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The Future Of The Manual Transmission

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  • habitat1habitat1 Member Posts: 4,282
    I guess you could say that the "GTS" version is "nichier" vehicle than the base Cayenne, whether you get it in manual or Tiptronic. But its a lot less money than the Cayenne Turbo and I suspect there are a fair number of buyers of that vehicle that wouldn't miss the 5th seat. I see a fair number of Cayenne owners who are single professionals or couples without kids that have a need for a snow country capable or boat hauling SUV, but don't need to ferry 5 kids to a soccer game.

    One can still get the Cayenne V6 in a 6-speed for around $50k, and now that they increased the base Cayenne's power to 290 hp it's much less of the stepchild that the previous 247 hp V6 model was.

    Interestingly, my dealer told me the other day that he ordered three 2008 6-speed manual Cayennes for delivery in November/December and didn't give a nickel discount from MSRP on any of them (limited production). He's discounting the Tiptronic models, in much higher supply, by 6%+. Meaning, that there were a few buyers out there actually willing to pay the same or MORE for a manual transmission Cayenne than a Tiptronic, (Tiptronic adds $3,400 to MSRP).
  • british_roverbritish_rover Member Posts: 8,502
    No wonder I get beat up by people buying Cayennes if they are discounting them the 6+ percent off MSRP. I can't discount any Range Rovers that much and stay in business unless they are demos/model year left overs.
  • habitat1habitat1 Member Posts: 4,282
    Where are you located?

    In my area, Range Rovers are being much more heavily discounted than 6%. For the past two weekends, Land Rover of Annapolis has had a big ad in the Washington Post for a new 2007 Range Rover HSE at $59,950 (supposedly MSRP of $77k+) The fine print seems to indicate that there is an additional $4,500 due up front, but that's still under $65k and about a 16% discount.

    Land Rover of Rockville has been advertising LR3's at $8,000 off MSRP for at least 6 months now, also about 15% off MSRP, I believe.

    I have a friend who was all set to buy a Range Rover Sport HSE for close to MSRP when they were relatively new and in high demand in August, 2005. He decided to lease through his company instead and recently indicated he could now buy the same vehicle for at least $8-10k less than he was going to going to pay in 2005. The dealer is already offering a big discount and an early lease release, if he buys the one he has.

    My impression from yet another friend - the one who had the Country, then a Range Rover HSE (previous model) and now drvies a G500 - is that Range Rovers are great vehicles, but you are a fool to buy one new at anywhere near MSRP, as they have incredible depreciation. He bought at least 3-4 over the past 15 years as 3+/- year old, moderate mileage vehicles, at an average of 40-50% less than new.
  • british_roverbritish_rover Member Posts: 8,502
    I am in New England.

    Well LR3s are not Range Rovers. There is much less demand for them and the styling has not been a success. It is funny people will pay much, much more for a Range Rover Sport that is essentially the same vehicle as the LR3 underneath but far less practical. The Sport drives a little bit sportier but its not any faster. I would sell someone a similarly equipped LR3 for 10,000 dollars less then a equivalent Range Rover Sport. I guess people really are shallow.

    We are advertising 9,000 dollars off left over 2007 MY LR3s all this month and last. I think we will be sold out by the end of September or beginning of October as we only have five left.

    Those are all left over model year Range Rovers. Which I said I would discount that much if not more.

    I can't discount any Range Rovers that much and stay in business unless they are demos/model year left overs.

    The Cayenne is a brand new redesign and no way am I selling a current model year Range Rover let alone a freshly redesigned one for 6 percent off MSRP. That 6 percent is almost my whole margin on the car.

    he could now buy the same vehicle for at least $8-10k less than he was going to going to pay in 2005. The dealer is already offering a big discount and an early lease release, if he buys the one he has.

    Sure on a 2007 MY Sport if you can find one. I sold out of 07s in June as did many other dealers and at the time Land Rover had no incentive support behind the cars. Now they have 4,000 dollars of dealer cash so I can see 8,000 dollars off and maybe even 10,000 dollars to clear the last couple of old models off the lot.

    is that Range Rovers are great vehicles, but you are a fool to buy one new at anywhere near MSRP, as they have incredible depreciation. He bought at least 3-4 over the past 15 years as 3+/- year old, moderate mileage vehicles, at an average of 40-50% less than new.

    Most cars in that price range lose about half of their value by the third year. Even the king of all resale Lexus falls to about 50 percent after three or four years for their most expensive model. Lexus LS Value and Some more and two more about 50 percent Yup about 50 percent

    And then you have the Sport which is doing a great job holding value.

    A little while ago I appraised a sport I sold a lady two years ago. It has about 20,000 miles on it and she paid 60,000 dollars, basically full MSRP at the time, for it new. I offered her $47,500 to get into a 2008 sport and she was all set to take the deal but her boyfriend queered the whole thing. I would have gone as high as $48,000 to make the deal work but it wasn't about money her boyfriend is just a nut.
  • stickguystickguy Member Posts: 53,330
    Honda is, at least.

    I stopped at the local (NJ) dealer to check out the newly arrived '08 Accord. Nice car, certainly bigger.

    So, I took a lap around the back lot to check out colors, prices, etc. And of course trannies!

    Of the ~12 on the lot (that I found), 2 were manuals. Both 4 cyl/ 5 speed sedans (they didn't have any coupes that I could find).

    One was an LX-P (I think), so basically the entry level car with a few options on it (could have been an LX strippo). The other was a loaded EX-L, so basically top of the line for a 4 cyl.

    Much nicer shift lever and knob than in the '05 that I have. Looks like a BMW piece, as opposed to mine which looks like it came from Rubbermaid!

    But still, nice to see a sampling of sticks in the initial allocation.

    2020 Acura RDX tech SH-AWD, 2023 Maverick hybrid Lariat luxury package.

  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Sadly, we have to wonder if that will be the last US Accord to get a manual trans, the way things look. :(
  • lilengineerboylilengineerboy Member Posts: 4,116
    Given the size of the current Accord, since the next US Accord will be approximately the size of a Lincoln Town Car, I am not so worried about what transmission it has.
    Hopefully, the Civic will grow to no larger than a 14' Uhaul truck and still be available with a manual transmission.
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Well, what other full-size car can you get with a manual? ;)

    Nissan dropped it in their Maxima, IIRC.
  • british_roverbritish_rover Member Posts: 8,502
    Yes they did a couple of years ago. I think all Maximas, and soon to be all Automatic Nissan fwd cars, are going to be CVTs.
  • jeffyscottjeffyscott Member Posts: 3,855
    since the next US Accord will be approximately the size of a Lincoln Town Car

    :D
  • nippononlynippononly Member Posts: 12,555
    Accord coupes don't arrive at dealers until the 20th, so this Thursday. And I will be doing a recon very similar to yours then, looking for 5-speed 4-cyl coupes.

    The next dealer over from me has 2 Accord coupes left from the '07 MY, both red, both sticks. One an EX cloth and one an LX. I would be tempted if they weren't red. :-(

    But the new coupe looks pretty slick, and the EX engine is standard, and of course the rims are plus-one from the sedans. I really hope they build a decent portion with sticks...

    2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)

  • lilengineerboylilengineerboy Member Posts: 4,116
    Yeah that was a shame. I enjoyed that car, both in the mid-late 90s with the 5 speed and later with the 6 speed. Honestly, that 3.5 probably only needs like 3 or 4 gears it has so much torque.
    The change in body style of the Maxima, the incredible hugeness of it, and the lack of a manual transmission sent my dad to the G35 6 speed. That's a very enjoyable ride.
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    I like the G a lot, too.
  • habitat1habitat1 Member Posts: 4,282
    Thanks for the insights.

    I haven't checked, but I take it the LR3 doesn't offer a manual transmission. I recall the old Discovery having a stick, but that was at least 8-10 years ago.

    You are right about the "shallow" comment. A few years ago friends of ours got a fully loaded Toyota Landcruiser for about $12k less than his image conscious brother paid for an essentially identical Lexus LX450. Sure, a few trim goodies in the Lexus. But the routine maintenance on the Lexus is 50% more than the Toyota and, to add insult to injury, the Lexus has had a couple of mechanical problems while the Toyota has run flawlessly. Luck of the draw, I'm sure.
  • british_roverbritish_rover Member Posts: 8,502
    You can get both the LR3 and the LR2 with six speed manuals in Europe but only with the diesel engines. Land Rover has just discontinued all gas engine sales for the LR3 so your only choice is diesel/manual or diesel/automatic.
  • bristol2bristol2 Member Posts: 736
    Land Rover has just discontinued all gas engine sales for the LR3 so your only choice is diesel/manual or diesel/automatic

    You are referring to the European market only, correct? US market is still gas only with auto?
  • jeffyscottjeffyscott Member Posts: 3,855
    The next dealer over from me has 2 Accord coupes left from the '07 MY, both red, both sticks. One an EX cloth and one an LX.

    Since they have apparently had difficulty selling the sticks, I'd guess the dealer will order fewer of them this time.
  • nippononlynippononly Member Posts: 12,555
    Well, another nearby dealer has 2 5-speed sedans and about 40 automatic sedans. I guess he has had a lot of trouble selling the automatics, and so will order less next time! :-P

    In fact, my local dealer has about twice that many automatic '07s left, and one 5-speed, so I guess he is going to scale WAY back on automatic orders next time around too!

    2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)

  • british_roverbritish_rover Member Posts: 8,502
    You are referring to the European market only, correct? US market is still gas only with auto?

    Correct.
  • jeffyscottjeffyscott Member Posts: 3,855
    Maybe they have had trouble selling the '07 Sedan, whatever the transmission??? Or is it normal for them to have that many leftovers when the new one has arrived?
  • boaz47boaz47 Member Posts: 2,747
    I think I agree with you on this. I believe is it a sign of a general downturn in car buying more that anything else. A healthy dealership should order a manual verses automatic split at the rate they expect to sell each unit. A dealer with a good handle on JIT delivery would not have any cars left over if they could. So if they could have predicted sales better they should only have had 20 automatics left for 2 manuals based on national sales.

    One thing that can be said for manual owners is they are loyal to their transmissions. And they seem more willing to keep their cars longer. I have been looking at cars within 50 miles of my zip code and manuals do not represent anything close to 10 percent. I am not sure they make up 5 percent. That includes cars between two and four years old. I even have been looking at Subaru’s, both the outback and Forester and it isn’t 5 percent. So if I assume that more like 10 percent of the drivers of Subaru’s drive manuals they must be holding on to them at a higher rate than automatic buyers in the same MY. New cars the range seems close to the 10 percent mark but not used cars
  • habitat1habitat1 Member Posts: 4,282
    I have been looking at cars within 50 miles of my zip code and manuals do not represent anything close to 10 percent.

    I wonder if manual transmission market share varies by geography? My in-laws live in Maine and they went from a Saab to a Subaru about 8 years ago, and traded for a new Subaru a couple of years ago. All manual transmissions. They sold the Saab and 1st Subaru privately, without any difficulty due to transmission. When I went to the dealer with him on the last purchase, they must have been closer to 30-40% manual transmissions on the lot.

    My Baltimore based Porsche dealer doesn't order any Tiptronics for his allocation, unless a customer orders it and puts down a non-refundable deposit of at least $5,000. When he does occasionally get an extra "bonus" allocation that is a Tip, he takes it, but immediately advertises it in cars.com. He has shipped many Tiptronics to California and Florida, where he claims they are more accepted.

    It would be interesting to see the demographic/geographic data on manual vs. automatic within the U.S.
  • nippononlynippononly Member Posts: 12,555
    it varies more by manufacturer and vehicle type than geographically. Check out used WRX availability some time: about 1/2 of all you find will be manual shift. It's easy to find stick shift Outbacks and Foresters too. Soob is committed to the stick.

    So is Honda, so it's not impossible to find used manual shift Accords, and stick shift Civics are a dime a dozen.

    After that, it's harder. It's never too difficult to find compact/midsize pick-ups with a stick, regardless of manufacturer (easier with the imports than with the domestics though). But outside of pick-ups, it is moderately hard to find stick shifts from most other manufacturers. BMW and Saab seem to be exceptions to that rule - I see lots of used cars from those makes with sticks. Even manual shift VWs aren't too hard to find. Stick shift Toyotas, of course, are rare. :-(

    On the domestic side it's also influenced by rentals, all of which will always be automatics in this country. So the domestics, which produce a lot of their mainstream vehicles for rental fleets, are biased towards building automatics.

    2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)

  • boaz47boaz47 Member Posts: 2,747
    I am sure the area has a lot to do with it. The whole LA Orange County area has some of the heaviest traveled Freeways in the country. There isn't a lot of need for the advantages of a manual for 90 percent of our driving. Leaving my area and heading for Palm Springs the road is about as straight as an arrow and once on the freeway you only see top gear till you get off the freeway 60 minutes later. So we are either in traffic jams, not a high point of the manual experience,or on the open road once again not a shining light when you own a manual.

    Still it looks like I can get a better deal on a automatic because there are so many more on the market. I drive to a class on Tuesday night with two other men and both have AWDs. One has a Outback with and Automatic and the other has a GM SUV with an automatic. I have the only manual in the whole group I run with. Even the guys in our band have automatics, and two just bought FJ cruisers, with you guessed it. So it looks like I will either have to suck it up and take the drive off the lot loss and get a new car if I want a manual of increase my search to 100 miles. That puts me in the LA market or the High Desert. This simply isn't as easy as I had wanted.
  • boaz47boaz47 Member Posts: 2,747
    The WRX is an option. Not much room even in the wagon but you are right. More of them are Manuals. And the Used WRX looks to be selling for less than the Used Forester. However I wonder about a used WRX boy racer car with a manual. Carmax does offer a good inspection however. But my wife is still talking travel so I think I am going to have to go to something bigger.
  • plektoplekto Member Posts: 3,738
    Don't forget the RX-8. Awesome car. And a Mini Cooper S can also be had easily with manual.
  • lilengineerboylilengineerboy Member Posts: 4,116
    Subies come with some sticks on some models. You can't get a stick Legacy wagon anymore, especially a high-line version. It might be coincidence that this occurred the same time Toyota bought a big chunk...or maybe not. That leaves the VW for a manual trans midsized wagon.
    Honda has just about everything in a stick (minus the new V6 Accord).
    BMW's reputation for sporty sedans aimed at younger folks (relatively speaking) means they have to have manuals, even if its only to say "look, we have manuals, we really make sports sedans."
  • lilengineerboylilengineerboy Member Posts: 4,116
    I am sure the area has a lot to do with it. The whole LA Orange County area has some of the heaviest traveled Freeways in the country. There isn't a lot of need for the advantages of a manual for 90 percent of our driving. Leaving my area and heading for Palm Springs the road is about as straight as an arrow and once on the freeway you only see top gear till you get off the freeway 60 minutes later. So we are either in traffic jams, not a high point of the manual experience,or on the open road once again not a shining light when you own a manual.

    I think it is also regional in that folks in the snow belt typically use a Porsche as a pleasure vehicle on nice days in the spring summer and fall, while in California and Florida, they are used as commuters just like everything else. I have no idea why someone would want to neuter a vehicle so they could sit in traffic in a Porsche but thats's why they come in different configurations.
  • bristol2bristol2 Member Posts: 736
    You can't get a stick Legacy wagon anymore, especially a high-line version.

    ? You can't get a Legacy wagon anymore period. But you can get the 2.5 XT Limited, which is the highest line version available until the LL Bean, with a 5-speed manual.

    The Legacy (sedan only now) is avialable up to LL BEan with manual also.
  • nippononlynippononly Member Posts: 12,555
    Can you imagine if Soob tried to make their turbos automatic-only?! What a riot would ensue! And sales would drop a LOT, I imagine. My local dealer stocks pretty much exclusively sticks in the Legacy and Outback XTs. In fact, do they even OFFER an automatic for the XT???

    2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)

  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    2005 was the only year you could get a Legacy wagon with a turbo and a manual. :(

    Still, Subaru at least offers a manual in every car line except the Tribeca.

    An Outback XT comes in a manual, and that's just a beefy lifted Legacy wagon.
  • boaz47boaz47 Member Posts: 2,747
    You give the buyer of Subaru too much credit. Like I said they may offer them in manuals but a lot of people buy them in automatics. Subaru hasn't always made rational decisions. I give you the Tribeca as an example. Ugly and in Automatic only. I almost forgot. They sold the Baja for no rational reason and sold about 6 a month. (free hyperbole)
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Do you like the 08 re-do (top) more than the original (bottom)?

    image

    I don't think there is much demand for a 3-row crossover with a manual trans.
  • kyfdxkyfdx Moderator Posts: 265,441
    Yes.. it went from ugly to just plain....

    Much better, IMO..

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  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Funny, true story.

    GM owned a chunk of FHI back then, and they were developing a Saab 9-6x, and that was it.

    GM ditched the plan and sold their shares to Toyota. Subaru recycled the effort and made that Saab the 08 Tribeca. We had spy photos of test mules that match up exactly.

    So basically both were developed at the same time. Subaru's version came out in 06. Saab's version came out in 08.

    It's "plain" next to the 06, sure, but I think if it had come out first, it would have had a warm reception. Anything seems plain next to the 06.
  • boaz47boaz47 Member Posts: 2,747
    Yes a bit. But as bad as the front was it was the backend that looked like the helmet on a Org. And I agree, not much demand for a manual in a crossover like that but Subaru had a reputation I thought.

    By the way, just to poke a little long time fun between us. Once again Subaru has no chance of winning the championship in WRC. In fact everyone could quit racing now and they still might have trouble getting second place from where they stand. ;)
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    here are some pics...

    Note the shape, the taillights (identical), etc.

    The mule was a 2 door, oddly enough. Wonder if Saab would have built both? We may never know.
  • hudsonthedoghudsonthedog Member Posts: 552
    I never noticed it before, but the Saab 9-6X (pictured above) donated its headlights to the Tribeca update. I'll bet that the only reason why Subaru was able to refresh the Tribeca so quickly was that Saab had designed this front end.
  • british_roverbritish_rover Member Posts: 8,502
    The guys at our SAAB dealership said the same thing.
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    I'm sure that's true. That really allowed Subaru to escape the old styling rather quickly.
  • boaz47boaz47 Member Posts: 2,747
    They realized their mistake and dropped the Baja a lot quicker than Toyota dropped the Echo. However I am surprised that the price of a used Baja hasn't fallen off as quickly as one would expect from an discontinued model.
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Demand is low, but supply is even lower.
  • xwesxxwesx Member Posts: 17,678
    I was going to say that while the demand for these cars was low from day 1, those who own them seem to LOVE them. :D
    2018 Subaru Crosstrek, 2014 Audi Q7 TDI, 2013 Subaru Forester, 2013 Ford F250 Lariat D, 1976 Ford F250, 1969 Chevrolet C20, 1969 Ford Econoline 100
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Yeah, I think it won the JD Powers APEAL award for its class. They do love 'em.
  • british_roverbritish_rover Member Posts: 8,502
    What class is the Baja in anyway? Was it a class of one?
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    El Camino > Brat > Baja.

    Now and then I think one would be nice around my little ranchero here to haul manure to my gourds.
  • kyfdxkyfdx Moderator Posts: 265,441
    Don't forget the Ranchero and the Rampage... :)

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  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Sub-compact crew cab, yes, the one and only.

    Subaru screwed up, big time. The ST-X concept was promising. It had a full mid-gate and a supercharged engine from the start.

    The Baja came out as a 4 seater only, with a standard moonroof so tall people could not fit. That limited it to short people and small families.

    Then they loaded it up with leather, the aforementioned moonroof, heated seats, alloy wheels, all on a very small pickup, so it was priced as high as mid-size competitors.

    Oops. They sold about 600 a month. Target was 2000/month.

    They should have stretched the wheelbase to begin with, made it a 5 seater, had a bigger bed WITH a mid-gate, and offered a performance engine from the start. And a lower starting price with less content.

    It's a case study in how not to implement a concept.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    Edited. ;)

    I barely remember the Rampage. Those are probably rare birds.
  • kyfdxkyfdx Moderator Posts: 265,441
    There are a lot of things about the early '80s that I barely remember... :blush:

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