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Whether you think it fair or not, there is no rule saying that everyone has to have gas and oil. I know people who have 2 large houses heated with oil and 3 large vehicles, and I know people who don't have the money for a car and gasoline.
I too agree that this is the most likely scenario we will see - as long as there are no disastarous unforeseen events, natural, political or otherwise - in the intermediate term. I think that we are closer and closer to living on the very edge of rationing. If fuel supplies cannot keep up with demand then the markets should decide who drives and what vehicles should be driven - within reason. The problem with letting the markets fluctuate absolutely freely is that at some point certain people are squeezed out. People earning the minimum wage or slightly above it simply cannot afford to drive much at $6 or $8 a gallon.
Does the fact of ultra-high fuel prices mean that certain citizens are precluded from working? Does it drive them out of the workplace and onto the welfare rolls? It might. The government might have to step in with subsidized fuel stamps in conjuction with food stamps.
Any significant event might however push us to shortterm rationing but until a good supply of alt-fuels is available we're living on the razor's edge of being 'out of fuel'. That edge is thinner and thinner by the year as demand goes up and supply goes down or goes flat.
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
And which box might that be? A casket? :surprise: Seriously, I've thought about riding my bike into work, but the streets around here are just too dangerous. If they had dedicated bike lanes, or even just a halfway decent shoulder, I'd be tempted to try it.
I only used their bus service once but whenever I'm there I'm a regular customer on their Metro train system.
Do Paris's subway systems still smell like pee? I was there in 1994, and the stations reeked of it.
One of my roommates bought one of those things a couple years ago. But it both blow and sucks. It's electric powered, so I guess that's not TOO evil on the environment, but I swear I can rake the leave up quicker than that thing can blow them. Or suck them.
They make a fast and easy way to dry off your car after washing it without any worries of scratching the clearcoat. They're also handy for removing water after you've detailed the engine bay.
I only noticed that smell once when I was there in 1999 and that was at an underground bus station, not the train. I'm not saying someone won't encounter such things now but the putrid smells and the panhandlers were all gone last August.
Sorry to here there's no safe route for bike commuting for you. When you mentioned the shoulder in your original message it sounded like the way to go.
When I first started riding to work I got out a local map and discovered many alternate side roads that no one would ever consider taking by car as their main route. Even on the two-lane roads where there's no shoulder drivers seem to be tolerant of the guy on a bike.
I'm saving lots of money on gas but I don't ride for that reason. I've found it's a good way to sweat away any stresses in life, it's a great way to stay in shape and it's just plain fun. I do give a big thumbs up whenever I ride past a gas station where they've recently rasied their prices.
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
Oh, sorry about the confusion there. I'm only on that road for about 2.5 miles of my 3.5 mile commute, but it's not something I'd really want to ride a bike on. For about half of the distance, it does have a shoulder, although you have to share it with three merge lanes. Plus, it's pretty debris-laden, so I can't imagine it would be too much fun to ride a bike on.
The other half of that road used to have a shoulder, but a few years ago, the road was repaved and re-striped, and what had once been the shoulder is now sort of an eternal merge/exit lane. And sometimes people just get over into that lane, punch it, and blow on through, trying to pass as many other cars on the right as they can, until it ends.
Still, there are some people who ride their bikes to work, so it can be done I guess. But I really do want to live to be old. :shades:
The $12 billion disagreement between Exxon and Chavez is the excuse this time. But watch out -- we had a refinery explosion today here in Texas, so gas might jump even higher.
Don't put anything past the propogandists.
Some people seem to think that gas prices will stabilize or even drop this year, because it's an election year. They think that the Bush admin. secretly controls prices, and that they'll keep them steady to help the next GOP candidate.
Other people think that the oil companies will keep prices down, because of the prospect that a Democrat will win the presidency. The companies supposedly fear a "windfall profits tax," so they'll behave.
Personally, I don't think oil companies fear or obey any politician. They know they control a huge portion of the economy, so they do whatever they want.
I see $4 gas this year in isolated markets like the bay area and other well-known expensive locations. Overall, I think we'll be paying $3.50 or more by Summer.
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Perfect, no more mowing. :P
Gas jumped Saturday here from $2.99 most places to $3.06.
Leaf blowers are awful. Should be regulated to be "electric only" if not completely banned.
What has caused the recent jump? Just the Chavez posturing? Are oil traders that stupid? Venezuela NEEDS to sell to the US. Chavez isn't going to stop shipping oil here.
What drives me crazy is here in California, we supposedly have a unique supply of gas, because of the special formulation. So when demand is up for summer or whatever, they say it's natural for prices to rise meteorically in California because there is a limited number of refiners here.
But then, when some refinery far across the country blows up, one that isn't supplying us with gas anyway, our prices still rise! No fair. :mad:
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
In the near term, I don't have a car payment right now, so trading in a car that gets 20mpg for one that gets 35mpg (but costs me $350 a month in payments) doesn't make sense.
Oil prices are still within the range of inflation-adjusted highs set in early 1980. Depending on how the adjustment is calculated, $38 a barrel then would be worth $96 to $103 or more today.
The dollar fell Tuesday, giving investors another reason to buy oil. Crude futures offer a hedge against a falling dollar, and oil futures bought and sold in dollars are more attractive to foreign investors when the greenback is falling.
For the moment, investors appear to have put aside concerns about the economy that have sent oil prices down into the mid-$80 range twice since crude peaked above $100 last month. Traders are instead focused on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which will meet early next month to map out production plans, and Venezuela, where President Hugo Chavez made conflicting statements this weekend about the country's legal dispute with Exxon Mobil Corp.
OPEC could move to cut production in the second quarter, typically a period of low demand, though many analysts feel that's unlikely. In Venezuela, Chavez said he was not serious about an earlier threat to cut oil sales to the U.S., but also threatened to sue Exxon Mobil. The world's largest oil company is fighting Venezuela's nationalization of an oil project, and recently convinced several courts to freeze $12 billion in Venezuelan oil assets.
None of the news is enough to justify a nearly $3 a barrel jump in the price of crude, said James Cordier, founder of OptionSellers.com, a Tampa, Fla., trading firm. Echoing other analysts, Cordier argued that the oil market is in the process of "decoupling" from oil's supply and demand fundamentals. He said investors drawn by the falling dollar and momentum are pushing oil prices sharply higher despite reports last week from the Energy Department,
Heck, if the kids are old enough make them do the yard work.
I have an economic solution I use to clean my driveway and sidewalk - it's called a broom. Needs no water, gas or electricity to operate.
He really doesn't get it. It is all about the "supply and demand fundamentals". The world just doesn't have much reserve capacity. OPEC is pumping flat out with the exception of Saudi Arabia, which may have a small reserve capacity of heavy crude. If one just looks at crude and condensate production, the highest monthly production occured in May of '05 at 74.3 million barrels per day. The present production of just over 87 million barrels per day is being made possible by ethanol (and other biofuels), natural gas plant liquids, tar sands, and a couple of other sources.
The question seems to be can new production coming on line make up for global depletion rates? No one can say with absolute certainy, but consider that over a fifth of the world's production comes from Saudi Arabia and Russia. While the Saudis can probably keep pumping along at 9 mil barrels per day for years, Russia may well be near the end of the line at current production levels. Also consider that the major producers all have increasing internal demand that directly affects their exports. Here in the States, even with flat consumption, we have to import more fossil fuels just to keep up with declines in production. Saudi Arabia moved up from our number three supplier to number two, replacing Mexico. Mexican production is dropping very fast.
Interesting times indeed.
He really doesn't get it. It is all about the "supply and demand fundamentals". The world just doesn't have much reserve capacity. OPEC is pumping flat out with the exception of Saudi Arabia, which may have a small reserve capacity of heavy crude. If one just looks at crude and condensate production, the highest monthly production occurred in May of '05 at 74.3 million barrels per day. The present production of just over 87 million barrels per day is being made possible by ethanol (and other biofuels), natural gas plant liquids, tar sands, and a couple of other sources.
The question seems to be can new production coming on line make up for global depletion rates? No one can say with absolute certainty, but consider that over a fifth of the world's production comes from Saudi Arabia and Russia. While the Saudis can probably keep pumping along at 9 mil barrels per day for years, Russia may well be near the end of the line at current production levels. Also consider that the major producers all have increasing internal demand that directly affects their exports. Here in the States, even with flat consumption, we have to import more fossil fuels just to keep up with declines in production. Saudi Arabia moved up from our number three supplier to number two, replacing Mexico. Mexican production is dropping very fast.
Interesting times indeed.
Oil prices have traded in a fairly tight range over the past 6 months. Meaning that these recent prices increases must have been offset by other price decreases. It's interesting that people never question whether or not a price decrease makes sense. Oh, but when the price goes up, there's a conspiracy everywhere.
In the past, the Saudis have been heavily swayed by the fact that the U.S. was by far their best customer. But in future, they will sell more to China, India, and others. The amount of sway the U.S. government will have over the Saudis will be substantially reduced.
it will change the picture a bit if the price of oil gets so high that it becomes profitable for Canadian companies to mine the oil shale, or whatever that is called. Apparently, there is a lot of oil tied up in there. And they would be a more friendly supplier if we have to turn to foreign oil. But if the price of oil got that high, we would have OTHER problems...
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Yeah, but you conveniently left out the petrol costs for growing the fiber or making plastic straw, the cost of manufacturing, the fuel bill for shipping and diesel for the Demsey Dumpster for taking it to the dump when it's time to dispose of it.
You going to sweep all that oil expense under the rug? :shades:
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As far as I'm concerned there are a lot of questions there. First off I'm no expert so all my posts are base upon what I read.
The Saudis are currently producing between 9-10 million barrels a day. This isn't far off their historical high. They claim that they are capable of producing 13-15 million barrels a day yet they've never done this and from what I've read they haven't been investing enough in their oil infrastructure to pull this off. On top of that there is speculation that some of Saudis biggest reserves are being depleted at a rate that exceeds the government's officially published figures. The Saudis don't allow outside verification of this. And even if you believe the best case scenario this 4 billion barrels of extra Saudi production only equates to 3 years demand growth and that's based upon the other major producers like Russia, US, Mexico maintaining their current levels, which is unlikely.
One word "rain".
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
Yeah, but you conveniently left out the petrol costs for growing the fiber or making plastic straw, the cost of manufacturing, the fuel bill for shipping and diesel for the Demsey Dumpster for taking it to the dump when it's time to dispose of it.
You going to sweep all that oil expense under the rug?
I think the keyword here is operate. Besides, if you want to factor in the manufacturing resources plus the energy required to operate the equipment I'll gladly put my broom up against any leaf blower to see which comes out ahead on energy conservation.
And there aren't any rugs on my driveway. :P
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
It's like the true cost to own - people focus on mpg and gas prices but ignore insurance costs or parts availability expenses that affect their total out of pocket. (not you, but people, but you know what I mean).
A lot of that goes on when we consider replacing our ICE with electric motors. It's cheaper at the pump, but I don't really want any more stretches of rivers dammed up to provide cheap hydro for people to run their Priuses (or electric leaf blowers or Google server farms). And I'm not quite ready to put a nuke in my garage.
Factor in all that stuff and oil prices don't look all that bad.
Unless you drive for a living maybe....
Tar sands, alas, are a lot harder to extract oil from than drilling holes in the ground.
It's easy to make blanket statements like that but a little cursory digging will turn up all sorts of pros and cons to any energy "solution." Nothing comes neatly wrapped in a little black and white engineering package.
Not to mention if we simply unplugged all the power bricks and instant on TVs, we could shut down a few power plants and still energize another million Priuses.
The ones in various stages of construction around the Tehachapi area are not, I don't think, on Indian reservations?
Edison has signed futures contracts to buy energy from this ever-expanding nucleus of wind power generation:
http://www.edison.com/pressroom/pr.asp?id=6487
In NorCal, I believe they intend to expand around the Rio Vista wind farm quite extensively. Despite California's low number of good sites for wind farms, there is a healthy future for wind power here.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Scott
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D