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Yes, boaz, there's more than one tear in my eye...sigh.
:-/
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Even if those of us driving sticks would really rather not go the automatic route? I mean, driving a slushbox has got to be the most dull, unimaginative manner one could drive a decent car.
Long live our manual tranny's! My next Kia or Scion must have a manual or I'm gonna consider getting one of those Obvio!'s with the fake manual that you can shift fifty times in the forward direction!
Really, thankfully, I don't think that manual tranny's are gonna disappear anytime soon. Dare I say that they'll never disappear? I just did.
2021 Kia Soul LX 6-speed stick
This is just pure speculation on my part but I see future cars as something that will become more automated as the years go by. Looking at the forum on Stability controls or ETC and how they are already becoming accepted as a vision of the future it looks like that is the direction we are headed in. There was something on the news this weekend about Nissan working on a system that will help you brake before you get too close to the car in front of you and the news people were all bubbly about it. Keyless entry with auto start seems only possible with a car that "has' to be left out of gear when it is parked and more and more cars are being offered with that. (to tell the truth on many a cold winter morning I would like to be able to point my key fob at my car and have it start and warm itself up while I stay safe and warm inside with my first cup of coffee. I haven't had a car without power windows in maybe ten years. I have even seen cars with a type of radar for driving in the fog. Rather than looking out of our mirrors we are being offered back up warning devices. My son's last car had a remote for radio/cd tuning so he wouldn't have to reach the extra few inches to adjust the radio by hand.
In reality how do you see things playing out with these new devices becoming available?
True story: I wander through my local Toyota dealer's lot from time to time, and every once in a while I get accosted by a salesman. Well, this particular dealer makes a point of never ordering anything but automatics, so when one of the salespeople walks up and says "want to try something out?", I say "yup, point me to the stick shift" like a wiseacre.
Sometimes they stand there sucking wind, although the really good ones are ready with the stock response: "whatever you want, we could get it in a day". Yeah, but that doesn't help me to test drive a manual today, now does it? ;-)
I was visiting a friend the other day and stopped at this one dealer on the way home to get a couple of things from parts. This was a dealer I would never normally visit, as it is a ways from where I live. Anyway, he had two ENORMOUS rows of Corollas along the front of his lot, so I started glancing over, and whoa Nelly! He had a couple of DOZEN manual shifts, in fact just from a quick survey, it looked like more than half his stock of Corollas were manuals. Sometimes, I feel like I should be going out of my way to take my business to dealers like that, just to reward them for keeping the manual alive. :-P
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
-juice
The so call demise of the manual transmission is really a metaphor for the fact most folks really do not care to behave as if there is a fuel crisis.
Note, this week it had to be driven from NJ to west of Philadelphia, so for the locals, over the WW bridge, out the Scuykill (sp?), and out Germantown pike. The return trip was down the blue route to 95 to the WW, with lots of traffic jams and rain.
Anyway, just driving the 3 miles from the Ryder place to my house almost killed me. This thing was a beast. The clutch was pretty well shot I think, and the shifter was like a broom in a bucket of sand. No defined gate to speak of, it liked to pop out of gear, the clutch engaged at the very end of the travel, etc.
I was able to bash it around locally, although sometimes getting started from a stop was a crap shoot (2nd gear liked to hide), and riding this baby on the hills in traffic was not a pleasant thought.
So, thankfully they got an AT returned, so I swapped it out. Given the amount of time stuck in traffic, I am quite glad. Besides saving my leg, it let me concentrate on staying in a lane (and not running into the idiots that like to cut off trucks), instead of having to look at the shifter to figure out if I was in a gear.
Of course, the same trip in my 5 speed Accord would have been a no brainer and not a bother, but in the future, I shall avoid ancient beast trucks if I can help it.
2020 Acura RDX tech SH-AWD, 2023 Maverick hybrid Lariat luxury package.
2020 Acura RDX tech SH-AWD, 2023 Maverick hybrid Lariat luxury package.
I also have to admit, on my next trip (in the Budget/Ryder) I too was glad that it came with an automatic.
Best Regards,
Shipo
Just think... if you had a big honking diesel straight truck with airbrakes, that you had to double clutch to downshift?
regards,
kyfdx
Class B CDL
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It's odd enough to have an auto tranny with park on it, but probably less confusing since I drive a stick.
I didn't mind the stick (in theory), it's just that the set up in the truck I had was terrible. I have driven other rental trucks years ago that were OK.
2020 Acura RDX tech SH-AWD, 2023 Maverick hybrid Lariat luxury package.
Best Regards,
Shipo
As you say, the 2L Calibers (SXT level and up) are only using CVTs, and unlike you, I did not read that there would be a manual available later with that engine. Which is a shame, as the 2.0 is almost certainly going to be the volume engine in the Caliber.
The CVT is probably the biggest threat to the manual transmission, as it gets the same (or better) mileage usually, is best used in low-power applications, and saps no power the way a traditional automatic does. And the cost is getting down to a parity with a manual transmission as the volume of them rises.
:-(
I will still take the manual for durability alone, never mind the benefits to the driving experience.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
In my quest for statistics I have been doing a little experiment for about a week now. One of the little local dealers had a bunch of Corollas in stock the weekend before last, and I was pleasantly surprised to see he had a bunch of manuals, so for the heck of it I counted. He had 14 Corollas, of which 4 were manuals, in a range from stripped to top-trim and loaded.
And the score is...manuals, 3, automatic, 3.
Last night he still had 8 of the cars I had noted VINs on, and in 10 days he sold equal numbers of manual and auto, including the most expensive manual which was an 'S' with everything and had a sticker of almost $18,5.
Yes, I know, get a life Stuart! :-)
But I hope this dealer sees that manuals do sell, pretty well in fact, and continues to order a healthy mix of them in future. Two of the manuals he had last week were "accidentals", cars originally shipped to a different dealer, for which he must have done a trade out of his own stock.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Even here in NE cars without A/C don't sell. I can't believe anyone would even try. :lemon:
2001 BMW 330ci/E46, 2008 BMW 335i conv/E93
So basically this means almost none of the Calibers will be manuals. I don't know why they even bothered to certify it. It's no good for rental sales either.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
I bet the actual number that get out without A/C is under 1%..
Funny.. I bought my first car in 1976, and didn't get one with A/C until 1990.. No way I would have a car without it now..
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Rocky
There are more than one kind of CVT and some seem more HP friendly than others. The one in the Nissan Murano, the only transmission offered in that vehicle, has 245 HP and 246 FT-LBS of torque.
From a performance perspective the CVT isn't going to make the self rowers very happy. But for the average person there is one or two advantages that simply can't be over looked. As a stick driver have you ever been between gears? Maybe in traffic or on a mountain road where you were just cruising? Ever wished for a seven speed to get that gear just between third and forth or worse yet forth and fifth? CVTs don't have that problem. If you need something between first and second to maintain that perfect speed while creeping along you will be there in a CVT. If you are pulling a long hill and forth is just a touch too high and fifth lugs just a bit, with a CVT you are there. CVT have a way to go but they could be the greatest challenge to the manual for the average driver. Fuel mileage is very close while ease of use is like having an electric motor.
Rocky
Geez, you must be referring to a car with a razor thin torque peak (I'm thinking maybe an old Datsun 240Z or some such). In recent years, what with the advent of VVT, dynamic valve trains and turbocharger induced broad table top-esque torque "curves" (more like plateaus), needing to be "in-between gears" isn't very likely, in fact, just the reverse is often true. With a six speed manual there are plenty of times where any one of two (or even three) gears would work equally well.
Best Regards,
Shipo
Suggesting that CVT's advantage is that 5 or 6 speeds is not enough in a modern car makes for a nice "theory" but not one that I believe for a minute.
The biggest problem with some manual transmissions are the engineering idiots that come up with bad gear ratios. Like GM with the Corvette. It's 5th and 6th gears lug along at such low RMP's that the car can't achieve top speed or redline in 6th, it has to be dropped down to 5th. And it can even achieve a higher speed in 4th than in 6th.
The 911S, by comparison achieves top speed in 6th gear - 182 mph, precisely at 7,200 rpm - it's redline. That is what engineering is all about. Matching everything - engine, gearing, etc. Porsche gets considerably better performance out of a 355hp/295 ft lbs engine than Chevy gets out of 400+hp and 400 ft lbs.
In some ways, CVT is for sloppy engineers, in my opinion. Why else would you use a transmission that, by itself, loses 15%+ of an engines power in drivetrain inefficiency. Just becuase the engineers can't figure out proper gear ratios? I may be wrong, but I thought I read that drivetrain loss is more in a CVT than all but the very worst slushbox automatics.
What is the power loss between a good manual and the engine? No way do we get flywheel HP to the rear or front wheels no matter what we drive or what transmission we have. 15 percent might be more than acceptable. The reward to a CVT might be to always have the "right' gear to match the engine speed and torque requirements.
The truth is people are the biggest problem for modern engineers. They want to make a vehicle that will be as green as possible and one that they can offer a full power train warrentee and the way some people abuse the clutch keeps that from happening in most vehicles.
I'm glad Shipo has never had the between gear problems that face so many of us. Just the other day I was following a Cal trans truck up a pretty steep grade on a two lane road. He was doing the best he could but he was moving right between the shift point between third and forth in my car. Not a big problem for me because I love the sound of my cat back at anything over 3000 RPM but I know for a fact my fuel mileage suffers. But I don't have a CVT yet so I don't know if that would be a problem or Not. Mini Coopers offer CVTs, BMW, Ford, Honda, Nissan, GM and Audi offer them as well. More and more they are being offered in some smaller cars as well. One has to wonder why if the manual is the perfect transmission would so many manufacturers be willing to invest in these transmissions. But they have some advantages for the average person.
http://auto.howstuffworks.com/cvt8.htm
Lets see what happens in the next few years. Maybe some of the engineers will figure out what they are doing and learn that there is no need to look beyond the manual. Then again maybe not.
I see your questions have already been thoroughly thrashed out here, so I'll be brief and add my $0.02 to this discussion.
Infinite gears? No -- infinite range between the tallest and shortest ratios, theoretically. Click here for more info.
There's a maximum torque rating for all transmissions, not just CVT's.
For more info on torque and how it relates to horsepower click here.
I would venture to say for most of the people I know a CD changer is more important than a transmission choice. Even in this particular forum we have discovered than most of the avid manual drivers have at least one automatic in their driveways. The day of the manual dominating the automotive market in the US has long gone and there is very little reason to expect that it will ever come back. I am sure there are many that will hold on to their manuals till the very end but I do not believe for a minute that anyone in here would give up driving simply because their choices were limited to a vehicle without a third pedal.
My friend Nippon may have joined the ranks of automotive minamalist and he may even have a few followers in that regard. I just don't see cars getting more basic as the years go on. There are simply too many vehicles that people buy that don't offer manuals and I can't think of many, if any, vehicles people are buying that don't offer automatics of some kind.
Will manuals be around as long as I am still driving? More than likely they will but there is a chance they won't. My father never thought the three on the tree would ever slip into extinction but it did. Simply being easy to use and dependable will not stop progress and technology. Was the rotary dial phone easy to use? Did you ever have to replace one? When was the last time you used one, even in a phone booth?
Automatics are here to stay in one form or another and I don't believe we can say with any real conviction that manuals have the same assurance.
When, in the last 30-40+ years did the manual transmission ever "dominate" the US market? The fact that automatics outsell manuals is not something new at all. So if you are just waking up to that fact, don't extrapolate too much.
For someone who drives a Ford and a Chrysler, let me predict that in 5-10 years Porsche will still be one of the most profitable car companyies on the planet, selling a fraction of the number of cars that any of the (not-so) Big Three do, ever so unprofitably. And I will also bet that, notwithstanding the liklihood that Porsche will have the top rated double clutch SMG on the market, the majority of 911 owners will still opt for a good old 6-speed.
Ford, Chrysler and GM have butchered the job of catering to the mass market that couldn't tell driving dynamics from a driving range. My prediction is that one or two of them won't be around in 10 years. But the manual transmssion - along with BMW, Honda, Porsche and other successful companies that deliver quality products - are in no danger of extinction.
P.S. "I can't think of many, if any, vehicles people are buying that don't offer automatics of some kind." Honda S2000, previous BMW M5, just to name two. Both of which sold at premiums for 1-2 years after introduction. When's the last time a Ford, Chrysler or GM anything didn't come with a rebate and below invoice pricing within 3-6 months after introduction?
While you are looking into your crystal ball are you saying that ICE powerplants will always be around? And without a ICE engine Porsche and BMW will always offer a manual?
I did make the caveat that I don't know of many vehicles that were manual only, so how close to 700,000 units of the S-2000 did Honda sell? At least Ford knew how to sell trucks.
I would also bet you were one of the ones that didn't see a need for Porsche making a SUV? Doesn't look like that stopped them from responding to the great unwashed masses does it? But we are only speculating anyway. So if I live long enough to see gas powered Porsches with good old 6 speeds I won't be sad. But I might be surprised if everyone else has a hybrid or something more advanced, wouldn't you?
Speaking of too easy? So you paid "way over" MSRP for a 2002 PT Cruiser that they now can't give away in 2006 for $13,500 with $2,000 rebates? And we are to believe that you are a credible predictor of the future of the manual transmssion? I guess you missed the irony of that one, huh?
OK, just thought I would point that out.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
FWIW, I happen to own one of those 6-speed only 2003 M5's and am pleased to report that I have received written confirmation from BMW that the new M5 will be available later this year with a 6-speed manual. Apparantly, the "new technology" 7-speed SMG has not been universally well received. Now if they would only get rid of the i-drive. Or rather the u-drive while i-read the manual.
2001 Prelude Type SH, 2022 Highlander XLE AWD, 2025 Camry SE AWD
That isn't the point however, everything in this forum is a prediction. None of us know if there will be ICE powered cars or not. There is no way of predicting what CARB or CAFE or the EPA will mandate. But there is a trend in this country and if it continues manuals don't have as bright a future as some might suggest. I simply believe the trend is gaining speed. If the trend makes someone angry or if my pointing out the trend offends someone, I apoligise., publicly to any who feel offended.
Many have stated that the manual has a future in niche vehicles and they are happy about it. They drive niche vehicles. I have several times myself. Nippon believes compact cars hold the future for manuals. All valid points of view.
The article is online, i will post the link tomorrow when i get to work.
It talks about how people want more control of their cars...like a manual.
2001 BMW 330ci/E46, 2008 BMW 335i conv/E93
Rocky
I guess it also depends on whether torque or hp is needed, but that seems to be affected by the gear ratios which a CVT isn't restricted by.
I don't understand why it wouldn't just sound like a lawnmower engine or something going the same speed the whole time to maximize efficiency.
-juice
I might have slacked too long but this is where the article was. March 2006 issue.
"Transmissions go into overdrive"
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
I disagree.
The most torque is put to the drive wheels... in first gear. And at what rpm, that depends on the torque curve.
Just like force, torque can be multiplied.
Power, like energy, cannot.
In first gear, the wheels turn the slowest for a given power output. Hence, more torque. power = torque x rpm.
Don't try to get me to commit to units; even in metric, there's bound to be a 2pi tripping me up somewhere...
-Mathias
Nice car, nothing special, nothing wrong with it.
No sunroof, abs, or alloys, but otherwise all there.
I'm asking about $1200-$1500 above Manheim auction prices for sticks; about at auction $$$ for an automatic. In other words, a very realistic price. Maybe it's still too high, but you'd have to come look at it to know one way or the other.
In ten days, I've had four calls; two people understood that 5speed means stick, and neither of them has been interested enough to come look at the car. That is the first time this has happened to me; in the past, my sticks have sold relatively easily...
I'm beginning to think unless gas prices force a change, the end is nigh. Which is really too bad; the Vibe with automatic, for instance, is pretty much a dog. I hope the next version will still have the stick; maybe it won't. Like the Rav4. I'll watch carefully and buy one of the last ones, I guess.
Ugh.
-Mathias