The Stock Market and Investing

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  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 58,649
    And in Seattle today it will probably end up being partly sunny with highs in the low 50s. What's winter? :shades:
  • dieselonedieselone Member Posts: 5,729
    And in Seattle today it will probably end up being partly sunny with highs in the low 50s. What's winter? :shades:

    Where can I find a "digitus medius" emoticon;)
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Well... Here's the weather in Malibu....

    Another perfect sunny day today, with a forecast high of 74 degrees.

    The kids have been riding their bikes and skateboards, playing at the ballpark, and swimming and having fun at the beach.

    TM
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    edited January 2011
    Ended up with 16" of snow., 61" for the season now after a winter with over 80" last year. NYC added another 19". This one also had lightning and thunder but winds were only 20-30mph as compared to 50mph in the December blizzard.
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    For your information, Portland, ME has only had 40 inches so far this winter. You live in snow heaven the past couple winters :D .
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    edited January 2011
    Charlie, I have no long-term concerns about Amazon. It's a good stock to own for the long run. If the price gets beaten up enough, just consider buying more and continue to hold it. What's not to like?

    Does anyone here have any feeling one way or the other about the Earnings Report for AMZN to be released after the market closes today? My thinking is that if it sells off after the report (I think it will be bullish), I am going to buy some more tomorrow morning.
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    Here's a photo after last night. We had everything last night. Initially some heavy sleet with thunder and then 10 minutes later a raging blizzard with loud thunder.

    http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=315ihzb&s=7
  • dieselonedieselone Member Posts: 5,729
    Yikes, that's a lot of snow.
  • circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    My new Ariens Professional cut through 15" like butter.

    It's like a a good investment in a company. Like yours. You know what you have. Do not invest in anything you do not know about.

    I love Winter. Makes one appreciate the heat! :)

    Regards,
    OW
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited January 2011
    I love Winter. Makes one appreciate the heat!

    LOL.... Hmmm. I see your point... BUT... I am not a big fan of winter.

    Speaking for myself here... I love terrific comfortable weather. Makes me appreciate terrific comfortable weather.

    I might be in the minority, but I don't need to get sick so that I can appreciate being healthy.

    Rather... I love good health. Makes one appreciate being healthy.

    ;)

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    That looks like almost 2 feet on your lawn between the old snow on the ground and the new snow. Impressive!!
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 58,649
    I drove home from work with my sunroof open today.... :shades:
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Well, the after hours market hated the AMZN quarterly report. After closing at about $184.5 today, it was trading down in the $167 level on the after hour trading. The CNBC talking heads sounded almost joyful talking about how crappy the report was and that the stock is definitely now headed south. I guess I will see what tomorrow morning brings. I don't have a huge amount invested in AMZN, but I hate losing in the markets.
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    edited January 2011
    We had about 6-8" of cement before the storm so you're right on the money. In my backyard I have 3'+ in some spots and the snow has totally obliterated the waterfall on my pool. You'd never know it or the pool was there. Already a lot of talk about another 12"+ storm mid next week and a never ending pattern of this into March ala 95/96 here. That's the winter NYC had 75" of snow and I had about 100" here, including an icing on the cake 10" storm on April 10th. Any thoughts on this pattern continuing unabated?

    BTW - I have never bought Amazon and everytime I had the notion to do so it fell. I'm just not a buyer of retailers and always thought Amazon was overpriced, often badly. But as Tag has always noted it's also about perception and you can make a lot of money playing perception right. But to me Amazon is far from the rock that Apple is.
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    edited January 2011
    I'm mainly a mutual funds invstor and buy selective stocks. I always love to find long-term holds for a few that I think will weather any storm. Apple and Citi is where I am right now. I'll usually buy a few riskier stocks that I think have a lot of upside and I try to focus on things I know the best. I especially do that in bad markets. Last year it was Sirius simply on the logic that the auto industry would bounce back and carry the sat radio business with it. I also bought Ford and Tag helped me a lot on that one. Today I grabbed Nielsen (NLSN) out of the gate because it's my industry and I think the stock will run to 30-35+ pretty easily. The industry is booming right now and in the end I think Nielsen weathers the Set-top box better than anyone thinks. No matter what anyone thinks of the Net, TV is never going away and is right now bigger than ever. In the end IMO the Net advertising (and it's step child - mobile display advertising) will ultimately be about a transaction and TV will always be about brand building to a laid back audience.
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    edited January 2011
    I bought a 32" Simplicity pro this past summer and got it delivered just after Thanksgiving. I had a 16 year old 24" Ariens that was working perfectly and gave it to a close friend who is very greatful. Ariens are great. Beckers in Colts Neck (if you know the store it may be the last great hardware store in America) sold me on Simplicity and it's a techno tour de force that can make square turns in 2 feet of snow among other things. After last years huge snows I decided I needed a bigger machine. Ironically I bought the Ariens on January 5th 1996, the day before the great blizzard of 96 and that very snowy season.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Charlie,
    You aren't going to lose ANYTHING on Amazon... unless you decide to sell it at a loss.
    Heck, I've seen this before with Amazon, and I wish I had bought more the last time it did this.
    This stock is incredible, IMO, and I love it. I am thinking of buying more at the open... just like I did with Apple, when it tanked after Steve Jobs reported his he was taking a medical leave.
    Those guys selling Amazon are idiots... and their loss is going to be my gain.

    Here... read this...

    Amazon Sellers Making a Huge Mistake


    :)

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Any thoughts on this pattern continuing unabated?

    My thought is the following: "On and and on it goes, when it stops no one knows". The pattern is locked in for a long time. There is strong and persistent ridging aloft over the western part of the Continent with deep troughing aloft with its axis in the vicinity of the Great Lakes. This pattern is conducive to huge snow storms for the Northeast megalopolis area. Yes, your next big snow potential is for about Wednesday to early Thursday of next week. It is too early to say for sure depending on the exact track, but the way things have been going, be prepared for another foot from about northern NJ to Boston.

    All indications point to a very cold and snowy February for you. This has NOT been a typical strong La Nina type winter in the U.S.
  • dieselonedieselone Member Posts: 5,729
    I might be in the minority, but I don't need to get sick so that I can appreciate being healthy.

    I'm with you. This "I love all 4 seasons" is certainly not me. Around here we can get all 4 seasons in one day.

    Fintail- Rub it in. I don't think I've seen the sun in 3 weeks.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    I have purchased more Amazon and Ford this morning. If they get further hammered, I will buy more.

    These are great companies.

    TM
  • 2001gs4302001gs430 Member Posts: 767
    I am with you on Ford.
  • dieselonedieselone Member Posts: 5,729
    I had a 10% trailing stop on my Ford shares. Wasn't even paying attention today (my bad) now I have cash to reinvest, at least the MM didn't stop me out causing me a loss. Maybe I'll get back in if it drops some more.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited January 2011
    The more I watch today's news, the more I am actually considering getting out of the market for a while. This has little to do with Ford. The market is reacting to GDP report, events in Egypt, and more.

    Very tricky. I'll keep you posted.

    TM
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Events here have yet to erupt. It may be soon.

    image
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    The more I watch today's news, the more I am actually considering getting out of the market for a while. This has little to do with Ford. The market is reacting to GDP report, events in Egypt, and more.

    This too shall pass my son :) . I am sticking with all my stocks. In fact, I bought 50 more shares of AAPL on my SEP IRA account on the break this morning.
  • dieselonedieselone Member Posts: 5,729
    I'm out for now. Sold my other positions. The news along with my schedule being hectic over the next several weeks. I will not have time to adequately monitor and absorb the news. So I'll take a breather for a while.

    Granted I'm still in with retirement and college funds.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited January 2011
    First chance I've had to get back here. Just want to mention that I sold all equities right after my earlier post. I never like political interference... and I have made terrific gains in the market up to this point... so, I am comfortable to take this opportunity to come up for air. :)

    Not sure my next move... but really not worried about it.

    TM
  • dieselonedieselone Member Posts: 5,729
    Tag- That's pretty much my position as well.
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    You may be making the the smart move here. However, I have decided that this Egyptian problem will ease by sometime next week. I still feel very confident that this will be another good year for stocks. The economy is definitely improving. This outside interference will not mean much in the long run.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    I agree with you that the economy is on the mend, and I have been very bullish, as you know very well. But the market has been going up for a long time now.

    I don't mind being a spectator until I have a better idea as to the depth of the issues in the Middle East. If/when it blows over, I'm back in the market. But if it is a powder keg that's prone to escalate, then I will wait until I believe it is no longer a threat to our market.

    I never like these types of wildcards.

    TM
  • circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    The Simplicity sounds great and yes, Beckers is the last of the great HW stores around our parts, anyway.

    I got my Ariens on snowblowersdirect.com! Delivered within 2 weeks but some assembly required. It cut through this two-bit 15" like AAPL cut from the 70's to the 300's!! It's the professional series and has the 15.5-torque engine. They don't rate them at B&S in HP's anymore.
    Doesn't it feel like we live in Siberia?

    Regards,
    OW
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    Nuissancec snow today and tomorrow, Let's see if we get nailed mid next week. I d'ont know how the parking lots can handle another foot of snow if that comes to pass. As it is I'm getting tired of peering so far forward on just about every turn thanks to these huge piles.

    Rough market today. I thought we were due for a down day but this was greater than I expected.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 58,649
    Actually, the socio-economic spectrum in this part of the world may indeed eventually resemble the issues in Egypt. A large mass of unemployed and poorly educated people, a blindingly corrupt and brutal government, and a small class of robber barons reaping virtually all of the rewards. Recipe for instability and resentment.

    There's no optimum solution there - if Mubarak stays in power, the injustice continues and the tension rises. If he is done away with, Islamic lunatics will capitalize on it and ruin yet another plot of land.

    The events there will impact the more emotional and irrational economic indicators, although unless it becomes a regional contagion with legitimate revolutions, should not be a gigantic impact.
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    Excellent points and of course we'll get the oil over-reaction.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 58,649
    The most emotional and irrational trading venues - oil, gold, and the greenback. They will all see change from the recent Egyptian drama. the dollar gained just a little over the Euro yesterday when things started getting heated...don't know if I get it, but the Euro still seems way overvalued, oil as well given the present economic picture.
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    edited January 2011
    Well Len and OW, things have certainly changed the past couple days with this next storm. The surface low pressure is taking a more westerly and northerly track. Therefore, a lot of warm air will be pumped north ahead of it. Your precipitation may start out as snow, but it will quickly go to rain Wednesday to Thursday. The heavy snow in terms of the Northeast is concerned will be much further north (central through northern New England) with this system.

    As you may have guessed, since the low pressure is taking a more westerly track, parts of the Midwest will get buried with snow and blizzard conditions. Right now the cities that stand in line to get 1-2 feet of snow include, St. Louis to Kirksville, MO, to Quincy, IL, Chicago, Burlington, IA, the Quad Cities, South Bend, IN, etc. The area by central & southern IN, far southern IL, and much of OH will likely change to rain. This is going to be a severe blizzard for the above mentioned cities with 25-50 mph winds, near zero visibility at times, and very cold temperatures.

    Here in Des Moines, we will be on the western edge of the heavy snow and we will likely end up with 5-8 inches with lots of blowing and drifting. Sub-zero cold will follow the storm. A slight additional shift further west for the track and Des Moines will get buried. The heavy snow will occur Tuesday to early Wednesday.
  • houdini1houdini1 Member Posts: 8,356
    How about Kansas City? Maybe we are far enough west to miss most of this one?

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Your precipitation may start out as snow, but it will quickly go to rain Wednesday to Thursday.


    Wow... adding more snow and then rain on top of all the snow that's already on the ground could result in mounds of slush and freezing ice... a very ugly and dangerous mess.

    It sounds absolutely horrible.

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    With each run of the various forecast models, the system is nudging further west and north. At this point, it looks to me like Kansas City will get 8-12 inches of snow with big drifts. The Des Moines area now looks to get about 8-10 inches with blizzard conditions. Due to the fact that the low pressure system is nudging further north and west on its track, a place like St. Louis should start with some heavy snow, go to rain or a mixture of junk and then back to some heavy snow. At this point, the areas that stand to get more than one foot with huge drifts should run from northern MO, through southern and eastern IA, into northern IL, southeast WI, far northern IN, and southern lower MI.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    As you all know, I got out of the market last Friday morning. I did so because I strongly suspected the combination of current events could have an immediate and significant negative impact on the market.

    There are numerous significant factors, all happening around the same time.

    I am very interested in what you all predict or expect regarding the market's performance tomorrow (Monday), and the week ahead.

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    In reality NJ, New York City, and southern New England will get very little snow before it goes to all rain with temperatures in the 40s. Thus, this scenario is nowhere near as nasty as if they were to get another foot of snow. Even though temperatures will cool to below freezing later in the week, the streets and highways will just dry out. It will not be icy.
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    I am getting the impression that the Egyptian crisis seems to be improving ever so slightly as Mubarak is making major concessions. Thus, I have a feeling that the stock market will stabilize tomorrow.
  • houdini1houdini1 Member Posts: 8,356
    The talk about passing a law to allow states to declare bankruptcy prompted me to sell off a chunk of my bond holdings last week. My plan was to invest the proceeds into a few stocks I have had my eye on, including QLIK.

    Then the Egypt thing hit, so now I am sitting on a pile of cash. I will just continue to sit on it until things settle down. I am actually hoping for a good buying opportunity this week.

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Very nice. Could turn out to be brilliant. Be careful.

    TM
  • 2001gs4302001gs430 Member Posts: 767
    I am suspecting this was an excuse to take profit by people. I am staying put. I will be watching for buying opportunities.
  • 2001gs4302001gs430 Member Posts: 767
    Nice situation you have there. There is one thing about QLIK that is puzzling to me; If you looked at the option chain, it stopped in August 2011. I've got to find out why that is :confuse: :confuse: Otherwise, the products are still as good as ever.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    I am suspecting this was an excuse to take profit by people. I am staying put. I will be watching for buying opportunities.

    Well, the market needed a breather... but, IMO, this situation is more than an excuse. I think we would have seen a negative market impact at ANY time with the market.

    This really is a legitimate and significant development. I tend to disagree with Charlie that we will see market stability as soon as tomorrow. We'll see.

    In the meantime, I think we should be ready to strategically snap up bargains, after the dust settles. Let's hope we are successful.

    TM
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited January 2011
    There is one thing about QLIK that is puzzling to me; If you looked at the option chain, it stopped in August 2011. I've got to find out why that is

    Yes, but can you find out?

    And, what's the realistic sales saturation point before product updates and service is all that's left?... unless there are any new products in the pipeline. ??

    TM
  • circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    Can you estimate when this SNOW pattern will end? You're good at this as well as the market so please give us some Peace!!!

    Regards,
    OW
  • houdini1houdini1 Member Posts: 8,356
    Thanks for your reply. Guess we better hunker down ! You are our official weather forecaster so keep us posted. :)

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

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