Traditionalist always shout the loudest when technology first attempts to change their lives. When I got my first sail boat we were all encouraged to learn navigation with a sextant. I spent many hours taking classes and shooting the moon down at the beach learning to fill out the tables and compute my position. When we would go sailing my wife found it disconcerting when I would go below to chart our position. When it was her turn she would simply look at our old loran and plot the course. Later we got a GPS. now they are so inexpensive you can have two or three for backups. And I haven't bothered the sextant since. But even today I have friends that insist on teaching celestial navigation. More power to them but it is a fading talent.
A manual is only one part of the car it is not what driving is all about. Never has been and never will be. In this one case I believe Shumacher is full of Bandini and is very much like old men wishing for the good old days. Assuming his statement wasn't pure hyperbole. A manual driver isn't by definition a better or a worse driver than one that drives and automatic, CVT or True paddle shifter. Manuals are simply a way of moving a vehicle forward or reverse. No more and no less. If the day ever comes when manuals are not profitable the manufacturers will drop them and tossing ourselves in front of the bull dozer will not matter much.
However there may be hope. Every so often they do come back with manual convertable tops. You can just stop, get out and lower them by hand. Very dependable.
I personally think driving down the street should also be about good driving skills, and not cars that are "Starbucks and butterfly cookie friendly while in traffic". :confuse:
Anywhere in the US, that is.
I don't think the Camry is the best example for this discussion though. While it is no doubt a dependable and reliable car, the typical owner is probably not the kind that likes to shift their own gears or take a family sedan out for a spirited drive in the country. The Civic on the other hand, while a great majority of the sales are with the automatic, I do see quite a few MT Civics (and even more MT Fits).
There are dozens/hundreds of excellent cars available in Europe, all with manuals, that could be sold in the U.S. They're not -- why? Because every vehicle (or drivetrain combination) sold in the U.S has to endure a huge pile of (fill in the blank) to be sold here, much of which has to do with getting the EPA certificate.
Most of you probably aren't old enough to remember when any Chevy or Ford could be spec'd out with a variety of rear-end, transmission & engine combinations. Those days are long gone.
Otherwise, BMW, VW, Audi, Ford, Citroen, Nissan, Honda & many others could offer their manual transmissions that they sell primarily in Europe here as well (diesels, too). They're already making them and selling them in huge quantity elsewhere -- why not sell a few here?
Your tax dollars at work.
I believe for this discussion the Camry and Accord are great examples for this discussion. They represent the mainstream in more countries than just ours and they are the best selling vehicles here. It will be a combination of the mainstream and government, on that score "cdnpinhead" have a valid point, that seal the fate of the Manual. When Nissan points to the evolution of the Maxima and lists the CVT as a sign of what Nissan believes evolution is what are we supposed to get from than message? Evolution in most of our minds indicates that something is being replaced by something new. I am not willing to predict the future but if Subaru can become the manufacturer that only offers AWD what would keep Nissan from becoming the CVT manufacturer? We need to remember that automotive enthusiasts are a minority in the car buying public. We took a survey early on in this forum and discovered than most of the people that prefer manuals, even in this forum, have at least one automatic in their fleet. I have two manuals and one automatic. Soon I will have one and one. I still have to wonder at what percent does the manual become more trouble than it is worth before our favorite manufacturers stop offering them. It doesn't do any good to say we can always change manufacturers because if I had an option between a Automatic Toyota and a manual VW I would not get the VW at gun point. The transmission is secondary to the car. Nice option to have but not worth getting something I don't like over. We live in a society of doing things the easy way. Micro wave food, fast food restaurants, MTV and Game boys. We have a whole generation raised on Text messages and Cell phones. Next time you are at a gathering or dinner party see if telling people you are a car nut, love manual transmissions, and believe they should pass a law banning Cell phones, automatics and fast food from the average car and see if they don't start looking at your knuckles to see if they have been dragging on the ground. Better yet, go into any high school class room and tel the students that they shouldn't be allowed to drive until they learned to drive a manual first. Chances are you won't make it out alive. yes, some of those kids will someday come to drive manuals, but that 90 whatever percent figure did not come from older drivers alone. The vast majority of our kids are not being taught manual and without knowing how to drive one test driving their first car by default goes to automatics. Ask yourselves,as I have, how can this be changed?
Of course my train of thought is coming from a place where manuals occupy 97% of the cars on the road, fast food is considered somewhat déclassé, and cell phones are illegal while driving, so the guests at the dinner party wouldn't even blink. Same with the kids at the high school who can't get a license without knowing manual...and all of these people are standing upright on two legs with no scrapes on their knuckles.
But it's these differences that make the world great, right?
The Camry and Accord do represent the mainstream in North America, but I can't think of a whole lot of other countries in which this is the case. What are the other ones?
"Evolution in most of our minds indicates that something is being replaced by something new."
Correct, but does that new thing necessarily imply that it is better?
"We live in a society of doing things the easy way. Micro wave food, fast food restaurants, MTV and Game boys. We have a whole generation raised on Text messages and Cell phones."
...and obesity rates rise, while attention spans decrease.
Just fantastic. I personally am not the kind of person to sit back, just say "that's how it's going to be, so oh well", or worse yet participate in it.
...and in my mid-20s, I am part of that generation.
So all in all, we come from two different cultures and have our own views on things. I don't doubt the manual will eventually disappear one day. For the US it will be sooner than anywhere else I think as consumer preferences do change. For Europe, it will be when the last internal combustion rolls off the assembly line.
But the brand new car I just bought is a classic do-it-yourself manual, so I'm set for a while.
And of course, the Accord you see in North America is not sold anywhere else either - Honda designed this model specifically for the NA market, exclusively.
Actually the best hope for the manual is that the out-sized cars (like CamCord) we get here will gradually begin to represent less and less of the global pie for the big manufacturers. In many emerging markets (not to mention large existing markets like Europe where foreign manufacturers are beginning to grab more and more of the pie), the manual still has an iron grip. Go manual! :-)
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
I do apologize to our foreign brothers but you are correct we have a different culture. We tend to be less restrictive in some areas than our european cousins and more restrictive in others. Many even here have tried to restrict such things as driving and cell phone use. But it is resisted so far almost with the same passion we resisted taxed tea in Boston. As a culture we have lost almost all respect for tradition and as you can tell by the numbers we do not like things that aren't easy. You are correct some of us see the manual ending here far sooner than you might in other parts of the world. But in truth our youth simply don't care. Not all of them of course because you can never say all of anything in our country. I don't know how it is in your country but here our youth pack the buying power of a small country and our politicians are responsible to the voters. No one wants to anger that kind of buying power. So no, they will not be standing in line to learn manuals before they get their first car. It will be these kids you are dealing with as the leaders of the last remaining superpower not my generation. But we do believe in the laws of diminishing returns. And if indeed 93 percent of our drivers are driving automatic vehicles you will have to admit that at some point the manufacturers will pull the plug. I might or might not live to see it but the signs are there and the patient is sick. At what point do we decide it is terminal?
I know my good friend Nippon will hold on till the last gear chips off in his last manual. But even he at one point was Forced into a Automatic because he lusted after a car that he couldn't find in a manual. He has kicked himself for it to this day. Still, if he ever decides to go over to a hybrid he may be forced again.
The NA automobile market will shrink in importance on the global stage as the coming decade goes by. Same with the decade that follows. In every market but ours, manuals are the name of the game. Which means its future might be stronger than you think. Or at least I can dream, can't I?! :-P
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Remember I am not the enemy. My fellow members of our society have simply been moving in this ease of use mode for as long as I have been alive. It is that and not what I would or could buy that will determine the fate of the manual in the US. Find a way to make manuals easy to learn on and easy to drive in heavy traffic and on step hills and they could make a comeback. But to a culture that sees driving as a task to be accomplished rather than a skill that will be a hard sell.
I know that we have to test drive a manual before getting our driving licence thirty years ago in Hong Kong. In the past fifteen years, the automatic or manual driving licence are optional as more kids doesn't like to drive manuals.
However, I believe the NA Accord is unique to this market, so the one being sold in Taiwan is probably the smaller, so-called "Euro Accord", right?
Interesting, I see the Corolla is called the Altis in Taiwan. Weird, when it sells as the Corolla in so many places. Does Corolla mean something rude in Taiwanese?
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Taiwan doesn't have the JDM/EDM Corolla (the cars there are much more like here, except without the SUVs/trucks), but it gets its Corollas from Japan hence the Altis name.
Honda has a very small presence in Taiwan. Toyota, Nissan, and Mitsubishi all seem to have 25% of the market, based on my observations. Then there are some Mazdas, Suzukis, and Fords (especially older ones). Some Hondas and VWs and a few of literally every car company you can think of. Oh, and mostly automatic sedans, midsized (US midsized) and compact.
During my frequent trips to Taiwan a couple of years back, I was very surprised to see lots of DC cars, Neon, Stratus and even Caravan models are quite common. That said, my favorite was the BMW 5-Series patrol cars on the highways. ;-)
Best Regards,
Shipo
However, those are all much smaller volumes than the US.
My dream cruise car would be the BMW 5 series TDI and a 5/6 speed manual.
Japanese used to keep the good stuffs in Japan without exporting to other countries. The exporting Lexus brand in Japan is still under the brand name of Toyota and not Lexus.
And Nissan will keep their top of the line "Skyline" in their own country.
I didn't see many BMWs though, and certainly no patrol cars! Must've been quite a sight. From what I saw, Mercedes Benz seems to own the luxury market, and there's a very small sport-luxury following (or sport of any sort).
You should have stopped while you were only a little behind in getting my point. The Lexus SC430 is a "sport" coupe? Ha, ha, ha. Right up there with my Aunt's Buick.
P.S. Why do people "sail" anyway? Don't you know outboard motor technology has made wind reliance obsolete??
How come you didn't get the stick? In an Outback, sticks are pretty easy to find.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Sailing? I have often been asked the same question. But I had an Iron jenny like most sailors. Diesel inboard and used when I just had to get some where. Maybe that is where I got the idea that a computer assisted sequencial shifter would be cool. You could shift like a manual if you wanted and have the computer shift for those times when the wife wanted to meet you at the club after a race and wanted to wear heels? But alas after moving to the mountains I gave up the boat. If I got another one it wouldn't be one left in the water and it would have more HP than my car. But it would only have forward, Neutral and reverse. I like the idea of getting to catalina in 45 minutes rather that 4.5 hours. My wife however just doesn't think I need one. Something about retiring. Oh well.
And about the sequencial shifter not being practical? We have a racing class of car over here called a Legend. Looks a bit like and old 32 ford, only a bit smaller. They come stock with Yamaha 1260 cc engines and you guessed it, a sequencial shifter. The transmission quite often lasts the whole season and is a lot faster than a dog leg would be. Puts out more HP that a xA. Wouldn't that make a great econo box for the street?
So there seems to be a lot of race cars going to sequencial shifters. Champ cars, Indy cars, F-1, Alms, most of the faster sports cars and WRC. Just seems like every year we get more and more options to the dog leg manual. I wonder why? :P
I am only jerking your chain. I know some people are passionate about manuals. Some people even believe it takes skill to drive one. I too drive manuals. I have driven manuals for years, on and off. I was even a professional truck driver for about ten years and started out in a 11 speed over. Buy the time I quit driving I think the transmission was a 9 speed. The stick doesn't make anyone a better driver. Lots of foolish people drive sticks. The stick doesn't connect you to the road it only allows you to pick the gear you want to be in at the time you want to be in that gear. Anyone can do it if they want. And there is the rub, in our country most people do not want to take the time or the effort to shift for themselves. Driving is a job to be done to get you to work or take to to a place to play. It seems as if 93 percent of my fellow Americans agree with me. Give me those odds at a race track and I will never have to work for a living again. Maybe in Europe things are still up for grabs, but not here. The fat lady isn't singing yet but she is heading for the opera house.
It's often about robustness. Manuals don't (often) break. When they do, they're much less expensive to diagnose and/or fix.
That's where these sequential manu-matic, dual-belt all-singing, all-dancing devices tend to fall down -- reliability & maintainability.
It's not just that the automatics don't do what you want (exactly) when you want (exactly) how you want. When they don't (which is often), they cost a fortune to fix.
Wish I knew that before spending $1400 to repair the manual transmission on my son's 2001 Saturn L200. The entire front end had to be dropped in order to get to the parts that needed to be replaced.
I've been told that when the manual transmmission on the L-series is prone to failure - of course, I didn't know that until after I'd bought the car for him.
Best Regards,
Shipo