Houses cost too much!

fintail

I dunno, if something is deemed legal and property is acquired legally, a bunch of dorks with weapons won't be able to do much. Here's the strategy - don't sell to those in the wacky tobacky industry, or when rights come up for sale, buy them yourselves to keep them away from the industry. These "conservatives" (I hope of the Ike type and not the 45 type) will need to put their money where their mouth is.

I am completely happy with the laws here, this is the way of the future. Not everything is perfect, but this place is better than most, and the resources devoted to enforcing corrupt puritanical laws can be put to better use elsewhere. Prohibition, bought and paid for by the tobacco industry, doesn't work. Prohibition in and of itself is on the wrong side of history. Just wait another decade.

The complete opening up of real estate markets to unvetted offshore money has more of a societal impact than finally moving away from laws bought by lobbyists.

berri

If a legitimate medical doctor prescribes it, what business is it of the government or anyone else to decide? If I was near Vegas I'd have qualms with marijuana growing though because it is a big water draw.

gagrice

I don't care that pot is legal. I am against wasting water on it. It is a very thirsty plant. No big deal in the NW where they have plenty of free water. As for off shore money buying real estate in the US. It has been happening for a very long time. I remember in the 1970s when the Japanese were buying land in Hawaii, AK, CA etc. Then their economy tanked and I got some real deals when it crashed the Hawaii RE market.

fintail

Good point, it is better suited for here than many places - more progressive minds, more water. We have ample water, might as well use it and make something to bring in tax revenue at the same time.

I don't think there's any precedent for the current situation. This isn't just offshore money, this is laundered money that would likely put a person in prison if it was obtained the same way here. It is also (so far) mainly being put into residential properties, which has priced a generation out of the market in some locales. These buyers need to face an onerous tax, with the proceeds used to improve crumbling infrastructure that luckier ones who came before have neglected.

gagrice

I know in Vancouver before Hong Kong went back to Chinese rule the rich were getting out and buying up Vancouver real estate. I think the Chinese want to turn their wealth into US dollars. Some countries like New Zealand you can buy a citizenship. Not sure I like that. Of course you can always bring your pregnant wife to the US and have the baby delivered here. Automatic ticket to claim all sorts of benefits. If you were one of the 300 million middle class Chinese, would you not want to get in on the US land boom? When the Japanese invaded with boatloads of cash they bought everything in sight. It was dirt cheap even in California compare to Japan. We just closed on those two lots today and there is a form for foreign buyers. You have to pay some kind of tax.

fintail

Residency is definitely for sale in the US too, look at the EB-5 visa program. Son of a conman son in law of a conman Jared was even in China last year hawking them to kleptocrats. Very few of those 300MM "middle class" (not always by western standards) people can afford to launder money here, but the top few can, often well-connected CPC members who are looking for an escape route should Jinping finally crack down. I don't agree with citizenship or residency being for sale - and the latter is for sale virtually everywhere in the world, with very few questions asked about the sources of money. Insult is added to injury when the money is then used to wreak havoc in specific real estate markets. Most of the US really isn't in a land boom, but a few places are going hogwild, and it isn't always because of local demand.

Nowhere in the US has a meaningful tax on offshore buyers, nor any rigid vetting re: the origins of money. The 15% tax in Vancouver is a nice step, but not nearly enough. This tax is new, and the HK zillionaires who wanted out before the handover were a different breed, a lot less brash.

gagrice

We close on our two lots Tuesday. Talking to the realtor her sold sign brought lots of inquiries if both lots had sold. One fellow had been watching them for over a year. He was really upset that both had sold. Our plan is to put the lot furthest from us bordering the house with the Chain Link Fence back on the market. They were under priced considering the county has taken over the golf course. It has really been busy since they took over. When you consider these lots went as high as $100k before the real estate bust, we may sell one for what we paid for both. Both lots as seen from the 11th Green.

fintail

For the price you paid, maybe just hold it and enjoy the buffer zone. It's not likely to depreciate, and you enjoy the extra space.

Hilarious that someone would sit for a year then be upset when something sells. When you see something for sale that you really want and won't be able to find again, the time to buy is always now.

gagrice

fintail said:

For the price you paid, maybe just hold it and enjoy the buffer zone. It's not likely to depreciate, and you enjoy the extra space.

Hilarious that someone would sit for a year then be upset when something sells. When you see something for sale that you really want and won't be able to find again, the time to buy is always now.

I wanted to try and buy since we moved in. I did not want to deplete our savings until I was fairly sure of the sale on our CA home. As you can see from the plat map it would be possible for someone to build a 6 foot fence and cut off 72 feet of our view. You are correct that it is not likely to go back down from what we paid. Give it a year and see where the market goes. Who knows we may build a house if it looks like we could make money on it. Not on the closest lot. I would kind of like a fruit orchard on that lot. The peach tree we planted is loaded with peaches.

kyfdx

@gagrice

So, is your house lot 185 or 187? And, which other lot did you buy?

fintail

I am guessing you are 187?

Orchard wouldn't be bad, other than the watering.

gagrice said:

I wanted to try and buy since we moved in. I did not want to deplete our savings until I was fairly sure of the sale on our CA home. As you can see from the plat map it would be possible for someone to build a 6 foot fence and cut off 72 feet of our view. You are correct that it is not likely to go back down from what we paid. Give it a year and see where the market goes. Who knows we may build a house if it looks like we could make money on it. Not on the closest lot. I would kind of like a fruit orchard on that lot. The peach tree we planted is loaded with peaches.

gagrice

kyfdx said:

@gagrice

So, is your house lot 185 or 187? And, which other lot did you buy?

Our home is on 187. We bought 184 & 185. Our neighbors at 183, 186 & 188 are thrilled. The dust from building in the desert is bad. The dirt is very fine clay. Called puff dirt. That is why so many cover their yards with rock. That and easy to maintain.

gagrice

Fintail, Water is really cheap here. $1.80 per 1000 gallons. In San Diego we paid $6.50 for 700 gallons plus $40 a month service charge. Our service charge here is $20 a month. We could easily irrigate the trees from our existing service.

fintail

I bet 186 is especially thrilled, they owe you a Christmas present

I meant the effort of watering along with the cost, the infrastructure won't be free. Must be quite an aquifer there.

gagrice

The area we seriously considered buying a home in Hawaii, is now completely cut off. All the roads leading into are covered with Lava. And the current flow is headed right where we rented last May. Glad we got one last chance to visit Kapoho. It is our favorite place in all Hawaii. 87 homes have been destroyed by lava. It does not sound like they were able to buy insurance. And many were built without permits.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrlVffqU7sY

https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/multimedia_maps.html

http://www.staradvertiser.com/2018/06/02/breaking-news/lava-crosses-highway-137-limits-access-to-kapoho-vacationland/

gagrice

We wanted to look at this house in Kapoho while we were there last May. It was pending sale by the time we got there. Several others got taken off just before we got there. It was for the best. This one is now completely isolated and may get destroyed by lava.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/14-4916-Kaheka-Rd-Pahoa-HI-96778/536197_zpid/?fullpage=true

fintail

I've been following the recent activity, I was really interested in volcanology when I was younger, and the amount of real time data available today is fascinating. There was a really good streaming video channel from someone just above the geothermal plant, but last weekend they lost power, and it is gone (they were uphill from the main flows and the house may have survived, but could be isolated). Now, this youtuber may have the best updated videos:

https://www.youtube.com/user/ApauHawaiiTours/videos

I'd love to visit just to see this, very similar to the amazing lava fountains of 1955-60, which were in the same area. I can't imagine those properties were insurable (for volcanic damage, anyway) - anyone with even a basic knowledge of geology should know the dangers of building on the rift zone of an active volcano. Insurance companies can't be that dumb. It's a risk you take building there- you might make it hundreds of years with no issues, or a fissure could open in an hour.

gagrice

It was a gamble when we bought the lot in Leilani 14 years ago. Good price low risk. We paid $17k in 2004. Just a few years later they peaked at about $65k. I should have sold then. Last year after the 2014-15 eruption scare in Pahoa, we were lucky to get $21k. Only place with RE price swings like Hawaii is Alaska. Like the 2007 housing bubble several times over the last 50 years.

That is a good Utube link, thanks

fintail

There's a reason it was so cheap (and a reason it got bid up, too, but that reason is a corrupt and broken real estate market rather than intrinsic value). I can get vacant lots a stones throw from the beach on the WA coast for the price of a Camry - for a reason. I suppose those rift zone prices are a lot less than other parts of the island, or other islands.

Youtube content may decline now, as more and more roads are being closed off - maybe to discourage possible looters, as there's not a ton of risk from the volcanic activity so long as you have a gasmask, helmet, and can walk more than 1 mph (and keep an eye on the flows so you don't get stuck on an island in a lava river).

Here's a good crowdsourced google maps project that appears to provide better data than the official sources:

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?urp=https://www.facebook.com/&mid=1CvBhH9wEeztBrqYbsGDi4YjU1k1QH5AL&ll=19.44747907039587,-154.91617710020523&z=13

gagrice

It looks like the house we stayed in last May will be destroyed if not already. Very sad, as that is the nicest place in all the Islands to just relax and enjoy the beauty. No touristy stuff. Closest restaurants are in Pahoa 9 miles away. When there was a road. That is all gone. Largest fresh water lake on the Island is now filled with lava. The arrow on the map is pointing at a $5.7 million home. I am sure it is gone. Started out at $12 million in 2013.



https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/14-4934-Laimana-Ave-Pahoa-HI-96778/89171220_zpid/?fullpage=true

fintail

Looks like a bad day there yeah, if fissure 8 stays active as it has for the past several days, I suspect that cove and everything around it will be gone this week - probably more higher end stuff compared to Leilani and surrounding developments The flow has advanced eastward a lot in the past 48hours ago, last week that area didn't seem to be in much danger.

The prices on that place seem amusing given the zestimate.

gagrice

The homes in Kapoho were far more expensive than Leilani. Different demographic. Most were vacation rentals in Kapoho. A few retirees and native Hawaiians. Many new homes built there since my first visit around 2000. Many of the vacation rentals have hot ponds. Some natural some man made. They are all fed from underground freshwater that is about 90 degrees year round. Crystal clear water with many tropical fish both fresh and salt water. The ponds rise and fall with the tide. All porous lava rock. Most were also private and wonderful to swim in sans clothes. My ex loved it there so we went many times.

gagrice

One of our trips to Kapoho we stayed in this place. It was for sale at $250k. Which I thought was outrageous around 2002. It sold for $580k 3 years later. But now it may be destroyed. I am very thankful we got to spend last May in Kapoho. That is when we made our decision to move to Pahrump. Glad we did.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/14-4986-Waiopae-Rd-Pahoa-HI-96778/536155_zpid/?fullpage=true

fintail

I saw that, "Green Lake" (maybe more of a large pond?) wasn't just overran by lava, but it was effectively vaporized, turned to steam. I've never seen anything like that. It looks like most of the houses near the water and those pretty tidepools etc are in grave danger now. Definitely made a lucky decision on not buying there, as I assume these aren't insurable losses.

A link to a sobering map, addresses of houses destroyed (and no doubt more since it was last updated)

gagrice

I would say dozens of homes in Kapoho are destroyed. Rebuilding is out of the question for decades. Most of the 1955-60 flows are still bare lava. A few trees and shrubs is all that is growing on it. From the 6 AM USGS picture, it was less than 800 ft from the place we stayed last May. If it continues along the shore line.




https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/multimedia_chronology.html

fintail

I guess that's it for the little cove. Sad, but nature marches on no matter what we think we can do.

Are any of those places a little ways out of the traditional rift zone insurable? Did you look into insurance when you were there?

gagrice

The only home we had was in Lava Zone 3 and insurance was pretty cheap. when we looked at homes in Kapoho and other high risk places, I assumed they would not cover volcano destruction. Like here in Pahrump we have to have Flood insurance. They consider it a 500 year flood zone. No recorded floods. If you finance you pay about $300 a year for flood insurance.

Got some good news today from the Tax assessor. She told me the assessment has little to do with what we pay for taxes. By law they cannot raise more than 3% a year. Could be less depending on the state. So my $2676 will not increase before 2019. And then at most $80. Nothing like CA where it went up based on the value before the crash. And I can do any kind of landscaping on my two lots without increasing the taxes. Love this place more every day. Wonderful walk around the course this morning about sunrise. Cool 68 degrees. Hit 101 today. Stayed a cool 76 inside.

gagrice

This video shows the bay we swam in being filled with lava. That was yesterday evening. I am sure the houses are all gone. The Hawaiian family had owned them for a couple generations. Now all gone. Nothing is forever.

http://www.bigislandvideonews.com/2018/06/04/video-kapoho-lava-flow-update-from-civil-defense/

Last shot of our Hawaii Vacation home.

fintail

I assumed this area isn't insurable, all of these losses are going to hurt. The risk you take when building in an area known to have hazards, and why land is cheap. It could have remained safe for generations, but might be gone tomorrow. I suspect that entire little cove is gone now, a shame for the wildlife lost as well as the houses.

In 1960, this was a scene maybe a mile down the road in Kapoho (consumed by the 1960 flows, I believe). The more things change...:





It wasn't the first time in memory, I think those flows were just to the north. I remember these images from books when I was a kid, as the cars caught my eye.

76 is pretty warm inside for me! I have the AC on when it is like that. Knock it down to around 70, then I am fine, us in the PNW aren't used to that. Regarding taxes, you definitely aren't in CA anymore, a lot less overhead.

berri

I read that some of the issues are getting up toward the Hilo airport? Hope it doesn't mess up Big Island Chocolates.

gagrice

berri said:

I read that some of the issues are getting up toward the Hilo airport? Hope it doesn't mess up Big Island Chocolates.

I hope it did not interrupt my order of Hawaiian Sea Salt from Hilo. Best salt we have ever used. And we have tried a lot of different ones.

http://www.hawaiisalt.com/welcome.htm

gagrice

Fintail: 76 is pretty warm inside for me! I have the AC on when it is like that. Knock it down to around 70, then I am fine, us in the PNW aren't used to that. Regarding taxes, you definitely aren't in CA anymore, a lot less overhead.

At 76-77 constant we are in heaven compared to San Diego. We were very frugal with AC. Never used it until the house was over 80 degrees. To cool that place to 80 would be about $250 a month. Our neighbor had a smaller house his wife kept at low 70s. They had bills over $500 a month. Nothing I miss, except the Mexican food was better. Getting used to making our own.

fintail

I don't have as much square footage, my electric bill was $21 for last month - and I used AC a little. It might peak at $25 in summer and $40 in winter, as rates rise.

Michaell

I may have mentioned that our new house comes with solar. It gets activated later this week. Hoping it will help slash the electric bill.

Mr_Shiftright

Michaell said:

I may have mentioned that our new house comes with solar. It gets activated later this week. Hoping it will help slash the electric bill.

Do you have radiant electric heat? Or do you use electric just for hot water for bath and laundry?

Michaell

Mr_Shiftright said:

Michaell said:

I may have mentioned that our new house comes with solar. It gets activated later this week. Hoping it will help slash the electric bill.

Do you have radiant electric heat? Or do you use electric just for hot water for bath and laundry?

I have a natural gas water heater and range. Electric for all other appliances, and A/C.

berri

I've had both gas and electric furnace and water heater. Much prefer the natural gas. Not just operating costs, but performance.

Mr_Shiftright

Michaell said:

Mr_Shiftright said:

Michaell said:

I may have mentioned that our new house comes with solar. It gets activated later this week. Hoping it will help slash the electric bill.

Do you have radiant electric heat? Or do you use electric just for hot water for bath and laundry?

I have a natural gas water heater and range. Electric for all other appliances, and A/C.

Oh I see. So you're using solar to put kWs back into the grid. I was curious as some solar systems "boost" hot water tanks and radiant heating systems. Sure it should save you some $$$, depending on a) the weather (duh) b) the size of your array and c) whether the builders put it in the right spot.

gagrice

fintail said:

I don't have as much square footage, my electric bill was $21 for last month - and I used AC a little. It might peak at $25 in summer and $40 in winter, as rates rise.

Better hope CA does not get their sticky fingers onto your cheap hydro electric. Probably enough eco nuts in California that want to shut down all hydro and demolish the Dams. Our cooperative is still buying cheap coal power from the Navajo nation. That should be good for another 15-20 years. We do have a 75 acre solar farm in Pahrump. Not sure what percentage of our power it produces. I am sure it adds power when needed for all the AC units running in town.

fintail

Cheap power is seen as a key economic driver here, so hopefully it will continue. At the same time, this place has been overrun with Californicators for 30 years, so who knows. Fortunately I don't want a ton of square footage, so I should be OK either way.

Funny thing, my mom lives in a far outlying area with a questionably managed PUD, her monthly base service fee is more than my bill - and I live in the high cost high tax area.

gagrice said:

Better hope CA does not get their sticky fingers onto your cheap hydro electric. Probably enough eco nuts in California that want to shut down all hydro and demolish the Dams. Our cooperative is still buying cheap coal power from the Navajo nation. That should be good for another 15-20 years. We do have a 75 acre solar farm in Pahrump. Not sure what percentage of our power it produces. I am sure it adds power when needed for all the AC units running in town.

fintail

Something sad, gagrice - Kapoho Bay is gone

berri

Isn't there a move by some in the PNW to tear down the hydro dams for the salmon and other water life? Thought I read something about that not all that long ago.

Mr_Shiftright

Oh, like everyone in Seattle was born there---LOL!

berri

That's an interesting demographic question; percentagewise who has the biggest proportion of "native" born to the area, SoCal, NoCal or PNW? I'll guess NoCal because until not that long ago Seattle and Portland weren't that large of metropolitan areas, while people in Lalaland get restless easily.

fintail

Seattle and the metro area as a whole has experienced tremendous growth in the past decade, and it started a generation ago. People here were grousing about Californians in 1990, but normal working people could still afford houses then. Now we're overrun with more Californians, trust fund hipsters from flyover land, techie types from everywhere, etc.

gagrice

fintail said:

Something sad, gagrice - Kapoho Bay is gone

Looking at your map, every place we stayed in Kapoho is gone. One contractor we visited every trip, built high on the hillside. His home is gone. This place I wanted to buy and could not swing it back in 2004 is still there. It is surrounded on 3 sides by lava from the 1960 eruption. So far it is safe. If the flow stops now he will still have a few neighbors.

gagrice

fintail said:

Seattle and the metro area as a whole has experienced tremendous growth in the past decade, and it started a generation ago. People here were grousing about Californians in 1990, but normal working people could still afford houses then. Now we're overrun with more Californians, trust fund hipsters from flyover land, techie types from everywhere, etc.

It goes back to the 1960s. My folks were living in Ashland Oregon. They were in the middle of a building boom for all the people moving up from California. My dad was working for Capp Homes and they could not keep up with the demand. It has been a steady flow into and out of California since the great Depression. When they got to Washington, no where else to go.

gagrice

berri said:

That's an interesting demographic question; percentagewise who has the biggest proportion of "native" born to the area, SoCal, NoCal or PNW? I'll guess NoCal because until not that long ago Seattle and Portland weren't that large of metropolitan areas, while people in Lalaland get restless easily.

I would say at least 90% of the people we meet in Pahrump NV are from CA. Our personal banker at Wells Fargo left CA with her parents. Met her husband here that left CA with his parents. They like to take the kids and vacation in San Diego. Would NEVER think of moving back to CA.

Mr_Shiftright

Well, talking about California is like talking about Europe. There's Provence, there's Tuscany, and there's Bulgaria, so I think one's contentment or DIS depends a lot on which part of this enormous state one finds themselves.

Also, your situation in life, and your age makes a difference. I mean, I'm not going to move to NV to save $1 a gallon on gas, or $142 on my car registration. But if I had a little Empire and it was besieged by various taxes and social pressures, I might think differently.

fintail

There's been migration here for 200 years, technically. But insane housing costs (and sometimes illicit movements behind it) are something of the 21st century.

And yeah, IMO saying all of CA is some kind of hellhole is like when those in other countries say the US is a hellhole. Some of it is, but some of it is quite nice. For me, it's a cool place to visit, but I am not itching to move there.

gagrice said:

It goes back to the 1960s. My folks were living in Ashland Oregon. They were in the middle of a building boom for all the people moving up from California. My dad was working for Capp Homes and they could not keep up with the demand. It has been a steady flow into and out of California since the great Depression. When they got to Washington, no where else to go.