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Yup, forgot that one.
Best Regards,
Shipo
2009 BMW 335i, 2003 Corvette cnv. (RIP 2001 Jaguar XK8 cnv and 1985 MB 380SE [the best of the lot])
Those F1 SMG racing transmissions cost $20k and are rebuilt/replaced after just about every race. Comparing any automatic to that is like comparing a Cessna to an F16. And for whateever it's worth, it is my understanding that Michael Schumacher is promoting a return to the true manual for F1 racing. Hopefully, he'll have more luck reigning in racing technology than Jack Nicklaus has had with golf clubs and balls.
Skip Barber doesn't care what you drive after you take their course, Buy a CVT equiped hybrid, if you want. But there is value in learning how to master complete control of a car, which can only be done with a manual. Ever try feathering an SMG clutch?
There is a lot of passion from people on this subject but we keep avoiding the question, why is the manual a second class transmission in the US?
You want to try that again? So anything that doesn't appeal to the lowest common denominator of the general population is "second class"? Automatics tend to appeal to that segment of the population that either doesn't care much about performance or driving dynamics, or considers manuals too much "work". They seek to maximize convenience over performance - and that's fine, for them. But I wouldn't call an architect designed custom home "second class" just because our advanced economy has devolved into 97% of new homes being built by mass production tract builders. I have yet to own a car in which - for me - the 6-speed version isn't vastly superior in terms of control, performance and fun compared to the automatic and/or SMG version. That may not matter to the masses that prefer convenience. But it's hardly a second class alternative for someone like me who also rejects the "convenient" alternative of polyester clothes and vinyl sided houses.
Be careful when you equate mass market appeal with "first class" and anything else as "second class". In my opinion, there is a lot of evidence that mass market often has no class.
Yes, and yes to the first question answers the second.
So as a snap shot, even the quintessentially American sports car the Corvette, has 75% of its overall production being automatic. This is despite the Z06 model which 100% of its production being manual. I am sure that if the Z06 offered a choice of transmissions the % of automatics would still further increase.
I think you may have become too strong of an advocate of the SMG without actually ever having experienced one yourself. In my last shopping go around, I considered and drove both the M3 SMG and 6-speed, as well as the 911 S Tiptronic and 6-speed. Short of the Ferrari 360/430, the Porsche and BMW are two of the best "paddle shifters" on the market. And yet, I can assure you from first hand experience, both give up a fair amount of off the line acceleration compared to their true manual counterparts.
Acceleration aside, enjoyment cannot be measured on an objective scale. Shipo and I would probably take a 6-speed manual version of the new M5 over the 7-speed SMG, even if the manual was slower. The enjoyment we get out of rowing our own is worth more than 0.2 seconds 0-60 either way. I would even argue that "comfort" is subjective as well. I cannot get comfortable with an automatic transmssion that I don't control and upshifts and downshifts at different times than I would. And even the driver controlled BMW SMG had a nasty little hesitation from a dead stop that made me very uncomfortable sneaking left turns into oncoming traffic. I wouldn't have thought twice with a 6 speed manual.
"They are not the transmission of choice then? Then future of any technology depends on it's acceptance by the people paying the bills and those people are not buying. The future of that technology does not depend on a few of us but it depends on most of us."
The automatic may be the transmission of popular choice. But - back to my example - so is vinyl siding the material of popular choice for new housing construction. And even I can't argue that it isn't "technologically advanced" compared to old fashioned stone and stucco. But, thank goodness, it is not the material of choice in our neighborhood and has even been prohibited in others.
You seem to be trying to argue that the manual transmission is doomed because - in your opinion - it is old fashioned and less "popular" than automatics. I really don't think so. Perhaps in commodity cars like Camrys and your average Ford or GM. But, last time I checked, there were about 150 "cookies" to choose from in the automobile supermarket. And they each come in a wide variety of flavors (colors). The most profitable - Porsche - has never attempted to become the most "popular". They still sell 80%+ of it's 911's with good old fashioned short throw 6-speeds that are a hoot to drive.
We don't need to debate which transmssion choice is the most popular. But please reconsider trying to extrapolate too much from mass market appeal. The theatres in New York haven't closed because of the popularity of movies. And stone and stucco are not "obsolete" thanks to vinyl siding.
And lastly, try actually driving the two versions of a 911 or M3 before you jump into a paddle shifter in that hot second.
It is the competitive nature in me that yearns to drive a real Paddle shifter. When someone waves the red flag of performance I smell castrol. That may be why we see things so differently. I have driven one of the old MR-2 paddle shifters and it wasn't all I had hoped for but it was a great start.
To me and many that have tried racing we see the sport as both technology advancing and adrenaline pumping. I row my own gears now and sometimes I have had to row them quite hard, even against the Rev limiter. I have had my PT to 15.23 in the quarter which is quite a bit slower than the built Ranchero I had back in the 60's. Rowing is great I agree. But getting the better of another enthusiast is even better. If I could cut another .88 off of the best 1/4 mile time I ever ran I would have been in the 10's. Can you even imagine how that feels?
When I commuted to LA driving was a bore. Nothing could make it interesting other than a good CD and Starbucks. When I moved to the mountains traffic wasn't a problem and curves are interesting. But still there are times when I can imagine the absolute thrill Grunholm must feel when he simply touches that paddle and gets exactly the shift he wants, every time. In my younger days I raced sportsman motorcycles at both Riverside and the old Ontario tracks here in southern california. I was shifting six gears way before any who only drive cars was. And I know how fast shifting "can" be. The sequencial transmission makes so much more since to me than the third pedal H shifter ever has.
I also drove truck for 10 years and only ever used the clutch in first for at least eight of those years. Diesels hardly even need a clutch. Except to start and stop. I have shifted and been paid to do so. I have raced both on the track and autocross, as we once called it, in college parking lots. Yes I know some enjoy classical music, I tend to like rock and love the drums. But before I die I would love to get behind the wheel of a ALMS car with a paddle shifter and just once feel the thrill of nano second shifts. Today I have to be satisfied with what we get in our passenger car. But as for a Porsche and BMW I have had a chance to experience a street SMG. Not the European one however. They had an event in San Diego where we were invited to come look at and drive the new BMWS. If you and I were on a starting grid next to each other I can promise you I know who would get to the first turn first. (The competitive nature coming through.)
As far as hybrids and green cars go, I still say the poster child of Toyota will make the manual a hard sell. In fact they have no intention of risking their green banner to a manual.
You are right, that's not my definition of performance. But I'll be happy to put up the keys to my 2005 911S 6-speed to the keys of a Tiptronic in a 1/4 mile or 1/2 mile race.
According to Porsche's published figures, the 0-60 and 0-100 times for the 6-speed and Tip are 4.7 / 5.1 and 11.0 and 12.0 respectively. But, in actual road tests, the 6-speed was timed at 3.9 and 9.7. So I figure even an old fart like me could hesitate a shift a bit and still be well ahead at the end.
A bit more risky than a 6-pack, but I'm up for it if you are.
As many of you also know, there were no Caravans of any type built in 1998 with a manual transmission, meaning that I'm currently driving a slushbox for the first time since something like 1976. :-( To make matters worse, this afternoon, just as the DGC flipped over 109,000 miles exactly, the transmission jerked a few times and then lunched itself, locking the front wheels in the process. Double :-( Geez, most manual transmissions are just getting broken in at 100K.
Damn I wish I had a manual! The sad truth is that try as I might, there just ain't no way I can justify a new ride, so, one more year on the Caravan and then something with three pedals and six slots with numbers at the ends of said slots. ;-)
Best Regards,
Shipo
Like I said for a real paddle shifter with a sequencial shift pattern I doubt I could be beaten by a third pedal car of the same class. And of course I would have the option of using a SMG like a automatic if I were going out with the wife and friends to a dinner party. But that is only part of the point. Top end performance cars are putting SMG type paddle shifters in their sports cars and my prayer is they trickle down to us. The third pedal has its place but it is old school and technology will some day work against it. With out a crystal ball I have no way of knowing how long it might be but there is no where for manuals to go. They are outclassed on the race track and out comforted in the top of the line cars. I have been wondering if any luxury cars ever come with a manual. Only a few of us are still driving them and even I would get something else if I had to commute. I am glad I don't by the way. Kids are learning to drive automatics and CVTs are on their way. Toyota's best selling hybrid doesn't even have a manual option and I would be surprised if the Camry hybrid I have been hearing about will either. People in these forums can't even agree on what it will take for manuals to make a sales comeback. Nippon has been pulling for small light cars with 100hp or so and others feel sports cars will be the last resort. I see them as becoming a small segment of the market till either the greenies kill them or the demand drops off to the point they have to be special ordered. Like the Corvette.
I like the sound of your car however. Same deal if I use my sons CBR1000? It doesn't have a dog leg and I don't think we have the ponies you do but I would give the 1/4 a try.
Et tu Brute? You have a automatic? I would have thought they would have had to knock you in the head and then put you in a mini van. If you are married what does your wife drive?
Three years ago Mrs. Shipo was intending on trading the 1998 in on a new 2003, however, we decided to hang on to is as a spare. Given our decision last year to launch a new business it's a good thing we kept it (sort of) as it has been much less expensive than my former 530i SP 5-Speed (the 5er was leased, the DGC has long since been paid off).
Best Regards,
Shipo
Practicallity often wins out over conviction or passion when we have a family. Or even a business.
ANyway, usually they give us an AT model, boring to me. Bu, I don't drive to the show, just PU and deliver to the school. Today, they wrote up a stick! It seems that they can't tell what it is when the do the paperwork in the computer, so the rep didn't realize until it looked in the cab.
I wanted to give it a try, since the auto is pretty crappy in these, but alas, I didn't know who else would be driving it, so I had to have him find a slushbox instead.
Interesting note, on a truck that size, the AT doesn't have park! Reverse is at the top, and you park it in neutral. At least it has push button start, just like a new BMW!
What is really scary is thinking about how many people pick up a truck they can't handle in the first place, and end up with a manual tranny when they have never driven one before...
2020 Acura RDX tech SH-AWD, 2023 Maverick hybrid Lariat luxury package.
On several occasions, I had to drive straight trucks for work (basically looks like a Uhaul, big box on a chassis) and two little ones were sticks and the big one was auto. The fleet guy used to give the engineers the big one because they couldn't drive stick. Once I took him to lunch in my car (a stick) and he assigned me the smaller manuals from then on, which was fine with me, that big one was terrifying to me in the city.
Where will someone go to learn to drive a manual? Here in California kids are taught by contract companies because the schools themselves aren't offering it. Those contract companies are teaching the next generation of drivers to drive automatics. Now when it comes time to take a test drive in their first car what are they going to chose?
My friend Nippon and some others suggest that entry level cars may be the answer but even there we have discovered that the majority of Civic and Sentra buyers are getting automatics. What would make that change even if smaller, cheeper cars were being offered? After all I am sure no one here thinks the Car sales people are going to take the time to instruct a new driver on how to drive a manual. And worse yet when it comes time to get their license what will be easier to take it in? An automatic they already know how to drive or a manual that they have only driven with a uncle or friend once or twice?
There may be a point where it tapers off but I see it as less demand creates less supply. And less supply creates even less demand.
I think that means that many (some?) pros want the stick because they are cheaper to run and maintain, and are better functionally in something that big. It's just for the DIYs that they get the crappy ATs.
Also, my son asked today if he could learn on a stick at the driving school. For some reason, NJ makes you put in 5 hours driving time with a pro teacher before you can get your permit (probably not a bad idea to save my car/insurance, but how will I monitor that they are teaching him correctly!!!)
That will give me something to do for th enext year, try to find a local place that has sticks. The one most people use actually has the biggest collection of junkers Old K cars, etc.) that you are likely to find anywhere, so some might as well be sticks!
2020 Acura RDX tech SH-AWD, 2023 Maverick hybrid Lariat luxury package.
Where I work now, there are very few people that do, even in the same age group. Whats worse is they drive cars that should be a stick (Camaros, Mustangs, Preludes, and small cars). Its funny, they are the same people that complain about their commute and how much time they spend in the car, where I just fire up some tunes and off I go.
Let me offer a little reality check. I own a 2003 BMW M5 and last year used my rain check to go to the 2-day BMW performance driving course in Spartansburg. In addition to the M5, I had the opportunity to drive M3 6-speeds and the latest SMG. Last week, when my car was in for service, I had the owners 2006 M5 (7-speed SMG) for 2 1/2 days.
Like you, I would be inclined to buy a paddle shifting SMG if there was a noticable performance advantage. There ISN'T, at least not in the very best production versions offered by BMW. In fact, for anyone adept at a manual transmission, there is a noticable performance penalty both in a straight line and especially around a track. The professional BMW instructors will tow the company line in public (politely suggesting it is a personal choice), but privately, not a single one I met owns or prefers an SMG to a 6-speed. The latest 7 speed SMG in the 502 hp M5 left me with a disconnected feel. Thankfully, BMW is bringing a true 6 speed manual in later this year or next.
What you are attempting to extrapolate from Formula 1 is supremely irrelevant to production automobiles. As habitat pointed out, Formula 1 SMG's are extremely expensive, "disposable" units. Formula 1 cars hit up to 3g's in sharp corners. The advantage isn't primarily faster shifting, it's being able to keep both hands on the wheel in the turns. A friend who was on Porsche's racing team in the 1980's weighed 160 and could curl 120. SMG's have definitely taken some of the athleticism out of race car driving. But extending your logic to production cars, you wouldn't be advocating slapping on "technologically advanced" Formula 1 racing tires with a tread life of about 300 miles on your Chrysler PT, would you?
I think I can safely say that there is no current production SMG that offers increased performance to a experienced driver. What they do subject the owners to, however, is potentially quirky behavior and extremely expensive (out of warranty) repairs. My goddaughter just bought a 2005 M3 6-speed. The service manager told her they have received several complaints from M3 SMG owners that the transmission was not behaving properly. Cost of an out of warranty replacement is over $6,000, about 3-4 times the cost of a clutch on my M5.
I understand the new double clutch SMG developed by Porsche for the 997 911 Turbo will potentially have the performance advantages that will make it worth considering. But even then, unless the advantage was significant, the idea of another set of computer chips, automated hydrolics, etc. to replace what my left leg does quite competently (and for free) would be a tough decision.
And, anytime, anyday you want to take me on with a M3 SMG against a 6-speed, you're on. Bring lots of money.
You aren't impressed with sequencial shifting? I have been ever since I had my first quick street bike. You don't care if a computer could allow you to shift manually one day and have the computer shift for you when you were in heavy traffic. I think it is a great idea. The real thing is, they are developing those transmissions even if traditional third pedal drivers don't see an advantage.
I may not live to see the day I can buy a street paddle shifter as good as a WRC car let alone a F-1 but I see them coming and if they get close enough and I can afford one I would have one before I die. We can bench race al we want, I know I was guilty of starting it sorry, but we only have to look at F-1, ALMS, WRC to see if there is an advantage to sequencial shifters. The definitive answer has to be in the answer to this question. Is there an advantage to paddle shifter in "real" performance cars? If there isn't would any of the top drivers in the most advanced cars be using them. If they are and you and I ever got a chance to drive with them what transmission would you prefer?
Let me put it this way.
The thing is that you are NEVER shifting with an Automatic transmissions like the SMG and DSG. The truth of the matter is that when you hit a paddle (or tap/slap the sticklet for that matter), your action becomes an "Event" inside the computer that simply changes the schedule of something that it was already going to do for itself anyway.
"I think it is a great idea."
I think it's kind of redundant if you ask me. ;-)
Best Regards,
Shipo
Another example; when the "go" pedal is NOT touched, i.e., going down (say) a long 5 mile grade "coasting" the system literally draws NO fuel. This would add 5 mpg to your statistics. So if you got 45 mpg with out a long 5 mile grade, the long downhill grade would let you get 50 mpg.
One disadvantage is it does not double (DE) clutch well at all. In fact it is almost pointless to do it. But the other side of that is, how many folks even know what that is, let alone do it?
About a year and a half ago I bought my wife a new sewing machine. Up to that point I might say she was a talented sewer but not much better than average. The new machine looks to be as much computer as it does sewing machine. She now feels she can sew anything and has started making some beautiful quilts. Does she get the same satisfaction my Grandmother got from sewing on a singer manual foot pedal matching? I am sure she does and it gets done in a lot less time. Is the fact that the machine threads itself or will automatically make as many button holes as she wants make the task any less important or less satisfying? How about the fact that you can program it to monogram a name if you like? Or when it is done it will cut the thread itself. You don't have to have the machine cut the thread and you can monogram by yourself and even thread the machine by yourself but I hardly ever see her do it that way anymore. I don't know anyone that doesn't like a task to be easier. Computers are here with us to stay and they will only get better and take over more tasks as time goes by. Will things be more complicated? Oh I am sure they will but even today it is almost impossible to work on your own car without a computer.
With my cars today there is only a hydrolic connection between me and the steering, brakes and even the clutch on most cars. I push on a pedal that compresses a piston that moves the fork connected to the throw out bearing that detaches the clutch from the pressure plate and reverses the process when I take mo foot off the pedal. I am not directly connected to the steering gear, Clutch or brakes unless you consider fluid a connection. I do get to push the car from one gear cluster to another. And of course the transmission is automatically syncromeshed for me unlike the old days when you had to match the gear speed by feel and sound.
Some others have already pointed out that computer control isn't a bad thing. It can be a very good thing as it gets perfected. I think too many of us are reliving the John Henery verses steam steel driving machine. We already rely on computers to make sure we don't run our engines passed a safe limit. We let computers set our choke in the morning and adjust our timing. Computers monitor you engine and tell you when they need servicing. What would be so bad about letting the computer replace the hydrolic piston in your clutch?
Until a transmission control unit (the computer) can be neurally wired into my brain so that I can instantaneously tweak the speed and severity of the clutch engagement on a shift by shift basis, then no Automatic transmission can do exactly as I want it to do. That's what's bad about letting the TCU replace the hydraulic piston in my clutch.
Best Regards,
Shipo
If going downhill on an on-ramp, in traffic, it might make sense to skip from 2nd to 4th. Try that in an automatic.
I'm coming up on 95K miles on my original clutch & expect to get many more miles from it. Automatics of any stripe require significantly more maintenance & are much more expensive to repair or (perish the thought) replace.
The automatic is just another sign of the "lease" approach to car driving. No one cares what the long-term cost is, since no one owns the thing, long-term. Cost-per-mile over 200K miles is beyond irrelevant to 99+% of Edmunds posters. Let's all discuss the 39 month (or 24, or whatever) monthly lease payment. If it craps out, it's not really a problem.
Manuals aren't always about performance or preference -- they are also about repair/replacement cost, or the lack thereof, for the nine people who care. If one is both frugal & appreciative of a manual in a moderately upscale sedan, then so much the better.
As far as downshifting? I never had a problem downshifting to two or three gears lower with any motorcycle I have ever had and they are sequencial. Hand clutch agreed but still no problem. Watching WRC cars go from flat out to sliding stop and seeing them downshift into first or second doesn't seem to be a problem either.
Yes, shipo has a point, and that point is "his" feel even if there is oil between what he feels and what is being done. You don't feel the clutch with a oil feed piston as much as you know what it is doing. You may feel the car moving or the RPM changing or even the sound.
Maybe I should not have said the word You, because I don't know what shipo "feels" with his foot. The hydrolic piston gives his foot an advantage much like a hydrolic jack does over a manual car jack. It was different when you had a clutch that pushed on the shifting fork and disengaged the clutch mechanically but we have already been disconnected from that by hydrolics. Next it will be electronic servos, no more expensive than a hydrolic piston and much easier to replace. My last Subaru used a electronic servo to switch from high to low range AWD. And that was in 1986 or 88 I don't remember any more. But it was not all that complicated.
I understand people that like manuals, I am one. But I don't see purely mechanical connection being maintained. What advantage is it for the manufacturer? Some may be less expensive to make but they are also harder to make meet some of the government standards. Not that manuals are all that bad. Here in California many cars, like the 1.8 Civic using our grade fuel,gets a better green rating with an automatic, because it gets 2 MPG better highway mileage, ( look it up on the governments green car page, http://www.epa.gov/autoemissions/smcar-06.htm ) and the only reason for that is the drivers, the one thing the manufacturer can't control. :confuse:
Maybe we will reach the point where technology won't matter and being true green will fall by the wayside. But if things continue to go the way they have been I don't see the third pedal lasting 20 years. I don't think I am alone in this either. Take a look in the ( Stability control, are you ready for it? ) forum and see what people there are saying. Cars are ripe for new technology and manufacturers seem to be offering people what they want. One car I test drove had a built in hands free cell phone and a remote CD changer. I didn't bother to ask if it was offered in a manual.
I absolutely agree that paddle shifting SMG's have made - and will continue to make - improvements. The aforementioned 997 Turbo double clutch SMG is one such example.
But again, you seem to be stuck on thinking Fromula 1 performance advantages equate to production street car performance advantages. That's where we part company. It would be like you repeatedly saying the Weatherby 300 Magnum rifle is the best gun to use for hunting elk, and I have to keep reminding you we are hunting pheasants. Weatherby may ultimately make a superior pheasant hunting gun, but right now, they don't. Race cars that are capable of cutting around corners at 90 mph and 3 g's are a different breed than production sports cars limited to about 1.2 g's. Your repeated references to racing bikes is another exapmle of trying to pluck an apple from an orange tree.
Even if production SMG performance matches or exceeds manual performance, I believe that the visceral feel of a manual 6-speed transmission will keep it the preference of choice for many driving enthusaists. I accept that Game Boy has produced a contingent that may prefer shifting with their thumbs and may be blissfully ignorant of the feeling of a direct connection to the clutch. But a lot of us prefer the connected feel and the advantages of being able to feather a clutch, heel-toe shift, etc. That's not an objective argument for us to have. It is purely a subjective preference.
As someone else pointed out, it cannot be argued that polyester isn't advanced technology in terms of wrinkle free convenience. But there will always be some of us that prefer the feel of real wool and silk.
That's the crux of the matter, isn't it? Americans want everything as easy as possible. In fact, there is a fair bit of laziness prevalent in the American ethos. In this case, they have copped out so much they don't know what they are missing! ;-)
As for me, I don't want the "task" of shifting to be "easier". In fact, it is absurd to call it a task at all.
There are a fair number of people who are quite attached to the notion that carburetion is superior to fuel injection, and while I am not one of them, I would concede that it can be better in some applications (especially racing applications in cars that don't see street use and don't have to meet emissions standards). Anyway, that one hit home, and I guess I am going to be one of those people made obsolete by the march of technology, even as I continue to proclaim that the manual is much better than the auto.
I have no faith that F1-style transmission advances will make it to everyday conveyances like Corollas and Civics in my lifetime. They are just too expensive and not durable enough for those types of applications.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
I concur. Driving, for me at least, is fun. I feel bad for the people who just drudge around all day in their Tauruses (Tauri?). If shifting is too much of a task, I would say its a good time to re-examine your lifestyle, but thats just me. And if you don't want to shift yourself, thats fine just get an auto. They are easy to find and you can have both hands for your phone and coffee. Alternatively, if someone really doesn' like driving and has no interest in doing so, I recommend public transportation.
I had a discussion much like this with an friend of mine that is a big Apple Mac fan. He assured me there were far too many die hard Mac people for the Mac system to even cease to exist. This year Apple/Max has announced Intel processors will be upgraded into their products. No more Motorolla chips. And what does that mean in the long run? we won't get into that but there is a difference between RISK and Sisk processors.
Why was that story relevant? Because 96 percent of the market for computers had gone to Intel/AMD. How far are we from that point here in the US when it comes to manuals verses Automatics. And street cars are not the test beds for new products, race cars most often are. And in race cars paddle shifters, no matter what the cost, are state of the art and dog legs are old school. F-1 isn't the only one using them. I have heard many call WRC the peoples racing and they are in the same boat. I don't for a minute believe if they mandated automatics in cars as of 2020 any of us would simply stop driving. When they mandated seat belts no one quit driving. But some will say seat belts are for our own good? Follow the path dear friends to it's logical conclusion. Look at the government green car page and see what else might be considered as something for our own good.
While Nippon is a strong supporter of the manual even he will admit that they can be harder to find if you are looking for a complete option package. Don't get that car, you might say, if it doesn't come with the transmission you like? But what if you like the car itself? What if you want a mini van? What if you want a Toyota SE V-6 or SLE V-6 what are you supposed to do? No problem for nippon, he likes small cars but doesn't it show how the manufacturers think? Can't get a manual in a Highlander and this is from the company that sells more sedans than anyone. maybe you feel the need to be green but want some traditional style so you opt for a Accord hybrid? No manual. It isn't just that people are lazy it is also the manufacturers answering to demand.
We may see both sides of this debate and some may be hopeful that the trend will reverse itself. Unless Nippon is correct and we suddenly get a flood of micro cars I don't see much reason to hope things will get better in the manual camp. Time will tell I am sure. I still don't see WRC cars ever going back to dog legs any more than I ever expect to see three and 4 speed manuals again.
(1) SMG's in production cars and sports cars will get better. I've started here, because that may be the only item we agree on.
(2) High end SMG's will not be cheap to make or repair, compared to manual transmissions.
(3) There will always be a segment of the market that prefers a "visceral" feel and control that comes from a manual (and, so far, none of the very best SMG's I've driven). The Honda S2000 sold for a premium to MSRP for over two years (and still has an extraordinary resale value) because some people like the purity of driving. An automatic wasn't offered. Nor were power seats, a navigation system, a Bose stereo, etc. etc.
(4) There will always be car manufacturers that cater to the preferences of the "few". As a matter of fact, while GM and Ford may have eliminated manuals from the majority of their models, Porsche is the most profitable car company on the planet and sells upwards of 70-80% of their Boxsters and 911's with manuals. My dealer will not order or accept an allocation of a Tiptronic, without a buyer's non-refunadable deposit in hand.
(5) Manuals have been declining as a percentage of total cars sold for 20-30 years. Long before you or I knew how to spell SMG. I will agree that for the fence sitters that could go either way, better, improved SMG's will be tempting. But there are still plenty of us that see ADVANTAGES to the less costly, easier to maintain, full control and fun to drive, short throw manual.
(6) There are some like you that would argue that AWD makes RWD obsolete with sports cars. Better grip and traction. But a good system, like Porsche's, adds $7,000+ to the sticker and 200 lbs to the curb weight with a 5-10% loss in drivetrain efficiency.
(7) SMG's vs. manuals is NOT a "one is better than another" debate. So try to get that out of your arguments. SMG offers certain advantages, but manuals offer certain other advantages. And in sports cars, the whole bloody car is an impractical discretionary purchase. Porsche understands this - just look at their option list. Just because they have spent big R&D monies developing technology, they have not mandated $7,000 AWD, $8,000 Ceramic Brakes, and $3,600 Tiptronics. Even BMW, after spending a huge amount developing their 7 speed SMG, has bowed to the US market and will be offering a 6-speed manual M5. I believe you will always have a choice of a manual transmission in a Porsche sports car, even if GM, Ford and Daimler Chrysler, with their infinite marketplace and financial incompetence, think you shouldn't.
If you want to switch yur preference from a manual to a paddle shifter, that's your perogative and you will likely have better choices in the future. But don't get hell bent on arguing a business rationale that because you find shiting gears with your thumbs satisfying, the rest of us are doomed to follow.
P.S. I bought my wife and kids a couple of Apple PowerBooks for Christmas. They don't crash, don't get viruses, and fire up and are ready to go in 1/10th the time of my Windows based Dell laptop. They now run virtually all the office software my Dell runs - faster and better. The video downloading and other capabilities of the Apples are light years ahead of my Dell. I will be switching my entire company to Apples next year. So have your SMG and I'll have my Apple.
You may have bought one of the last Apples with a motorolla chip. If, as Mac has Announced and the commercials are saying, a Intel processor in now the heart of a Mac then the very process of Apple has changed. But then Jobs is far more interested in Ipods than Mac anymore. And at least it will get to the point where Microsoft approved software should be able to run on a Mac. If all professional Macs will be using a Intel processor what will happen to all of the old Macs? Check it out yourself.
http://www.macworld.com/news/2006/02/28/liveupdate/index.php
I'm going to really miss having a reverse gear.
The Powerbooks I bought my wife and kids in December still had the Motorola chip. And they run Microsoft Office better than my Dell - more spreadsheet features, etc. I can e-mail Office files back and forth between the Apples and Dell w/o any issues. From what I (non technical business guy) can tell, the Apple "Tiger" operating system is just much better than Windows.
P.S. 48 hours after right rotator cuff surgery and I'm rowing my own today.
Rocky
Rocky
Geez, the brand new Camry came out and what happened? Why, the press car was a manual-shift SE! I would make a bet that there isn't a manual-shift Camry for sale anywhere in the U.S. right now, but the press car was a manual. I despise the carmakers, particularly Toyota, for that. They should put cars in the press fleet that the public can actually buy. :-(
Now, the new Yaris has come out at the same time, and in that model manuals are pretty easy to find, which was nice when I went for a test drive. Little cars will keep the manual in America for at least a decade or two more. :-)
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Plenty of loaded V6+automatics! Plenty of 4 cylinder automatics with ABS, too.
-juice
With this approach, give me Honda, Scion, or Subaru any day - one fixed set of equipment regardless of transmission.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
I really don't think of myself as a typical consumer, I enjoy driving, my commute is reasonable and traffic is at the limit or better both ways the whole time. I like to feel connected to the car and the road, and I don't need 50000 things going on to keep me entertained. If the car is so isolated it makes me feel like I am in my living room, that doesn't appeal to me. I think most people are driving their kids around or have these horrible commutes because they feel like they need a huge house even though they are never there (because they spend the whole time in the car commuting from the boonies because thats the only place they can afford a house that big). I think their needs are different than mine, but I think there are enough people that feel the way I do that the manual won't go away for quite some time.
I think my favorites are people with automatic Miatas and then complain they aren't powerful enough. Its up there with the people who buy M3s and then want the 4 for $99 tire special.
But that isn't the end of it. I hired a temporary worker a few weeks ago and asked her to make some deliveries of some printed materials for us. She did ok for the first day or two till I had to have the vehicle she was using serviced. When we got a replacement from the motor pool it was a stick, and you guessed it, she couldn't drive one.
Isolated examples may not do much for most of us in here but I point it out to give credence to my point that new drivers simply aren't learning how to drive manuals and because of that the demand for manuals will never recover in the US. Niche market maybe. Sports cars perhaps. Mainstream, not likely because the US is very unlikely to offer a monetary incentive for manual licensing like Europe does.