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So I don't necessarily see that as a problem. Though if you have a business that relies on tourism ... I think we need to reverse our economy and start making things in this country again, rather than just being a service-economy with the wealthy business owners, some middle-class managers, and the more numerous relatively poor service worker.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/oil-market-ease-higher-supplies/story.aspx- ?guid=%7B58BF5AFE%2DE3E6%2D4D93%2DA984%2DA505330263AE%7D
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
Heck, I went from the Pacific to the Atlantic ocean last June without using a motor vehicle. People just need to think outside the box.
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
The one thing we should learn, and this goes for these experts, is that price spikes do not last - whether it's gold, real estate values, Apple stock - they all go up over time and maybe faster than overall inflation, but spikes and year-after-year large increases do not hold. Prices retreat some after runups, and stabilize. Eventually the price rises enough that people's demand either willingly or "can't-afford-willingly" decreases.
Not everybody has the luxury of being able to take weeks off from work.
I have been letting my mower sit since about November without adding any fuel stabilizer. Is it too late, or will a shot of it bring the fuel back?
Sure enough. But look at the post-Katrina period. In my neighborhood, the baseline price of gas roughly doubled overnight and stayed that way. Spikes in price since then were well above double, but we basically had gas at $1.50-1.75 in the "summer driving season" of 2005, and since then we have never had lower prices than roughly $3-3.50. Sometimes prices will move abruptly to a different order of magnitude and stay there.
On a separate note, Chavez has just today stopped shipping oil to Exxon as a retaliatory move, which should do good things for stability in international oil markets and our gas prices (not)...
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
But your choosing a time when prices were low. I could have as well chosen 1985 when I remember prices were high. $1.20 in 1985 was a lot of money. So look at the last 40 years together, adjust for inflation, and you'll see that though prices have been volatile, and you can't predict any given 2 or 3 year period, the average follows a fairly steady trend. Gas prices do not take big jumps and stay there forever. There is elasticity in the global oil market.
But, over time, the years just seem to blend together. And like Ronald Reagan, I don't remember. Wait, didn't I already use that line? I don't remember. :P
That looks like the USA Average that summer was in a range from $2.10 to $2.75
And that's how it seems to me in CALIFORNIA. Just look at larsb's chart, peaks and valleys have been higher and lower in the other 47 states than in California (where we got the peaks, but no valleys, and stayed near the peaks most of the time :sick:)
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
I don't see gasoline acting long-term much different than the price of milk or real estate. Short-term gasoline has its seasonal-prices, and its geopolitical and bidder-psychology spikes.
Besides the good weather, I wouldn't want to live in CA. Too many nitpicky laws, and too many taxes, both of which contribute to your high gasoline prices.
Also due to the weak US$ more visitors from Canada and from Europe/Japan should visit us. It could be a lot less expensive for them to visit us than to stay and vacation in their home countries.
OTOH...more drivers locally here = more demand = higher prices. Unintended consequences.
It's true that spike never go alwaysin one direction either up or down. However base trendlines that underly the spikes are what need to be kept under observation. I think that fuel will hit $4.00 - or higher - during the peak driving season this year and then as usual settle back to the $3.10-3.25 range. The following year it will likely crack the $4.50 barrier and settle back to the $3.50-3.75 range. On average.
To ignore this baseline trend is simply to hide from the facts and hope the 80's return. If you don't plan on fuel increasing by about $.50 a gallon per year - On Average - then don't be surprised and angry and shocked as it does. As long as we are willing to pay and pay and pay until hit hurts enough do something then the prices will go up and up and up. A huge portion of the US buying public has already reacted to the jump from $1.50 to $2.90.
Now this is being written in the political frame of reference of our government being lead by two oilmen. In 12 months this will change and there may be a lot of jawboning and pressure from the new White House toward the oil companies to hold the line on price increases.
Supply increases or disruptions ( Venezuela/ExxonMobil ) may have a shortterm influence but the declining purchasing power of the US$ is not a shortterm influence. This is doubly true with the Fed dropping interest rates to stave off recession. As the Interest rates go down so does the attractiveness of the US$. If the US$ falls 20% again this year our prices will go up by at least that amount again next year. I don't think that our friends in the oil-producing business will agree to do business with ( US ) its primary customer at the same prices if our money was only worth 80% of what it was last year?
WE the driving public are the oil producers main customer.
I'm guessing about 5-10%; with $0.50 being a spike. That is if the dollar now holds its current value against other currencies. Why? Because globally people do not have the income to pay for gasoline with those sorts of increases. Gasoline price increases of $0.50/year would force more people out of their cars. Every country including this one, has a population that either can't afford a car, or the gas to run it. Increasing gas prices as you suggest would increase this popuilation that couldn't afford gas, thus decreasing demand, and keeping prices in check.
So I see 5-10% as being the base-increase; slightly higher than overall inflation. If I had to pick a number 7%.
So why didn't that theory work when gas went from $1 to $2? The price doubled, so why didn't everyone quit buying, and drive it back to $1?
Even if we could afford that $2 price, certainly the current $3 price should have forced everyone to quit buying gas, and at least drive the price back to $2, right?
Maybe $4 is the magic number. Will it all stop when gas hits $4?
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I think a forecasted increase of $.50 per gallon is conservative - on average - simply because it's a fixed amount on an increasing denominator; i.e. a decreasing rate of increase. But even using your estimate of 7% annually here's what the price of fuel would look like in 3-5-7-10-15 yrs.
2007 .. $2.75
.
.
2010 .. $3.36
.
2012 .. $3.85
.
2014 .. $4.40
.
.
2017 .. $5.40
.
.
.
.
2022 .. $7.60
This assumes as you note that the US$ stabilizes and stops tanking. That will not be likely this year.
US$ vs E on 1-2-07 was $1.24 / 1E
US$ vs E on 1-2-08 was $1.46 / 1E
Here is the 5 yr graph of the US$ vs the Euro. The trend is unmistakeable. Plan for it or hide from it at your choice.
US$ vs E 5 yr timeline
Even if we could afford that $2 price, certainly the current $3 price should have forced everyone to quit buying gas, and at least drive the price back to $2, right?
Maybe $4 is the magic number. Will it all stop when gas hits $4?
I'm guessing that $2.00 per gallon simply didn't hit people as hard as everybody thought it would. However, right around the time that gasoline started staying consistently around $2+ per gallon, the summer of 2004, that seemed to be when the tide started turning against bigger SUVs and trucks, and smaller cars, crossovers, etc, started catching on more. And I do remember around that time, people did start to drive a bit more gently. But then, I guess, we just got used to it.
Still, if you look at sales statistics, bigger vehicles, with the exception of full-sized pickups, which there will always be a need for, have taken a plunge. Meanwhile, smaller cars, hybrids, etc, have taken off. So the higher prices are having an influence. Just not enough of an influence yet to price so many people out of the market that the companies have no choice but to lower fuel prices.
I dunno if $4.00 per gallon would be enough of a tipping point, either. If anything, the higher gasoline prices go, the less impact each additional dollar has. For instance, when prices went from $1 to $2, that was a 100% increase. Jumping from $2 to 3 was a 50% increase. The $3-4 jump will be a 33% increase.
If the 7% increases noted above are the best case scenario then I would put the worst case at 10-15% annual increases, averaging 12%.
2007 .. $2.75
2010 .. $3.85
2012 .. $4.85
2014 .. $5.45
2017 .. $7.65
2022 .. $13.45 !!!
There is a bright side to the falling $USD. It makes US made products more affordable. Right now a vacation in the USA is much more affordable for the Europeans and Asians than the other way around. Someone from Europe comes here and rents an Impala and sees how cheap the gas is will feel like he is a king on vacation. If we go to Europe and pay $400 per night to stay in a low class hotel and are stuck driving some miniature car that will only hold a briefcase in the trunk, we feel like a lowlife. Makes you want to load up the car and take the family to Florida or San Diego
PS
You can get a deal at a Hyatt Regency in the USA for about half of what a Cheapo hotel in London or Paris.
Because you are simply looking at the cost, and not considering WHEN. Back in the early 80's when gasoline was $1.25/gal, that is similar to $3+/gal now probably closer to $4. Back around 2000 gas was abnormally cheap at a little over $1/gal. If gas is abnormally cheap then yes people can afford it to go to $2 or $2.50/gal.
You need to look at what the average and trend is over a long period of time, and consider inflation.
Maybe $4 is the magic number. Will it all stop when gas hits $4?
Consider the incomes of people of the U.S and globally, as represented in a Bell curve. Now consider that a certain percentage of those people can not now afford $3.00 gasoline. Say that's 5% of the U.S. population (who can't afford gasoline now), and draw a vertical line such that 5% of the area of the curve is to left of the lineline . If gasoline were to go to $3.20/gal that may grow to 6%. At $3.40/gal that may grow to 8%, and on and on, as the cost increases.
As you cut more and more of the population out of the gasoline market, OR cut their use so they don't use any discretionary (recreational), then you cut demand. Reduced demand keeps down the price.
So yes there have been times when gas is relatively expensive and relatively cheap. But gas prices can not rise so high, as to drive too many people from affording it; at least not with the relatively plentiful supply situation. If the supply situation were different - lower, then yes prices would rise, more people would be forced out of buying gasoline, and the price would stabilize at a higher point.
It's relatively simple that there's a certain amount of gasoline available each day. If there's 20 million gal. available then the price is set at whatever consumers are willing to pay for that - the commodity markets basically act as auction.
Everyday and every year you need to be in the group willing to pay enough to purchase some. People really need to consider their income and willingness to work extra, and not think they are entitiled to cheap gas; guaranteed somehow by the government or oil-companies.
Plus my car used a quart of oil every 100 miles. When I bought a new Toyota Land cruiser in 1964 it used a quart every 500-600 miles and the dealer said it was normal.
Today, minimum wage in Maryland is $6.15/hr, slated to go up to $6.55 this July, and then to $7.25 in July 2009. This morning I saw gas for $2.93/gal, for 87. So today, an hour of minimum wage will get you about 2.2 gallons.
So in my case at least, the gasoline really is more expensive than when I started driving, with respect to minimum wage. Now if you factor in having a more fuel-efficient car, that's going to make a big difference. However, in my case, back then I had a 1980 Malibu that got around 15-16 city, 22-23 highway. Today I drove into work in a '79 5th Ave that might get around 8-11 city, and 15-16 highway. Of course, I have nobody to blame but myself there. :P
My point is that we have choices today that did not exist in 1961 for high mileage cars. Even when you hit the workforce in 1987, you could have bought a CRX that would get you 50 MPG. 1987 was a great year for me. I was making over $20 per hour and spending 3 out of ever 6 weeks in Hawaii. The Keauhou Beach Resort had a special rate of $21 per day including a rental car. Gas was expensive in Hawaii as it always is. I did not drive a lot just took life easy. By 1995 that same package was over $100 per day. My wages went up only about 30% in that same time period. It priced me out of the market. That room today is $289 per night without a car.
So gas is one of the few bargains we still have in this country.
I miss this place
Yeah, but at what ultimate price? I imagine a brand-new one of those would've been around $10K or more, unless it was a total stripper. Guess I could've bought a used one, but that would've still been what? $5-6K or more. Plus, my insurance back then was $1361 that first year. I had to get a policy in my own name because me stepdad was being a..umm, wait, we don't use that kind of talk here. :P That was for liability-only on a free Malibu. A few years later, I got a quote on a brand-new Ford Probe, just a stripper base 4-cyl/automatic. That was about $3200/year, even after a few years of a good driving discount! So just starting off in 1987, I'm sure that CRX would've been an easy $3K per year for full coverage.
So that $6-10K initial cost, plus the $1900 or so annual savings in insurance, paid for an awful lot of gas in that free Malibu! :shades:
Still, I agree with you, as much as we may whine about high fuel prices, gasoline is a relative bargain.
Many commuters are turning in their keys for a chance at saving some green.
From July to October of last year, bus rider ship went up 60 percent, from 5000 riders each month to 8000 riders each month."
http://www.ktvb.com/news/localnews/stories/ktvbn-feb1408-valleyride_ridership.c1- 2f9f82.html (KTBY)
Where else can you crowd into a small space with dozens of people you don't know (and don't want to know), and rub against them while the bus stops and starts, turns left and right?
Think of the laughs you'll have as pickpockets grab your wallet while perverts grab your .... well, you know.
Plus, you'll enjoy smells you've never experienced before, and witness first hand the decline of western civilization.
Best of all, you'll be doing your part to save the planet!
Al Gore would thank you, but he's busy flying his Gulfstream II to a lucrative speaking engagement. Besides, you're love of the environment should be thanks enough.
Stay Green!
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In Phoenix and in San Francisco, the two places I have ridden city buses in the last 12 months, it's NOTHING like that.
The buses are cleaned daily.
They are not populated by only the homeless and the destitute.
Bumping against people in the bus was rare, and if it DID happen, it's no different than bumping into someone walking past you in the Mall.
And yes, you are doing your part in conservation. And it's usually pretty cheap. And it usually gets you within a block or two of where you are trying to go. And I did not once have to "hold my nose" or "grab my wallet."
Now, having said all that: will riding a bus be completely rosy and perfect experience? Possibly not. But anyone who thinks of themselves as so perfect and pristine that they cannot ride a bus, I feel sorry for them.
People with attitudes like your post described are out of touch with modern public transportation and are perpetuating an old-school, incorrect stereotype.
Anyway, it usually took him about an hour to get to work and an hour to get home. Nowadays he drives to work, and it takes him 20 minutes, on a bad day.
I remember the biggest complaint my Dad had was that, even though these buses were air conditioned, people were constantly putting the windows down even on the hottest days, pretty much cancelling out the a/c, and letting in all sorts of fumes.
Still, there are situations where taking the bus can be convenient. Just not in my Dad's case. Or in mine, where the nearest bus stop is about a mile away, and in the opposite direction from work! I'd imagine though, that the more high-density the area you live in, the more convenient the bus would be. Even if just to eliminate the hassles of driving in congested traffic, hunting for a parking spot, etc.
Whackos do ride on buses. How do you know when you will be on that bus with a crazy person?
WATSONVILLE, Calif. (AP) -- An unruly bus passenger grabbed the steering and forced the Santa Cruz Metro bus off Highway 1 in Watsonville.
The bus was en route to Santa Cruz yesterday afternoon when the passenger apparently saw his girlfriend's car involved in an accident and demanded to be let off the bus.
Sheriff's deputy Rob Linblad says the driver refused to pull over and the passenger grabbed the steering wheel, forcing the bus off the highway and onto a hill.
And it's usually pretty cheap.
Not in San Diego. $5 bucks for a round trip that I can make in my Sequoia for less. Plus I have to drive 2.8 miles to catch the bus with no place to park my vehicle while I am gone. San Diego is cutting 10% of their service due to lack of riders.
I think a case could be made to give each rider a Fit or Yaris and scrap the whole mass transit system. The city is going broke and MTS is a big part of the problem.
And it has it's problems, as does any urban transit system. It's not economically feasible to put in enough routes to enough places to solve all the needs of 3.2 million people. It's just never going to be perfect. It cannot ever be.
But some sort of personal self-sacrifice is required in life sometimes, for the greater good.
If you have to walk ten blocks and it takes you an hour to get to work when you could drive it in 20 minutes, then that's just the price to pay for polluting less and putting fewer miles on your car, which ends up being money in your pocket someday when you sell the car.
Many people I have talked to take the bus because they cannot afford a car. Or, they have had their driver's license suspended or revoked for various traffic offenses. Or their main commute vehicle is getting repaired. For those people, any sacrifice is not too much because they are forced into taking the bus.
As an indication of the value of urban transit: What would all those thousands of people do if there was no bus system? Many of them would be on the unemployment roll call. Some others would buy a bike, some others would try to bum rides, some others would walk, and some would just not go.
I think many thousands more people could and should take the bus. There was a survey here in town recently that found that 91 percent of the commuters surveyed took their primary vehicle to work every day ALONE IN THE VEHICLE. That is simply idiotic for the number to be that high.
Attitudes and stereotypes of bus transit has to change for that number to go down.
No one is "too good" to take the bus, and if they think they are, then their ego is out of control.
And it you think the city bus is the only place you run into the occasional wacko, you better wake the heck up. They are everywhere.
Go for a few days trying to avoid the general public. See how that works out.
San Diego monthly passes average out to $2.13 per day. Students get it for about half that. Children riding with a paying adult are free.
Oh I'm not denying that mass transit is a good thing. A lot of people depend on it, and it makes life better for many. In my Dad's case, he didn't even have a car for a good 15 years or more, so he depended on that bus.
Heck, I'd be willing to take a bus to work if it was convenient. But it just isn't. I can drive it in about 6-7 minutes. 10 on a bad day. In theory I could walk it in about an hour, but that's just not safe, walking the shoulder of a 4-lane divided road where traffic routinely gets up to 60+ mph.
He might have handled wrong? He should be sent up to prison or a mental hospital. There is NEVER a reason good enough to endanger the lives of others. Yes there are wackos everywhere. The further I get out from the urban environment the less the odds on being a victim of just such a person. Looks to me like schools and College are the most dangerous. I don't care if gas is $20 per gallon, riding the bus is not a good option.
I bet the bus drivers do have a few yarns to swap back in the bus barn though.
Yeah, I agree, why do people insist on opening up the windows when a vehicle's air conditioning system is working to cool the inside down?
"Well, I needed air," is a response I've heard. Umm...that's a requirement though, for the car's A/C system to work properly, ya know? We need to keep the windows rolled up! No response. And when the window opens up I can literally feel the hot Arizona air come rushing inside the car.
Oh well.
2021 Kia Soul LX 6-speed stick
I didn't remember they made house walls out of straw bales. You could grow your tomatoes in the walls of your house, literally. A big thing here is to prep bales of straw and grow tomoatoes in them. They hold moisture and serve well to hold the roots and keep them from drying out. The straw bale are replacing bucket and large pots.
I can hear it now, "Honey, where should we put the garden? The kitchen wall or the bedroom wall."
I'm off to do some surfing looking at straw house info.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
On the down side, they are 20+ miles from town and the nearest grocery ... but they do have an Echo for running errands.
I have about 15 bales left from fall mulching - will have to try the tomato trick.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,