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'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S
boaz: the Tucson is a Hyundai, highly rated in recent quality surveys, so you don't have to buy a bottom-of-the-barrel Kia (to paraphrase you) to get an AWD crossover with a manual.
And CRV's manual goes away this fall with the intro of the new model, I believe (they decided to mimic Toyota on that one) but the Element will continue to have one - they have no plans to drop the manual in that model.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
At least one of Shumacher's personal sports cars is a Ferrari 430 6-speed. As for his race track suggestions, they sounded similar to Jack Nicklaus and others advocating a bit more restaint on golf ball and club technology that is forcing courses like Augusta National and Pebble Beach to be redesigned every other year to accomodate "technology". At least baseball, (in spite of steroids), can still be played in 100 year old ballparks like Fenway, with 90 foot bases.
You also seem to be too stubborn to acknowledge the my point about the difference between track race car sitting 1/2" off the ground and hitting 2.5 g's and a road sports car that tops out at 1.0g +/-, but I'll chalk that up to the California drinking water. That is where the legislature is so environmentally conscious that they outlawed the 5 passenger 35+ mpg Mercedes E320 CDI, but the governor drives around (mostly solo) in one of his 8 mpg Hummers, right? Maybe if those geniuses pass a California law that everyone (except the governor) has to wear high-tech racing helmets and neck braces in passenger cars, you'll get the distiction.
On the other hand, it sounds like you are ready to just buy a Prius today, load it up with a HDTV and vinyl covered Lazy Boy messaging seat for your wife, and be one of the first to proclaim all sports cars are dead. Although you might have to share the podium with some bicycle peddling tree hugger proclaiming all cars/drivers should be killed.
Pay no attention to me. I'm not much of a trend setter or follower. I intend to enjoy our 911 as long at least as long as the warranty is in effect and my kids fit in the back. And I'll be happily shifting my own gears the whole time. Not nearly as proficiently as Schumacher does with his thumbs, toes or any other body part, but I'll still be smiling.
This is all in good fun - please take it that way.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
I understand you example of a race car verses a "sporty" car perfectly. The problem is do you understand the trend in racing and its effect on "sporty" cars? We can puff out our chests all we want and declare the superiority of the Manual till we are blue in the face but if the Poor Huddled masses that you have alluded to stop buying them or if they turn to their political leaders and pass legislation saying we need an alternative to the ICE and the law is passed we will end up driving what the voters want, and what the governor drives can and often is a in your face contradiction of what the people get.
Water not withstanding things happen that limit my choices even beyond the borders of my state. I once considered getting an EV-1 as a commuter car to drive from my house to work. I even contacted the State and GM to get chargers installed in front of our warehouse. Yes it was more expensive that I wanted to pay but I thought for just a moment I might try and become ecologically responsible to my fellow Californians. Not that long after however CARB reversed itself on its mandate of having zero emissions vehicles produced by the manufacturers to be able to see in our state and Toyota and Honda gave us the new Hybrids. ( Vehicles that they said the could manufacturer thirty years before but would not suffice for the needs of CARB.) The total result of this action was that GM pulled the plug so to speak on the EV-1 and even facing a legal challenge managed to get all of the EV-1s back and destroyed. I can not buy a EV-1 even if I wanted to. It doesn’t matter how I fell about it or how the hundreds or even thousands of EV-1 owners felt they had to give them up. I would be willing to bet a paycheck that many of them were more than able to get a 911 as a spare car in case their kids needed one for a weekend jaunt and the Hummer and Escalade were being used by the cleaning staff.
I am simply saying that neither you nor me will stand in the way of progress and politics and if manuals are not in our future because they are old technology and they don’t meet the needs, wants, desires, or standards of the masses they may be, notice I was careful to say may be not will be, dropped from our list of choices. The manual as you described it is dropped from Formula 1. No choice for those racers. It has been dropped from WRC, sliding on dirt and rocks don’t require a 2 G pull but should require both hands. The Top classes in ALMS have dropped them even over the objections of people that consider themselves better sportsmen that their fellow racers and the sanctioning body. This is not a street car I am well aware. Better than 90 percent of the American driving public has turned their back on manuals and the environmental people are looking hard at the manual drivers because they are harder to control and sop get a lower clean air rating.
But you are correct about one thing. I would love to haul my race car to a track to “experience” true driving thrill legally while pulling it with my full sized motor home with HDTV on in the back and a real refrigerator full of cool refreshments. Different strokes for different strokes as they say.
Nippon may have a better grasp on the time line than I do, he often has to pull in my fervor. But the trend can’t be denied.
I think you are wrong. At least in the sense that you think "the masses" will determine whether the manual transmission becomes extinct in high end sports cars.
As for politics, neither you nor I have a crystal ball good enough to predict that one. My 911S is a ULEV vehicle, with lower emissions than the average Detroit sedan. But Detroit has lots of lobbyists down the street, so while cars like the M5 and Ferrari 430 get hit with gas guzzler taxes, Arnold and the rest of America can take a write off on the federal taxes for buying a 6,000+ lb SUV.
"the trend can’t be denied."
Well, let me try. In the last few years, Mercedes has added more manual transmissions to their lineup than they have had in the last 20+ years. BMW tried to force feed the 7-speed SMG to buyers of the new M5. The outcry was so great from the US, that a 6-speed manual will be available later this year. In 2004, for the first time since it's intorduction in the mid 1990's, Acura offered a 6-speed manual its highest selling TL model (I bought one). BMW sells about the same percentage of manual transmissioned cars in 2006 as it did in 1996, according to an article in Autoweek magazine. Lexus is taking a lot of heat for not offering a manual in sporty IS350 (check Edmunds boards). I'll bet a paycheck that they have one before the end of 2007. Porsche's latest offering, the (base) Cayman, gives you a choice between a standard 5-speed manual, optional Tiptronic or optional 6-speed manual (from the Cayman S). How's that for choice?
I don't mean to sound rude, but I don't really care that manuals are being phased out of whatever cars the rest of the world buys. I just care about what's on my shopping list. I think I'm pretty safe for the foreseeable future. Although I am considering an extended warranty on our 911, just in case.
And you aren't rude. But the question wasn't what was the future of the manual for you it was what is the future of the manual. And of course it is all opinion based on trends and perceptions. Traction control and skid control are hardly the tools of the driver who drives because they like the feel. In that case you drive because you like the way the computer feels about the way you take a corner.
Porsche decided to cater to the enthusiast market by putting a capital "S" in SUV. I have no problem with that whatsoever, nor do the other 911 owners I know. I'm just glad they got the early bugs out and Porsche took the #1 JD Powers spot away from Lexus.
What you claim to have read about the GT-3 is simply incorrect. The GT-3 is essentially a RWD only track model of the 911, with no rear seating, and other non-essentials to save weight. At one point, they considered eliminating PSM (Porsche Stability Managment) altogether, but in the event they didn't (car hasn't hit showrooms yet) all 911's (997's) have a button on the center console that switched off PSM. My 911S Cabriolet can bee heel/toe shifted, so I'll bet you 5 paychecks that the GT-3 can. Cite your source.
"The masses not buying 300ZX and RX-7s made a big difference. Did they come back? To a degree but they were gone. Both were leaders in their class at the time they left."
Again, with all due respect, re-read your own words and recheck your history. The "masses" never bought the later model RX-7 and 300ZX. Ever. By the time the plug was pulled in the mid 1990's, these cars had evolved into nearly $50,000 so-called sports cars that in the case of the 1995 300ZX, weighed 500 lbs more than my 1995 Nissan Maxima. Sports car enthusiast didn't buy them because they WEREN'T GOOD SPORTS CARS and were grossly overpriced. By comparison, a base 911 for $75,000 in 2006 looks cheap. And when the $32k hand built Honda S2000 came out in late 1999, it was 2 years before you could get one without an additional markup. Honda sold more limited production S2000's in it's first year than RX-7's, 350ZX's and Surpas combined were sold in their final 2-3 years. Masses? Leader in their class? Duh?
On the "future of the manual", I've gone on record as saying no matter what the "trend" in the world of Toyota Camrys and Ford Taureses, they are safe for the foreseeable future as a choice with BMW, Porsche and others in their higher end sports/enthusiast models. I stand by that statement. You'll get your choice of a high tech double clutch DSG in the 2007/8 911 Turbo and I'll get my choice of a 6-speed. Now let's get back to work so we can both afford one, ey?
I'm curious if they also forced SMG on european buyers and if so, was the reaction different? Wondering if Europeans have a different view of manual transmission vs. SMG, since there the manual is the transmission of the masses.
Best Regards,
Shipo
Isn’t the “point” that they were discontinued over the objections of the enthusiasts? I think market forces have to be taken into consideration in any speculative discussion on future vehicle choices. Environmental and governmental controls have just as much of a place in making an informed guess on how the face of personal transportation will look for our future. That is the reason some of us can see a day when manuals have to be special ordered or at least are not standard but an option that has to be ordered is because we have seen other things we as enthusiasts dropped from our grasp. I could go into long histories of such things as RD-250, 350 and 400 motorcycles, Kawasaki 500 and 750 two strokes. I could point out cars that were dropped even while the enthusiast fought tooth and nail over them. But that wouldn’t be the main point. The main point is that types of vehicles can be taken away even over the objections of people that like those vehicles.
If the question was asked in the first place there must be a reason for the question. What is the future or the manual? If it was bright and sunny the forum should reflect that. If there were no problems with the future of the manual the buying public should reflect that. When Porsche, BMW, Ferrari and the like started offering transmission choices other than manual it should show a trend. Any inroad into the market that manuals dominate should be a sign. After all, if 90 plus percent of the vehicles driven in the US are already non manuals and the majority of the ones that are, happen to be, as you contend, upper class, hard to say that with a straight face, high end sports car buyers. Then any inroad to the high end sports car transmission choice has to be a warning.
We've gotten off on too many tangents, with the Cayenne, discontinued motorcycles, the GT-3, etc. etc.
I'd summarize my position as:
(1) Porsche does not follow the market "trends" of the Toyota Camry and other 300,000+ unit per year vehicles in deciding how to design and what options to offer in their sports cars.
(2) Today, a few generations after Tiptronic was first offered on the 911, 80% of the buyers opt for the 6-speed manual transmission. Most believe it is the superior transmission choice for a high performance sports car.
(3) If, with the introduction of the DSG, that percentage slips to 70% or 60%, that will not dissuade Porsche from keeping the manual transmission as an option. Go look at Porsche's option list for a 911. It's 100+ items long. Want your Speed Yellow 911 with matching Yellow dial faces, a two tone black and grey interior with Speed Yellow seat belts and Black painted wheels. No problem. Based upon that approach alone, I do not forsee Porsche force feeding buyers an automatic only transmission choice in my lifetime or that of my kids.
(4) It's hard to argue with Porsche's success in catering to the relatively small market of driving enthusiasts. They are considerably more profitable than the Big Three, combined.
(5) Your prediction that the manual transmission may be becoming increasingly rare among mass market cars is probably correct. But that doesn't change the facts or my conclusion in 1-4 above.
I'm taking a break, but I commend you for being a worthy debater in this interesting discussion.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Yes they do. Part of it is motorsports; the two big ones there are rallying and formula 1, both of which use paddles. Since manuals are completely normal, paddles are cool. It took them a few years to realize they didn't upshift well at all.
(3) If, with the introduction of the DSG, that percentage slips to 70% or 60%
Does #2 apply to DSG over manual? Do most believe manual is the superior transmission choice, when the alternative is DSG?
If #2 does not apply to DSG, then I would expect the percentage of buyer taking a manual to decline much more than you project in #3.
Supposedly the DSG that Porsche had hoped to introduce with the new 2007 Turbo will be very impressive. Upshift times will be reduced to under 10 ns, but downshift times will still be slower than some would like.
But BMW's 7-speed SMG was supposed to be the toast of the town as well, and they got harrassed into offering a 6-speed manual with the new M5. It doesn't perform as well in real driving situations as it does on paper.
Let's also see what the Porsche DSG cost in base 911's and Boxsters. I would not be surpised to see a price of $4,000-$5,000+, since their current Tiptronic is $3,400 and Ferrari's F1 transmssion adds $10k+ to the sticker. For me, the DSG would have to offer a noticable performance advantage over a 6-speed manual for it to be considered.
By saying the percentage of sticks in the 911 might drop to 60%, I'm giving the DSG a chance at doubling the current sales of the Tiptronic. Maybe it would be more, but 40% would be damn impressive, in my opinon.
Based on my experience with a DSG-equipped Audi I am sure that a Porsche so equipped will downshift faster than any manual possibly could.
I can understand why some of you would rather involve your feet in the process, as an old sports car guy I have found that those cars that are most endearing are the ones that involve you as owner/driver.
That doesn't change the fact of the technical superiority of the dual-clutch sequential shifter. IMO they'll be nearly universal in autocross and slalom competition in a few years.
2001 BMW 330ci/E46, 2008 BMW 335i conv/E93
Before ordering my 2007 911 C2S several weeks ago (due in October), I asked my brother his opinion on the DSG (i.e was it worth consideration / waiting for). He used to be on Porsche's racing team and is now working for an engineering consulting company in Germany. He called several of his former racing team associates that still work for Porsche.
The concensus among them (5 opinions) is that the DSG is far superior and in a different league than Tiptronic (which I would NEVER buy). However, 4 out of 5 said they would still rather have the manual 6-speed for a personal car. Lot's of "subjective feel" and some performance reasons. Such as, "you can't feather a DSG through an S turn and come out of it as hard".
I'm neither a drag racer, nor a weekend track junkie. But I have taken two performance driving courses (courtesy of big brother). At the last one, I managed to eclipse the best lap time of a Ferrari 360 F1 in my lowly Boxster S 6-speed for top honors among students. I then watched an instructor take a $30k Honda S2000 for a lap time that significantly beat both me and the Ferrari. So with all due respect to the mostly male egos here, I think the debate about which is the superior transmssion is somewhat silly among us non-professional drivers.
Actually you would have to test the same driver with the same car and different transmissions. Since most drivers are not "former racing team associates", I'd have to put my money on 99.44% of manual transmission drivers doing better in any test with DSG. These folks may still want the clutch and all for "subjective feel", or whatever...
But we could take the example to the extream. I love these what if things. We take 100 students from any high school, lets say somewhere in Kansas, that just that have just passed drivers ed. No racing skill to speak of, and we put them on a road course and allow them to try and get the best lap time they can. we give them a one hour time limit to get their best time. Would that be an objective test? Where would we put our money then?
These folks may still want the clutch and all for "subjective feel", or whatever...
was that buyers may still want the clutch, even after it has been demonstrated to them that they get better performance without it.
I tend to agree that Nipon has a point. Small, economical, cars may keep manuals in front of the marketing people for a few more years. But with the CVT even that may change.
Truthfully I believe ecological reasons may be the hardest on manuals as we know them. As I look at the new hybrid and fuel cell proposals it seems like the manual has limited appeal. Maybe diesel could add a few more years to the fuel supply and the manual but who knows? People that know me know I am not a big fan of CARB and the EPA but they don't seem to be big fans of the manual either.
With today's computers, automatics are great. If you're into that sort of thing...
Maybe I didn't make my previous point clearly enough. I'll try again. Please read slowly.
According to my aforementioned sources, relative to the 911 Turbo, DSG is inferior to the manual 6-speed in overall performance. It allows for better straight line acceleration from a dead stop with launch control, but after that, all the advantages go to the manual. Including straight line acceleration from a slightly rolling stop for you drag racing cheaters. Remember, I was being advised about the 911 Turbo in the hands of someone that knows how to drive a 6-speed on a track (i.e. me). For lower torque cars, like the 911S I'm getting, the difference would be even more in favor of the 6-speed. I was "guaranteed" that I would be able to get get better lap times with the manual than I would with DSG. This from guys that have plenty of seat time in 900 hp DSG equiped Porsche race cars.
boaz47: The fact that you can "feel" the engagement point and feather a 6-speed IS a PERFORMANCE advantage. I think I saw where you liked drag racing, but have you driven a high performance manual transmission sports car on a road course track?
You guys caught up on "If Schumacher uses one in his Formula One car, it must be the best choice for me in my 911 (or whatever)" are being a little dense. Maybe if you're really bad at driving a 6-speed, the DSG will help cover your faults. But if that's the case, I have a better suggestion:
Porsche Driving Experience
I am not trying to offend anybody. It's my competitive streak showing. If I had been told DSG equiped 911 would be superior to the manual, I would have seriously considered waiting until next spring for it in the 911S. But I am convinced from my reliable sources that it isn't. If you want to settle this on the track, bring your car to the "Masters" course and we'll have a showdown.
With all due respect to the female ego (I dig the veiled male bashing) who picks a Porsche as a commuter, too...
There is no disagreement that some people prefer manuals "just because". Some people like the row their own gears. But here in the US better than 90 percent of the drivers don't. On the track more and more classes are finding a way to get paddle shifters. So the field of manuals is shrinking. Nothing wrong if you are like some that prefer to shift yourself. It is a simple question on what direction manuals will take in the future. Will third pedal dog legs remain or does it look like they will have to evolve passed the manual engagement to simple manual selection? We don't know but the signs are that an ever more selective few are deciding on the dog leg. Once again that is fine as long as the manufacturers don't decide that some magic number has been reached and they stop offering manuals in our favorite vehicles. Maybe as habitat says it will never be a problem for Porsche drivers. But for the many who can't or would rather not drive a Porsche the future isn't looking so rosy.
Rocky
7 or 8 speed manual to keep up with the automatics which have similar # of gears ????
I would doubt there are any plans afoot because it would be pretty difficult to "row" thru a 7-8 speed dogleg pattern and probably not much fun unless someone comes up with a sequential manual setup that can be shifted in a straight line.
2001 BMW 330ci/E46, 2008 BMW 335i conv/E93
Rocky
The reason gasoline cars have more than one gear is that the horsepower curve is not flat, it rises and peaks, and the gears allow it to be kept in a range with the appropriate power for current driving needs.
Additionally, the engine is more efficient at certian RPM's and specific loads.
An electric engine has a flat horsepower curve in between a specific RPM range. Much like this:
http://www.metricmind.com/line_art/plot_all.gif
It's possible to make the starting torque much lower yet than the above graph shows. So if the power is the same between 1000 and 10000 RPM there's no reason to have gears. You could bolt the engine right to the axle.
I think that 6-speeds is advanced enough. The 5-speed in my '01 Kia Sportage 4x4 is enough forward shifting. After 6 forward speeds the shifting would start to become a chore.
I don't see the manufacturers doing away with manual tranny's antime soon. There's a large market in Europe for manual transmissions and, really, has anyone thought about the Chinese and Indian markets and their proclivety for the "shnick"?
2021 Kia Soul LX 6-speed stick
Given a choice of 5 speed manual, 6 speed auto, or 6 speed manual, I think more folks are going to take the auto than if the choice is a 5 speed manual or a 4 speed auto.
I think this will be even more the case if choices include a 7 speed manual or 7 speed auto. Who is going to want that many gears in a manual and alternatively who is going to give up one or two additional forward gears in order to have a manual with a reasonable number of gears? Some perhaps, but I think not many.
Corvettes had 4+3 manuals, which was really more like 4x3, IIRC. Trucks get more gears by having splicers and multi-speed rear ends. Its more like a bicycle where you have 5 to 10 gears in the transmission (rear cluster in this case) and 2 or 3 in the rear end/splicer (front chainrings in this case). A lot of the gears are overlap (multiplying out there to gear inches, some are redundant), but I can usually keep my engine (legs)in a the power band (80-110 rpm).
Thats really what gears are for, to keep the engine in its power band, either for efficiency or performance.
A torquey V8 with a nice, flat torque curve could probably get by with 3 speeds. It'll get more only to make the shifts smoother (smaller rpm change).
A peaky VTEC motor needs more gears to keep the revs up, that's why the TSX' 6 speed is a good fit for that car. If it had 3 or 4 speeds it would be a slug.
-juice
-juice
With a wound up motor, you have to work more to keep it going and you are more likely to need all those gears.
most posts are about which has better performance.
what i am referring to is, if i drive fast(70+ mph on highway), i get to work 2 minutes quicker than if i drive slower(65 mph), coast(if possible). method #2 gets me 10% better fuel mileage.
Is my change an indicator of the declining popularity of the manual trans? I think so, but I could be wrong.
Perhaps I am unique in deciding to go over to the dark side, after a lifelong preference for manuals. Or maybe I am just old and tired.