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Can VW Overtake Toyota and GM To Become #1?

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Comments

  • berriberri Member Posts: 10,165
    Well, by the same token why is it the government's right to pocket all the money they make off the adverse experience of their citizens? The government wasn't harmed, the impacted citizens were. They get the reduced performance and reduced residual value from the cheating. On top of that, even if you make the argument that the government gets all the money because of the environmental ramifications, the money will more than likely be used elsewhere on other matters.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Same reason the government collects for other violations, like health violations in restaurants. If you had no funding for EPA, you might be gasping for air at this point, as we now observe in cities like Naples, Athens and Beijing. Corporations don't particularly have moral qualms if you do choke, but they do respond to attacks on their checkbooks.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    VW's stock is down big today on speculation that the feds will seek a bigger penalty than the $18 billion that's been floated around. The upper limit would be an $80 billion dollar hit but that's unlikely. $45 billion could be doable though.

    Volkswagen Shares Fall on Fears of Bigger U.S. Penalty (WSJ registration link)

    Yahoo says $48 billion is the upper number.

    VW faces billions in fines as U.S. sues for environmental violations
  • carboy21carboy21 Member Posts: 760
    stever said:

    VW's stock is down big today on speculation that the feds will seek a bigger penalty than the $18 billion that's been floated around. The upper limit would be an $80 billion dollar hit but that's unlikely. $45 billion could be doable though.

    Volkswagen Shares Fall on Fears of Bigger U.S. Penalty (WSJ registration link)

    Yahoo says $48 billion is the upper number.

    VW faces billions in fines as U.S. sues for environmental violations

    If I was the head honcho of VW , I would walk out of the USA market lock, stock and the barrel.
    There is no way for VW to recover the $48 billion fines from its car sales in the USA. They are not Toyota with a massive stake in the USA market :smile:
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    Maybe they could sell the Chattanooga factory to Tesla.

    I'm going to be surprised if the ultimate fine with the feds approaches the earlier estimate of $18 billion. The outfit that really should be fined is Takata but they'll be banko before they have to pay up. Right not they've just been hit with a $70 million dollar fine.

    Takata Emails Show Brash Exchanges About Data Tampering (NY Times)
  • berriberri Member Posts: 10,165
    Carboy - one fly in the ointment to VW dumping the US market - Audi
  • carboy21carboy21 Member Posts: 760
    berri said:

    Carboy - one fly in the ointment to VW dumping the US market - Audi

    Feds can't do anything to Audi, unless they want all out trade war with Germany.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited January 2016
    VW owns Audi (99.55%) and the feds included Audi (and Porsche) in the lawsuit for violating the Clean Air Act. (CBS). The 3.0l diesels are the Audis at issue.

    Be hard for Germany to slap trade sanctions on Ford or GM and not shoot themselves in the foot. There's about 100,000 Ford/GM employees in the EU, including those building Opels or working at Ford of Europe HQ in Cologne.
  • carboy21carboy21 Member Posts: 760
    edited January 2016
    stever said:

    VW owns Audi (99.55%) and the feds included Audi (and Porsche) in the lawsuit for violating the Clean Air Act. (CBS). The 3.0l diesels are the Audis at issue.

    Be hard for Germany to slap trade sanctions on Ford or GM and not shoot themselves in the foot. There's about 100,000 Ford/GM employees in the EU, including those building Opels or working at Ford of Europe HQ in Cologne.

    Logically, VW is not going to pay even a single billion $$ in fines. This lawsuit is just for public consumption.
    Maybe a few million in fines and a modification to TDIs.
    Lufthansa is the one biggest customer of Boeing 747s and significant number of 777s . All those orders are worth Billions more then any fines VW will ever pay to USA since VW is one third owned by the German Government of lower saxony and one third owned by the labor unions.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited January 2016
    Place your bets. I'm in for $5 to $10 billion.

    Lufthansa flies a lot of Airbuses. ;)

  • carboy21carboy21 Member Posts: 760
    edited January 2016
    stever said:

    Place your bets.

    Lufthansa flies a lot of Airbuses. ;)

    I forgot to tell you that VW is Germany's largest employer. No one in Germany is going to let it rollover into bankruptcy with these ridiculous fines from the modern day eco-[non-permissible content removed] like EPA :smile:

    If VW pays any fines over a single $ billion, I will treat you to dinner at a restaurant of your choice :smile:
    Dinner for you and missus and send me the tab :smile:
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    B)
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    carboy21 said:

    stever said:

    VW's stock is down big today on speculation that the feds will seek a bigger penalty than the $18 billion that's been floated around. The upper limit would be an $80 billion dollar hit but that's unlikely. $45 billion could be doable though.

    Volkswagen Shares Fall on Fears of Bigger U.S. Penalty (WSJ registration link)

    Yahoo says $48 billion is the upper number.

    VW faces billions in fines as U.S. sues for environmental violations

    If I was the head honcho of VW , I would walk out of the USA market lock, stock and the barrel.
    There is no way for VW to recover the $48 billion fines from its car sales in the USA. They are not Toyota with a massive stake in the USA market :smile:
    VW will be fined the same amount whether it remains in the US or pulls out, so it may as well remain in the world's #2 auto market. The damage is a sunk cost. The cost to VW's reputation, and the opportunity cost of foregone future sales if it abandon's the US market suggests to me that paying the fine and moving on is VW's best strategy.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    carboy21 said:

    stever said:

    Place your bets.

    Lufthansa flies a lot of Airbuses. ;)

    I forgot to tell you that VW is Germany's largest employer. No one in Germany is going to let it rollover into bankruptcy with these ridiculous fines from the modern day eco-[non-permissible content removed] like EPA :smile:

    If VW pays any fines over a single $ billion, I will treat you to dinner at a restaurant of your choice :smile:
    Dinner for you and missus and send me the tab :smile:
    That's a bet nobody should refuse.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,097
    It'll be at least a few BN - that's how "justice" works here. Takata and GM get a slap on the wrist for their sins, FIRE industry actually gets rewarded for ruining the well being of countless people, but VW exposed made some feds look stupid, watch out - huge egos in the unfireable world. A certain useless career public sector academic with the UN will no doubt still be delighted.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    I agree. They'll settle on some amount that the government boa constrictor can digest and that the VW sacrificial herd can sacrifice.
  • texasestexases Member Posts: 10,685
    Toyota paid $1.2 B for not telling folks to secure their floormats. I hope VW pays a LOT more for blatant plotting and violation of known laws with clearly specified penalties.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    stever said:

    Place your bets. I'm in for $5 to $10 billion.

    Lufthansa flies a lot of Airbuses. ;)

    I say they settle for about $1 billion. Anymore than that and they can tie it up in court for decades. You can buy a lot of high powered tax attorneys for a billion dollars. Think about Warren Buffett fighting in court with the IRS since about 2002 over $2 billion in taxes the IRS says they owe. Could go on another 10 years. For $5 billion you can hire over 1000 tax attorneys for 20 years and write it all off. And the EPA would have to spend that much on attorneys as well. How do you think GM got off from killing 125+ people for only $900 million? VW did not kill anyone and it is debatable if the additional NOx is even measurable.
  • berriberri Member Posts: 10,165
    Toyota paid and moved on quite successfully, so really it's in VW interest to do the same I think. Besides Germany saves billions and billions with the US picking up a lot of their country's military defense. You don't see many German ships or aircraft patrolling the Hormuz around Iran so the oil can flow to Asia and Europe.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Yeah, I'm thinkin' maybe 5 billion--10 billion tops. Enough to wound but not enough to kill.
  • berriberri Member Posts: 10,165
    Well, Obama needs Merkel on the Iran nuclear deal and sanctions, and to counter Putin, so I'd bet $1B or less ($2B tops).
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    There's definitely going to be some back room deals on this one. The EPA has to "look good", a certain % of VW diesel owners will require vengeance, and the Queen of Europe needs to be placated, so yeah....it's time to make political sausage.
  • carboy21carboy21 Member Posts: 760
    edited January 2016

    Yeah, I'm thinkin' maybe 5 billion--10 billion tops. Enough to wound but not enough to kill.

    berri said:

    Well, Obama needs Merkel on the Iran nuclear deal and sanctions, and to counter Putin, so I'd bet $1B or less ($2B tops).

    Extortion and re -distribution of wealth via the USA court system does not extend to international business. Toyota paid $1.2 billion in fines because it makes few times more then that in profits in USA.

    VW is nowhere making profits on that scale in the USA. So all this talk of multi billions in fines are just a pipe dream. They will cut their losses and walk away or Merkel will call Obama and tell him she will break sanctions against Russia, Iran and North Korea and kick out GM and Ford out of Germany :smile:

    LOL
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    texases said:

    Toyota paid $1.2 B for not telling folks to secure their floormats. I hope VW pays a LOT more for blatant plotting and violation of known laws with clearly specified penalties.

    Toyota got off real cheap. They killed a lot of people including a California Highway Patrolman and his entire family. Even after that their floor mat hooks were crap. Don't hold your breath. We will die of old age before the US gets more than a $billion out of VW. And knowing how this government operates it will probably cost them $2billion to get that much.
  • carboy21carboy21 Member Posts: 760
    Some of the esteemed posters here are incredibly naive when it comes to geopolitics and international business and how both are intertwined .
    Forget the neo-[non-permissible content removed] EPA and the VW , it will be Obama and Angela Merkel who will decide the final outcome .
  • texasestexases Member Posts: 10,685
    edited January 2016
    Of course they will. And I bet it's more than 1B. 5 would be my guess, including all cash costs. I bet part of the settlement is a reduced fine for every car 'corrected', encouraged by cash payments to owners.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,097
    edited January 2016
    Merkel won't do anything. Germany has plenty of greenie weenies to complain to her. It's naive to think otherwise, or that Germany will somehow oppose sanction of Stalputin and DPRK, as it is to think the world will boycott US goods over this. But it will be a minimal settlement, perhaps a few BN. Egos were hurt and someone was lied to, that's more important than the actual damage. Maybe a little less with the good point brought up, relating to profit.

    I also suspect the individual payments to owners will be minimal, high triple digits (if not just a certificate for discounted accessories etc) - although the claims of feeling sad about environmental damage will shoot through the roof, gotta chase that ambulance.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    although the claims of feeling sad about environmental damage will shoot through the roof, gotta chase that ambulance.

    I suspect most of those claims will get tossed out of court. Who of us driving a VW has the coin to fight VW attorneys. No one has been physically damaged by the VW diesels. Least of which the owner driver. He may have spewed NOx on Stever, giving him the notion of suing. :@
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited January 2016
    It's my wife that has the asthma. Some of us don't laugh off clean air and water concerns.
  • carboy21carboy21 Member Posts: 760
    Bandying around massive figures like $48 -$80 billion in fines from VW is simply a wet dream of the ambulance chasing trial Attornies.
    Try collecting those fines. It will take years and "billions" of dollars in "lawyers" fees :)
    VW hardly makes any profits in the USA and it can sell more VW and Audi cars to Russia /Iran/China and the Middle East then in he USA.
    The motorheads on Edmunds have no clue how International Business is just another side of the coin to International Geopolitics.
  • texasestexases Member Posts: 10,685
    We bow to your genius
  • carboy21carboy21 Member Posts: 760
    texases said:

    We bow to your genius

    Compliment graciously accepted :smile:
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    stever said:

    It's my wife that has the asthma. Some of us don't laugh off clean air and water concerns.

    Not sure the dusty desert is such a great place for asthma? My son has had less issues with his in Cottage Grove Oregon. Clean dust free air and great water. Ask Scott.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Try collecting those fines. It will take years and "billions" of dollars in "lawyers" fees :)

    My sister was injured in Walmart when a shelf fell on her. 5 inch gash on her arm. Attorney convinced her it was worth a lot of money. She fought the case for 2 years and in the end got just what WM offered her when it happened $5k and doctor bills.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited January 2016
    gagrice said:

    Not sure the dusty desert is such a great place for asthma? My son has had less issues with his in Cottage Grove Oregon. Clean dust free air and great water. Ask Scott.

    The is the wettest #$%#$% desert you've ever seen. Bet it dumped an inch the last couple of days. I like Salem but my wife vetoed the Pacific NW, at least Bend to the west. She worked a summer camp in coastal Washington one summer in college and the damp got her. Kind of moldy.

    The real trick is to move every ~5 years or so and not give the local organisms time to figure out how to best attack your body. All those people who moved to Arizona for their health had their asthma come back after living there a while.

    Kind of begs the question anyway - where's someone going to move who isn't especially bothered by dust but diesel fumes are her asthma trigger?
  • carboy21carboy21 Member Posts: 760
    edited January 2016
    Kind of begs the question anyway - where's someone going to move who isn't especially bothered by dust but diesel fumes are her asthma trigger?

    Desert air is actually a very clean air. It is dry and free of pollution . As long as you don't mind the heat and dust.
    Why do you think they park all those airliners in the desert when they don't need them.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    The EPA would make really bad [non-permissible content removed]. They don't even execute people.

    The automakers were forced into compliance to build cleaner automobiles, and for this I am eternally grateful---as should be the automakers themselves. It forced them to build a far better product. Too bad VW had to cheat. I guess they just weren't good enough to play fair with Toyota and GM.

    carboy21 said:

    Some of the esteemed posters here are incredibly naive when it comes to geopolitics and international business and how both are intertwined .
    Forget the neo-[non-permissible content removed] EPA and the VW , it will be Obama and Angela Merkel who will decide the final outcome .

  • carboy21carboy21 Member Posts: 760
    edited January 2016
    TDI engines were a threat to the more exorbitantly priced Urea injection diesels of the competitors.
  • carboy21carboy21 Member Posts: 760

    The EPA would make really bad [non-permissible content removed]. They don't even execute people.

    The automakers were forced into compliance to build cleaner automobiles, and for this I am eternally grateful---as should be the automakers themselves. It forced them to build a far better product. Too bad VW had to cheat. I guess they just weren't good enough to play fair with Toyota and GM.



    carboy21 said:

    Some of the esteemed posters here are incredibly naive when it comes to geopolitics and international business and how both are intertwined .
    Forget the neo-[non-permissible content removed] EPA and the VW , it will be Obama and Angela Merkel who will decide the final outcome .

    Toyota and GM have nowhere near as good , reliable, economical and fuel efficient engines as the TDI.
    NOx emissions standards for cars, are just too unreasonable when hundred other commercial and industrial diesels spew worse emissions.These NOX emissions standards were set to prevent VW from conquering the USA diesel car market from the exorbitantly priced BMW and MB diesels.
    TDI are the most economical for the common man and they are threat to the very expensive urea injection diesels of the competitors.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    No argument there but too bad they didn't play by the same rules. I could market a very effective flea killer if I didn't mind killing the dog.
  • carboy21carboy21 Member Posts: 760
    edited January 2016

    No argument there but too bad they didn't play by the same rules. I could market a very effective flea killer if I didn't mind killing the dog.

    There is a logical reason why 50 % of the European cars are diesels. Tax subsidy is just one reason. USA gives tax subsidy to electrics and hybrids and they still haven't got even 5% of the USA market.

    Power + Torque + Mileage + Durablity + Economical = TDI ;

    and that equation is the serious threat to the Toyota, GM , BMW and Mercedes Benz diesels in the USA.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Well perhaps a threat to a very small market that is unlikely to grow (at least historically it's not even as large as it once was). Toyota and Honda seem to have little interest in diesels and most automakers are moving toward EV, hybrid and hydrogen.

    Diesel and regular gasoline engines will always share the same destiny, whatever that might be. The American public at least does not see them as separate technologies, just variations on the same technology.
  • carboy21carboy21 Member Posts: 760
    Well perhaps a threat to a very small market that is unlikely to grow (at least historically it's not even as large as it once was). Toyota and Honda seem to have little interest in diesels and most automakers are moving toward EV, hybrid and hydrogen.

    That is exotic variation suitable for only city driving.

    Diesel and regular gasoline engines will always share the same destiny, whatever that might be. The American public at least does not see them as separate technologies, just variations on the same technology.

    Because gas is cheap in USA then anywhere in Europe and TDI are being victimised by unreasonable emissions standards.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    If the standards were unreasonable than nobody would have met them. But some automakers have. Even when diesel fuel was considerably cheaper than gasoline in the U.S., the diesel passenger market never topped 6%.
  • carboy21carboy21 Member Posts: 760
    edited January 2016
    Even when diesel fuel was considerably cheaper than gasoline in the U.S., the diesel passenger market never topped 6%

    Something to do with diesel not being available at "most" gas stations and the high premiums charged for diesel cars by the established manufacturers like Mercedes Benz , BMW and Audi ..
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Whatever---Americans don't like diesel passenger cars. Just the way it is. And now thanks to VW, they will like them even less. You can't put consumers in a headlock and demand that they appreciate your product.
  • MichaellMichaell Moderator Posts: 240,118
    Wasn't there a point when every sedan MB offered in the states was a diesel?

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  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    I don't think so, but I think there was a point where the only passenger car diesel you could buy in the USA was a Mercedes. Interesting question, requires more research. Some American diesel cars were built experimentally in the 1930s and demonstrated some impressive MPG and durability numbers. But nobody was interested in developing them here.
  • carboy21carboy21 Member Posts: 760
    edited January 2016
    MB diesels of the past were the only diesel cars available and only the rich could afford them but they were not interested as they could also afford the gas guzzling Detroit behemoths.
    VW refined the diesel engines into smooth clatter free economical and high mileage cars which posed a threat to the existing expensive diesels and also to the gassers.
    Enter the Eco-[non-permissible content removed] EPA and CARB to wipe out the TDI threat to the gassers and other expensive diesels :open_mouth:
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    You'll never win an argument that uses the word "[non-permissible content removed]". :)
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