The Stock Market and Investing

cyclone4 · March 2011

Wow! We had no idea that you fixed up your son with the HS250h. What a lucky kid! I think fintail is correct, however. The HS200h has not sold very well for Lexus.

I don't know if my wife will agree to buy the CT200h for her next car. Something tells me she won't. She is use to a larger, more luxurious car.

marsha7 · March 2011

At some point, trees will not grow to the sky, so what goes up must come down...I think that especially applies to oil...at $147/barrel, a few years ago, there was a point where the world will not buy it at $10/gallon, except for the barest necessities...in this country, if folks don't drive to Disney World, Florida will go bankrupt in 3 months, esp if no one flies to Miami for the cruises and no one goes to SeaWorld...so, IMO, oil has a top price, I just don't know what it is, but I would bet somewhere between $125-150 per barrel...

Of course, if that Commie Obama would just allow drilling, we could bring gas down to a buck a gallon and have enough for 100 years, while we develop alternative sources...the oil is here in the USA, they just won;t let us get at it, esp the environmental wackos worried about snail darters...

If its a matter of national security, they could drill underneath the Statute of Liberty or in the middle of Yellowstone and it would not matter...

It's the old story...don't tell me what's going to happen...tell me WHEN...

ljflx · March 2011

That's why I leased it. It's a solid safe car and at $399 it fit the budget well. My son is not all that into cars like the rest of us. He's sports crazed though.

I do love that CT200h but I'm probably too used to large luxury now.

BTW - It took until this past Sunday to finally melt off the last of the solid snowpack in my backyard. The front had melted off about a week earlier. Even now I still have a few idle patches around and we never had any new snow here in February. About 60" for the year and it all fell in 30 days. But this snow went thru 5 days in the mid 60's and at least 3 heavy warm rainstorms. I never saw snow with staying power to withstand that but this stuff looked like a glacier. Now my property is totally saturated and in need of dry sunny weather.

tagman · March 2011

I do love that CT200h but I'm probably to used to large luxury now.

For goodnes sakes, I was driving a freakin Vanden Plas as my daily driver... so talk about ditching large luxury for a CT... I've certainly proved it can be done.

But, there's nothing wrong with the big yacht... absolutely nothing.

I just finally couldn't stand subsidizing the oil companies any more. The CT is no Jaguar Vanden Plas, nor an S-Class, but I'm really enjoying it. Up to near 37mpg now, and you know how I drive, so that's damned good gas mileage!... and the CT and I are getting a fair share of curious stares and thumbs up from passers by.

TM

edit: I probably need to thank Charlie again real soon, for telling me about the CT...

houdini1 · March 2011

I don't think the HS200h looks that bad at all. It should make your son a great car.

Glad you finally thawed out. Rain and snow mix here today, we had around 40 inches of snow this winter, quite a bit for eastern Kansas. And very COLD.

ljflx · March 2011

Houdini,

It's a wonderful car and everyone that sees it loves the styling, particularly in that smoky granite color. It's actually quite nice to have a unique car and my son is thrilled with the gas milage. Told me the average since the start is 36mpg but he's gotten as high as 40mpg. The initial tankful of gas got him the lowest mileage. It's amazing how quiet the hybrid is.

circlew · March 2011

Now's the time to sow some seed...watch how good the lawn looks this year.

Regards,
OW

ljflx · March 2011

OW,

I use agritech and they do a great job.

I'll tell you whenever I mentioned to anyone recently that I still had solid snowcover they looked at me like I was crazy or lived in another state. This area of Colts Neck has incredible snow retention because it's hilly and wooded and cold air gets trapped. Usually warm heavy rains are the great equalizer but this year that was lacking for a long time and at the end the snow was waterlogged from some of that very cold rain we got. I turn onto my street from a lot of surrounding brown lawns and you'd think I enterred into a ski area. All of a suddenm there was still a lot of snow around. It's always been like that but this year the differenmtial to nearby areas was the greatest ever and lasted longer than ever. Plus we got absolutely annihilated here in the December blizzard. There were bands of super heavy snow in that storm and this was one of them. Even worse I thought was Red Bank and down in Brick where my mother lives.

ljflx · March 2011

Take a look at the speculation in oil. Expand to 5 years and the amount of large spec bets today is double what was there when oil hit $147.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.CLLRG:IND

circlew · March 2011

I was out by my Mom's in Smithtown, LI on Saturday and the piles of snow are still there. The last snow melted off her deck just before I left for the day. The Island retains a lower temp from the Atlantic breezes and they also got record snow out there in December/January.

Regards,
OW

ljflx · March 2011

We have family in St James so we go out there several times a year as well. Ocean climate out there in spring so I much prefer our area. I've left here in May in 80-85 temps and got into 55-60 degree chilly air out there. I doubt they got those 65-70 warm days we had the last few weeks.

ljflx · March 2011

Every now and then we make it into the WSJ or NY Times. SQAD inc is my business that is quoted with the ad rates in the link below.

http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424052748703559604576174983272665032-- - - lMyQjAxMTAxMDAwOTEwNDkyWj.html

Sandman6472 · March 2011

So many folks in this country don't want to drill for any oil due to the BP fiasco, plain & simple. Living in South Florida, we especially don't want to drill anywhere near our pristine beaches. I think if the majority of folks supported it, Mr. President would be on it also...quickly. But y'all can't have it both ways, so the problems.

Also, all the doom & gloom you rich guys claimed would happen when Mr. President came into office, I just don't see it. If anything, the market's going up & will hit 14,000 in the near future as some have already said in this forum. I just have a real problem with people calling "our" president "commie"...seems disrespectful & childish at the same time. Being a "middle class blue collar worker" I try to be respectful of other people. Had hoped that would be the same approach most Americans held...maybe not!
The Sandman :sick: :shades:

cyclone4 · March 2011

Very nice Sandman!! I greatly appreciate your response. I wanted SO badly to respond to Marsha, but people here already know my views and we would have gotten into a long political argument that would have gotten us nowhere. When I saw Marsha's post I honestly thought I was listening to Rush Limbaugh or someone like Sarah Palin. I greatly respect the opinions of many on this forum, but a few (like Marsha) go over the edge. No matter what, they blame Obama for everything that goes wrong or for that matter when something goes right, they find a way to also discredit him.

Please, I DON"T want this to turn into a long drawn out discussion, but I have to say I was appalled by Marsha's post. I think it speaks volumes that even those here that do not support our President did not respond to her.

cyclone4 · March 2011

Congratulations Len! Awesome free advertising for your company.

tagman · March 2011

Got a Southern California office?

TM

houdini1 · March 2011

I just have a real problem with people calling "our" president "commie"...seems disrespectful & childish at the same time.

Did you have that same respect for President George Bush and VP Dick Cheney when they were "our" President and VP?

2001gs430 · March 2011

I don't get it. You've posted that they have so much oil that they don't know where to store them. On the other hand, you have this long speculation going on. Something does not add up for me. Do these people not know about the inventory?

ljflx · March 2011

Cushing is just about out of space after adding a lot of capacity to store more oil. Fundamentals are off. The US is down over 5% in usage. The whole bet is supply interruptions and of course China. They have dropped India from the usage talk now too. It used to be China and India offsetting anything in the US. But while we read and hear about pressure on supplies the truth is worldwide demand is lower than it was a few years ago, gas demand in the US will probably never get back to a few years ago, the Saudis have increased their production capacity and have the greatest spare capacity they ever have and of course inventories in China and hewre are thru the roof. Bottom line is the leverage and thin trading in this market makes it one of the easiest on earth to manipulate, yet it's one of the most needed and fundamenta resources on earth.

tagman · March 2011

Bottom line is the leverage and thin trading in this market makes it one of the easiest on earth to manipulate, yet it's one of the most needed and fundamenta resources on earth.

I'm going to re-word that... and see if it also makes sense...

Bottom line is that it's one of the most needed and fundamental resources on earth, which through leverage and thin trading in this market, makes it one of the most obvious targets of manipulation on earth.

TM

2001gs430 · March 2011

Since this is done via thin trading, isn't there someone with enough resources to step in and perform a reversal manipulation. If done right that party stand to make tons of money.

tagman · March 2011

Gentlemen:

We've got a real good thing going here on this forum. There's no doubt that politics definitely plays a role in the economy of investing, and investment decisions... but few things can stir up emotions as much as political discussions.

Let's PLEASE take the high road. We owe it to ourselves.

The world and its politicians, as well as the markets, to varying degrees, interactively influence our wealth and our lifestyles. During our lives we can lose our wealth, our health, our friends and loved ones

But, no matter what others and the world may take from us... let's not let anyone or anything take away our own good character. In the end, it's the only thing we've got that matters.

TM

dieselone · March 2011

I agree 100%.

tagman · March 2011

That's one of the points regarding Wells Fargo's market sector manipulation earlier this week.

They will buy back all those stocks that they caused to be hammered, and make tons of money.

TM

edit: I finally had no choice but to dump JDSU yesterday... about half way down to it's low for the day. Real shame what is happening to some great stocks.

gagrice · March 2011

Since this is done via thin trading, isn't there someone with enough resources to step in and perform a reversal manipulation. If done right that party stand to make tons of money.

I think you can trace Soros' steps during the 2008 oil run-up. He stirred the market to new highs then shorted oil. One article I read put his profit during that year at over $2 billion. Supposedly Congress was going to address the situation. Not sure they did any thing of value.

tagman · March 2011

Hunt Brothers and silver... always an interesting and amazing market manipulation story.
TM

gagrice · March 2011

I would say silver at the current $35 is under valued. If you look at historical prices for silver and gold it is more like 15 to 1, gold to silver. I would say that silver has a lot of room to grow. And if the worst case scenario comes about and the dollar becomes just another World currency. Precious metals will be a safe haven.

That said, manipulators like the Hunts, Wells Fargo and Soros are despicable and should be prosecuted.

marsha7 · March 2011

"Please, I DON"T want this to turn into a long drawn out discussion, but I have to say I was appalled by Marsha's post. I think it speaks volumes that even those here that do not support our President did not respond to her."

I just can't please everybody, can I???... :shades:

gagrice · March 2011

I just can't please everybody, can I???

It is quite possible that your perspective as a bankruptcy attorney gives a better insight into how big of a mess this country is in. Driving around in the lap of luxury, living the dream, makes it difficult to see the devastation lousy legislation over the last 30+ years has caused.

anthonyp · March 2011

Hi Tag

So well put..

I wanted to respond to your Wells observation......If you remember long ago I pointed out how manipulative the different houses are...The purpose is to generate commissions, and believe me there are numerous ways they make money other than the commission a normal account would show....

The controls are readably available , such as margin requirements, and stricter enforcement.....Remember my example of the day trading leverage, that was offered---or made available--without my asking for it?---

You have such a fine feel for the market, I think you`l always be ahead, although they will clip you once in a while...Tony

tagman · March 2011

Thank you Tony.

I suppose it's the nature of the beast... human nature injected into the market... and the market sure reflects it, sometimes profoundly.

Times like these are tough waters to feel like a nice swim.

Talked to my broker today... he is surprised I didn't bail out earlier in the week when I had told him I was considering it. Maybe I just didn't follow my gut instincts this time... hard to say... I've got sooo much stuff on the platter lately, I just can't really focus on the market like I usually prefer to do. I am definitely getting that nasty clipping you mentioned.

TM

anthonyp · March 2011

Well Tag you `gotta`give to give yourself a break..I mean really mkt up a hundred early in the week and down a hundred , just volatile as the `mis` information gets generated...Easy to drop your guard....On the up days I have already pared back a good twenty percent, as I just think the market has come a long way...Risk Reward...

I do think things are robust down on the `street`and that is because the Fed has done some good---finally--- and I certainly don`t have a clue what will happen when they stop this second phase....easy to stand back a bit....but overall we`r going up....Tony

kyfdx · March 2011

I would say silver at the current $35 is under valued

I hope not.... I just pawned off Grandma's sterling silver flatware!

gagrice · March 2011

Don't feel like the lone ranger, I sold off a bunch of silver coins at $16 and thought it had peaked. Fortunately I have not sold any gold.

ljflx · March 2011

Bottom line is that it's one of the most needed and fundamental resources on earth, which through leverage and thin trading in this market, makes it one of the most obvious targets of manipulation on earth.

That's a great revision and fully accepted by me.

Re AAPL - fundamental need and logic go out the window. They create irresitible exhuberance and this is how they do it in the face of reason:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/10/technology/personaltech/10pogue.html?scp=1&sq=- emotional%20appeal%20of%20IPAD2&st=Search

Reader comments:

http://community.nytimes.com/comments/www.nytimes.com/2011/03/10/technology/pers- - - onaltech/10pogue.html?scp=2&sq=emotiona%20appeal%20of%20IPAD2&st=cse

tagman · March 2011

Len...

Interesting article... (gotta love the NYT... even in California.)

The good news and bad news for Apple is that the Android-powered devices are just getting out of the gate. Good news because it gives Apple the head start. Bad news because the RATE at which Android is becoming accepted is FASTER than anything else. So, if we were to project ahead, we could come to the logical conclusion that Android devices will ultimately overtake Apple devices. But, the wildcard continues to be Apple's brilliant innovation... that seems to be ahead of everyone else... and that leaves the others playing catch-up. So, regardless of the speed associated with that catch-up... it's still catch-up, and that is very good for Apple.

Because of Android's faster pace, yet slower out-of-the-gate presence... I don't know if this is a come-from-behind Secretariat-type of situation. It's hard to know with certainty. I suspect that Android-powered devices and Apple devices will co-exist for quite a while... and, in addition to Apple and Android we will have to wait and see if the third player Microsoft can come up with something truly appealing with Phone 7 beyond the "X-Box Live" capability (which shouldn't be underestimated, as X-Box Live is a huge hit on its console).

More specifically, regarding the iPad/iPad2... the recent upgrade in processor capability has now opened the door for the iPad2 to run more intensive applications like Garage Band, for example. This now makes the iPad a more legitimate device than it was previously.

I am still convinced that an ultimate device of the future for Apple would be the marriage of the MacBook Air to the iPad. It would solve that weird magnetic cover sheet option and the seperated kepboard option by having both touchscreen and keyboard built together on the same device, allowing the device to open and close with an integrated rotating hinged keyboard/cover. Simple, elegant, powerful... and incredibly productive. I know that Steve had tried to persuade us that the latest MacBook Air is already a marriage of the MacBook Pro and the iPad, but until the MacBook Air gets an actual touchscreen... it will never offer the attraction of the iPad, which is primarily it's large touchscreen and elegant interface.

Now... if they would please put an anti-glare screen on that iPad... it's ridiculous... what's the holdup?

TM

Sandman6472 · March 2011

As a matter of fact, yes I did because he was the president. Being an independent, I still respect the office & the office holder no matter what! I was brought up with manners sir, and use the terms "Mr." & "Mrs." because it's the correct way to address another person...we've also brought up our children the same way!

The Sandman :sick: :shades:

gagrice · March 2011

For all you Apple fans. What is with the riff between Adobe and Apple? I cannot imagine the Internet without Flash. So many sites use that protocol. Can you use Acrobat on a Apple device?

This was just posted today. Can Apple afford to destroy relationships with large software providers?

"At the WorldWide Developer Conference, Apple announced that they were not going to do a 64-bit version of Carbon. They introduced this other framework called Cocoa," said Adobe's Russell Williams.

"They yanked the carpet out from under the entire industry at that conference," Adobe's John Penn II added.

According to Adobe, the announcement was the first indication that the company got that it would have to undertake a "monstrous re-write" of Photoshop. "Carbon and Cocoa are about as different as Mac and Windows," Williams said.

Some viewers commenting on the video sided with Adobe, with 102 likes to just 4 dislikes. One viewer commented: "Seriously, it's sad how blind Mac fanboys are."

That last comment has been my view of Apple since the late 1970s. I was into Amiga and Atari until I succumbed to Dos and Windows in the early 1990s. I know Apple has had a good second run under Steve Jobs. I think they have peaked and may be headed downhill again like they did after firing Jobs.

All that said I really like the MacBook Air 13 inch. Not enough to spend that kind of money on it. No interest in the iPad fad.

cyclone4 · March 2011

Len, I loved reading the article and also the comments. I just might decide to give my iPad to my daughter and purchase the iPad2. It's all "emotional"

.

ljflx · March 2011

The frickin thing has me looking at it Charlie and I had no thoughts about buying it at all until I read that story.

I did buy my son a Macbook pro the other day. There were long lines at the Apple store today and I think Apple is going to blow us away with earnings when they report. This company remains undervalued to me.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Apple-fans-line-up-to-buy-apf-193384030.html?x=0&s- ec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=

ljflx · March 2011

We've all seen the news and videos. Tremendous devastation and the entire economy there is just about shut down. I'll tell you I'm amazed that there are not 10,000 people dead. There was almost no time between the quake and the tsunami strike for anyone to even flee and that was a strike shift quake with tremendous vertical motion and aftershocks and it created new land and shifted the coast about 8 feet from what I read. The quake was so close to the coast that the efficiency required to warn folks about the tsunami and for them to escape danger had zero error margin. It is times like this that you just hold your breath and say "there but for the grace of God go I".

Let's all pray for those people and lets hope they can control those nuclear reactors. That's now 3 devastating Tsunamis in 7 years. Out of all the videos I saw this sleeper one that I came across shows the startling power of the tsunami.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVtuHnRGvhU&feature=player_embedded

anthonyp · March 2011

`Amen Brother` Whew Tony

ljflx · March 2011

Len, I loved reading the article

Charlie, you're going to love reading this one too:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/12/technology/12faster.html?ref=business

Sandman6472 · March 2011

We all need to say prayers for those poor folks in Japan & the other affected areas. G-d be with them & please stop the devastation!
The Sandman :sick: :shades:

cyclone4 · March 2011

Len, I pray that I am very wrong about this, but your comment that you are amazed that there are not 10,000 people dead from the quake will probably come true after it's all said and done. With as little warning as the people had in the north part of the island had, I can't see how at least 10,000 people did not make it to safety. Many thousands of buildings were carried away like they were toothpicks. Absolutely horrible! :sick:

cyclone4 · March 2011

Ok that settles it. That magical cover by itself has pushed me over the edge. I am definitely going to buy the iPad2 in the next few weeks.

circlew · March 2011

Just got a new iPhone for work. Wonder why I never had it before.

Tag and Charlie have been right all along. Stock should be golden for some time to come considering the new iPad and the service pacts.

Unbelievable!

Regards,
OW

ljflx · March 2011

Len, I pray that I am very wrong about this, but your comment that you are amazed that there are not 10,000 people dead from the quake will probably come true after it's all said and done.

I saw a headline on Fox earlier tonite that a village with 9,500 people is unaccounted for. That tsunami wiped out a lot of villages. I also read in the NY Times that even if folks got out of their homes in time before the tsunami hit, the land area was flat and they likely had no chance to reach higher ground before the tsunami would have overtaken them. I fear the worst here.

ljflx · March 2011

Ok that settles it. That magical cover by itself has pushed me over the edge. I am definitely going to buy the iPad2 in the next few weeks.

That makes two of us. Probably next few days for me. I may even order it online before the night is over.

tagman · March 2011

Ok that settles it. That magical cover by itself has pushed me over the edge. I am definitely going to buy the iPad2 in the next few weeks.

Why not spend just a little more and you can get the 11" MacBook Air? It's got a much better cover than the iPad 2... an actual real-life protective cover that doesn't disconnect and won't get lost somewhere, and it reveals an actual functional keyboard!

What's the advantage of the iPad's goofy little blanket cover?

Don't misunderstand me... I LOVE Apple products! They're downright sexy! But, that funky little blanket cover is a great marketing strategy and I have no doubt that it will get a lot of people to purchase the iPad2. It's a brilliant gimmick, and I am glad to see it because I want my AAPL shares to go up... but that little blanket/comforter truly looks ridiculous. If any other company had introduced it, we would have read a very critical review, probably asking if it came with pillows and sheets.

I agree that the iPad2 is a big improvement over the first generation, but what the heck is holding you back on getting the MacBook Air instead?

Don't forget that Apple has a whole new operating system for the Macs... coming out VERY soon (by early Summer) that you will not want to miss out on. You could end up buying yet again.

My wife and I have been considering joining the kids and switching over to Apple, but we want to wait and see this new operationg system this summer, and at the same time see the new iPhones. I suspect everything will be worth waiting for. I could easily see the possibility of an iMac with the new OS in my office at home, MacBook Pro for the wife, and that ultra-thin and light 11" MacBook Air for me when I want portable productivity or entertainment.

Quite honestly, I can't see the rationale for an iPad in there anywhere. Now, if the iPad had an anti-glare screen and was superior for outdoor viewing, then maybe I could see it, but it doesn't. So... where's the advantage? And please don't tell me it's that little baby doll blanket... LOL. I really want to know what you see as the genuine advantage over the MacBook Air and why you would choose to buy it over the MacBook Air? Especially when considering the new OS coming out very soon.

You know I respect your opinion... (afterall, I bought a Lexus after listening to you... haha) But, I just don't see this as a really smart choice over the MacBook Air. So... what am I missing here? Help me out, so I can go buy an iPAd without feeling like I've been totally manipulated by marketing geniuses to buy something I have no need for whatsoever.

TM

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