What Would It Take for YOU to buy a diesel car?

gagrice · September 2016

Ten years max, China and India will build all the components of EVs and we will assemble with robots. Maybe stamp the big skin pieces.

henryn · September 2016

ruking1 said:

Mr_Shiftright said:
Rare Earth Elements aren't particularly rare. They exist all over the world and most likely even in larger quantities under the sea. China is just a large producer but that doesn't mean they have most of it.
Absolutely the same thing with coal! The USA has HUGE reserves of coal! The USA is exponentially beyond the Saudi Arabia of coal! Yet, we say we have very little. We prohibit its mining, even though we have depended on it for CLEAN energy for generations (135 years) & will continue for the foreseeable future (2015 33% right now) . The difference will be we will let China have the Afghanistan rare earth (EV) mining contracts.

Coal is "CLEAN energy"????? I don't think I will waste my time arguing with anyone who makes that kind of absurd claim.

ruking1 · September 2016

It was tongue in cheek!

The fact of the matter, if you close down 39% provided by coal, the US electrical grid would be in serious trouble! In the time it takes to draw ZERO % from coal, and substitute it with EV, (or whatever) we will still be complaining !

We have short memories! During the WJ Clinton POTUS administration, they chose COAL for China's rapid economic transformation! So we don't have to look too much past Washington DC for the absurdity of which you speak.

stever · September 2016

Missed the smiley.

El Paso Electric sent out a notice last month saying that none of our power came from coal any longer. The idiots invested in a nuke plant over in AZ though even though they don't send any of that power out way. The waste could wind up at WIPP though. More "clean" energy.

stever · September 2016

“In Europe, the production cost of an automatic transmission hybrid system and diesel already have reached parity,” Ogiso told me last week. Reluctantly, this was confirmed by sources inside of Toyota who did not seem to be too happy about giving away a newfound competitive advantage."

At Long Last, Hybrid Gains Cost Advantage Over Diesel, Top Electrification Guru Says (Forbes)

ruking1 · September 2016

stever said:
“In Europe, the production cost of an automatic transmission hybrid system and diesel already have reached parity,” Ogiso told me last week. Reluctantly, this was confirmed by sources inside of Toyota who did not seem to be too happy about giving away a newfound competitive advantage."

At Long Last, Hybrid Gains Cost Advantage Over Diesel, Top Electrification Guru Says (Forbes)

Yup, come back & talk to me when they put it on the Toyota cross over CUV/SUV's, Sequoia, TLC, PU truck lines & post upwards of 30 mpg! While they are at it, why not tractor trailer rigs?

Off your topic, but on diesel topic, I've liked their Aisin 8 speed AT on the VW Torareg TDI !

ruking1 · September 2016

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_States

While this post might be off-topic, I thought that a wiki post of the USA demography might be of interest.

While this a little older, I've read the average age of a Honda Civc purchaser is approximately 44 years old. https://www.cars.com/articles/2008/01/down-economy-mo/

Meet the fogie @ now ...48 years old!? (even this article was at least eight years old)

Moving along...2015...

..."The average new car buyer is now 51.7 years old and earns about $80,000 per year, while the average age of the population is 36.8 years old and the median income is roughly $50,000, Szakaly said..."http://www.autonews.com/article/20150804/RETAIL03/150809938/car-buyers-getting-older-richer-nada-economist-says

I'm thinking that IF the TDI market is 5% of the PVF, (13.74 M), certain oems will continue to service it. Remember if European & world wide PVF's' are 50% or more TDI's preparing TDI's for US markets makes product adaptability sense.

gagrice · September 2016

henryn said:

ruking1 said:

Mr_Shiftright said:
Rare Earth Elements aren't particularly rare. They exist all over the world and most likely even in larger quantities under the sea. China is just a large producer but that doesn't mean they have most of it.
Absolutely the same thing with coal! The USA has HUGE reserves of coal! The USA is exponentially beyond the Saudi Arabia of coal! Yet, we say we have very little. We prohibit its mining, even though we have depended on it for CLEAN energy for generations (135 years) & will continue for the foreseeable future (2015 33% right now) . The difference will be we will let China have the Afghanistan rare earth (EV) mining contracts.
Coal is "CLEAN energy"????? I don't think I will waste my time arguing with anyone who makes that kind of absurd claim.

I don't think it would be profitable to argue the "Clean Coal" subject. However the darling of the Alternative energy crowd, Germany, Is as we type expanding their coal production and generation. They are going to replace those dirty Nukes with Lignite Coal. So we are expanding our high priced W&S and our competitors are expanding cheap coal energy. Remember Obama signed something with China give them a pass on coal, not that they would care what our government says.

Germany has a ‘coal conundrum’. How do we explain the recent boom in lignite coal? Is Germany building new brown coal fired power plants to replace nuclear energy?

http://coalrush.net/germany/

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2014/02/140211-germany-plans-to-raze-towns-for-brown-coal/

https://cleantechnica.com/2016/02/13/germany-the-coal-exit/

stever · September 2016

Haven't keep up, but there's a clean coal demonstration project somewhere in Mississippi that sounds every bit as bad as the Solyndra boondoogle.

"Americans might find it hard to believe that roughly every other car bought by Europeans is powered by a diesel engine, but the fallout from the Volkswagen dieselgate scandal and worries about health threats has started a trend which could see that share slashed to about one in 4 by 2020."

Diesel Sales Stumble In Europe, Undermined By VW Scandal, Health Worries (Forbes)

ruking1 · September 2016

What is also TOTALLY bogus is the fact that CA (people like me) pays $.24 per kWh , super high rates . What does that have to do with anything, one might ask? Right now the price for natural gas (CA mandated switch) is at lowest it's ever beenin decades. We are getting NONE of the nat gas low price advantages! We should be paying far less than $.24 per kWh.

So is there anyone here think the other 49 states & other grid customers will let (free) prices operate ?

gagrice · September 2016

stever said:
Haven't keep up, but there's a clean coal demonstration project somewhere in Mississippi that sounds every bit as bad as the Solyndra boondoogle.

"Americans might find it hard to believe that roughly every other car bought by Europeans is powered by a diesel engine, but the fallout from the Volkswagen dieselgate scandal and worries about health threats has started a trend which could see that share slashed to about one in 4 by 2020."

Diesel Sales Stumble In Europe, Undermined By VW Scandal, Health Worries (Forbes)

A couple comments:

Today coal produces more than 40 percent of the world’s electricity, a foundation of modern life. And that percentage is going up: In the past decade, coal added more to the global energy supply than any other source.

Many energy and climate researchers believe that CCS is vital to avoiding a climate catastrophe. Because it could allow the globe to keep burning its most abundant fuel source while drastically reducing carbon dioxide and soot, it may be more important—though much less publicized—than any renewable-energy technology for decades to come. No less than Steven Chu, the Nobel-winning physicist who was US secretary of energy until last year, has declared CCS essential. “I don’t see how we go forward without it,” he says.

https://www.wired.com/2014/03/clean-coal/

So will the Europeans slash the tax on gas to encourage a switch? So far hybrids cannot compete with diesel except for those that hyper mile. Like was mentioned get back to us when a Hybrid SUV/PU can tow 7000 lbs and get great mileage doing it.

stever · September 2016

I'll see your Nobel and raise you one.

(Forbes) That was 2013 but he's still at it per this China Daily link, not sure what his position is on trying to capture the carbon and pump it into rocks.

gagrice · September 2016

stever said:
I'll see your Nobel and raise you one. (Forbes) That was 2013 but he's still at it per this China Daily link, not sure what his position is on trying to capture the carbon and pump it into rocks.

I have no problem with Natural Gas for cars, trucks, heating, power generation etc etc etc. Noticed the city bus that comes up our way is now a NG model. Isn't there a lot of uproar over producing gas by fracking?? If not for NG power generation, CA would be in deep Doo Doo. No way our expensive Wind and Solar can supply our needs 24/7. I cannot afford any more renewable energy. Notice everything over 433 KWH is 39 cents per KWH. How much would your bill be with my rates? Can you imagine adding an EV? SDG&E is requesting a rate increase to cover costs associated with freeloaders using their own solar.

ruking1 · September 2016

$.2978791 cents per kWh, iF my math is correct?

Yes, the very thing they want to encourage (site energy self sufficiency)! Now they're see as a crime ! Wind & solar also have HUGE NIMBY factors? So for example, IF I wanted to spend $30,000 for a bare bones solar system, not including permits & environmental impact studies, the city would NOT grant the permit! It will also cost thousands to hook up to sell excess electricity to the power company. I'd be trying to get $1,000 per year electricity bill covered. It's pretty easy to see 30 plus years to B/E. The true feelings are there for to see. Then the energy franchisee HIGHLY penalize their remaining customers?!

Another cheating problem ? http://www.wsj.com/articles/lawmakers-probe-tax-incentives-received-by-solar-energy-firms-1473967056

texases · September 2016

CCS sounds good, but it is HUGELY expensive, and takes a lot of additional energy. A coal-fired power plant has to be about 30% bigger just to power all the separation and compression equipment, adding directly to the energy costs.

This says nothing about finding places to inject the enormous volumes of CO2 involved. Not easy.

ruking1 · September 2016

Why no gas/hybrid or EV? I think most know the answers? http://www.autoblog.com/2016/09/15/diesel-powered-ford-f-150-spy-shots/

2018 Ford F-150 TDI ? 440 # ft! 9/10 speed A/T? 3.0 TDI by way of Land /Range Rover!

stevedebi · September 2016

texases said:
From Road & Track:

"In the weeks before Volkswagen's $14.7 billion settlement with the U.S. government over its emissions-cheating diesels was finalized, there was some doubt that the cars would ever be fully fixed. The recall fix has still yet to be approved, but increasingly, it looks like the cars affected will never meet U.S emissions standards.

The California Air Resources Board estimates that VW's fix will reduce emissions in cars equipped with 2.0-liter TDI engines between 80 and 90 percent, according to a Bloomberg report. While this does represent a significant reduction in Nitrogen Oxide emissions, it isn't enough to meet the standards VW originally intended to evade. As part of its settlement, VW will contribute $2.7 billion to fund pollution reduction efforts, and an additional $2 billion towards clean energy programs in an attempt to offset its excess pollution.

Fully fixing the cheating cars would likely involve adding a urea tank to each car affected, which was deemed far too expensive and complex to be done. That's why VW and U.S. regulators agreed on a settlement involving extensive buybacks, a partial fix, and pollution mitigation efforts. Additionally, the EPA wanted to arrive at a solution that prioritized reducing emissions and compensating owners as quickly as possible, rather than waiting for a full fix."

Thanks for that link. Interesting, they are going to reduce it by 80% without adblue? How? They are going to have to do some serious de-tuning of the engine.

ruking1 · September 2016

I've read another article, 2009 Jetta TDI, a more effective catalytic converter. BUT no all encompassing approval yet. So it's all fluid.

stevedebi · September 2016

ruking1 said:
I've read another article, a more effective catalytic converter. BUT no all encompassing approval yet. So it's all fluid.

I suppose for the Passat they will simply increse the Adblue and upgrade the converter?

ruking1 · September 2016

Purely my guess: software upgrade, increased Ad Blue, same catalytic converter.

Interesting diesel gate https://www.yahoo.com/news/one-volkswagen-leave-dieselgate-behind-034038516.html

ruking1 · September 2016

Took the 2009 Jetta TDI to an appointment & return. Not too much hits the radar, except for more of a road car, it does extremely well commuting.

benjaminh · September 2016

http://www.autonews.com/article/20160916/OEM11/160919872/vw-diesel-cheat-probe-widens-in-u-s-to-include-bosch-report-says

"THE VW DIESEL CRISIS »
VW diesel-cheat probe widens in U.S. to include Bosch, report says
Supplier IAV also may be part of investigation, source says
September 16, 2016 @ 1:37 pm
Tom Schoenberg and Alan Katz
Bloomberg

....Among the questions the Justice Department is asking in the criminal probe, one of them said, is whether automakers in addition to VW used Bosch software to skirt environmental standards. Bosch, which is also under U.S. civil probe and German inquiry, is cooperating in investigations...."

Much more at the link.

gagrice · September 2016

This is the reason I don't see any new diesel SUVs for sale yet. Looks like they have the auto makers gun shy. Should make for a big back log of consumers when and if they ever release the new models.

Daimler’s Mercedes-Benz has no 2017 diesel models listed among the more than 50 entries on the EPA’s fueleconomy.gov website. For 2016, the 70-plus models included the diesel-powered GL350 Bluetec SUV and E250 Bluetec sedan. The brand hasn’t announced a date for any diesel models to go on sale.

fintail · September 2016

I've read rumors on some MB sites that E220d might still come for 2018 or 2019. As the engine is apparently a new unit for the US, it will need to pass a no doubt stricter federalization process than ever seen before.

gagrice · September 2016

There is only a handful of the GLE 300d models left in the US. I may be better off waiting till they come off lease and make a deal. Though I did not find the MB dealers here very interested in dealing. I just want a contingency plan if VW makes me an offer I cannot refuse on buyback. Also the 2017 Jeep Grand Cherokee has some nice upgrades. They say the diesel is still in the mix.

Michaell · September 2016

gagrice said:
There is only a handful of the GLE 300d models left in the US. I may be better off waiting till they come off lease and make a deal. Though I did not find the MB dealers here very interested in dealing. I just want a contingency plan if VW makes me an offer I cannot refuse on buyback. Also the 2017 Jeep Grand Cherokee has some nice upgrades. They say the diesel is still in the mix.

Gary, I just looked at the Chrysler lease docs and the JGC diesel is still listed for 2017.

ruking1 · September 2016

Yeah, if you look at the car type, diesel, diesel center, on Edmunds.com, it shows 7 diesels 2017.

stever · September 2016

Hm, I come up with 13. (link). A couple of the Jags look like dupes though.

gagrice · September 2016

stever said:
Hm, I come up with 13.( link). A couple of the Jags look like dupes though.

When you pull up details they are all the 3.6L gas engine. Most are 2016 models. My local dealer has 18 JGC 2017 models. All are gassers. I am not getting too excited till VW puts out their plan for our Touareg TDI. I suppose if someone offered me $45k cash for it today, I would take it. There are dealers offering Touareg TDIs for sale. I see 485 listed from $45k - $66K. Maybe the EPA did not stop them from selling the Touareg TDI.

ruking1 · September 2016

My second scan shows 13 2017 diesels.

stever · September 2016

Either way, it's not a lot of choice.

gagrice · September 2016

ruking1 said:
My second scan shows 13 2017 diesels.

You must be looking at some other source than I am. I cannot find a one 2017 diesel GC on Edmunds or Jeep or Cars.com

stever · September 2016

Ah, you mean there's none in stock anywhere? That could be. I just found the list and we have pricing but I didn't look for actual inventory on the lots.

ruking1 · September 2016

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-big-oil-shouldn-t-180000202.html

Another math challenged article?

Here's an easy 19 year hypothetical USA problem. The PVF is (2014) 274.8 M. Sales are 17 M cars per yr. How many EVs or percentage of EVs per year need/s to be sold to reach 50% of 2014 PVF?

Harder issue? average vehicle fleet age 11.5 years old. You know what they say of reality.

fintail · September 2016

Out on the road for a bit today, not bad:

stever · September 2016

Diesel particulates, gas fumes, lithium batteries catching fire. VW needs to come up with something different. Like CNG. (Forbes)

ruking1 · September 2016

Unless VW sells CNG vehicles in US markets, it totally NA !

The realities to the US market TDI owners are nowhere near the hype! 2009 VW Jetta is essentially getting ($12,975 total) KBB @ 09/2015, plus $ 5,100 emissions penalty ($12,975), plus (a tbd) other penalties composed of two parts, for buy back. This is less than fair, even if you do not still need a commute car: despite lower cpmd: depreciation.

IF one still needs a commute car, it make sense to keep the affected TDI. Owners get the emissions penalty ($5,100). The emissions penalty ($5,100) @ $ 2.67, 40mpg buys 76,404 commute miles. When one gets the TBD "FIXED"approval, it will carry a 120,000 miles emissions warranty. CARB bi-annual pass inspections will be honored, all things being equal.

At this writing, articles indicate only a minority (40%) have signed up for the buyback. I do not want to get penalized because VW & EPA/CARB, et al. are involved in an enormous snit. Basically, both were involved in a (VW) lied and (EPA/CARB et al) SWORE to it scenario! The other issue is EPA/CARB want to take advantage of boths stupid moves to kill diesels !

So for example, I do not want to lose the taxes ($1,000) already paid but with amortization left on the old TDI. Then, buying a new car, I'd have to pay new taxes, prematurely. ($2,500 = approximately 10% to get a new vehicle= minus - $3,500) Depending on how you figure it, the tax savings alone will pay approximately 37,453 to 52,435 miles of commuting, 40mpg @ 2.67 per gal. ULSD.

ruking1 · September 2016

From:

Unless VW sells CNG vehicles in US markets, it totally NA

To: Unless VW sells its CNG vehicles in US markets, the article is totally N/A !

texases · September 2016

stever said:
Diesel particulates, gas fumes, lithium batteries catching fire. VW needs to come up with something different. Like CNG. (Forbes)

This is a great example of how difficult it is to come up with something practical to replace gasoline and diesel fuels. And if VW has problems with CNG, imagine the explosions that'll happen with hydrogen (fuel cells), which is much harder to contain and much more explosive (it ignites over a much wider range of concentration than natural gas).

ruking1 · September 2016

Indeed ! BUT fuels like CNG/EV are good for fleets with known daily expenditures with some known reserve quantity above. In addition, IF those particular vehicles are (known) "gross polluters" in current unmitigated form, they are also much less in quantity for converting, than converting whole segments of the passenger vehicle fleet. The fact that they do NOT convert them (diesels) and give them almost unmitigated emissions, shows that they really are not the bogey man/woman/trans they are made out to be. The Eco con logics are bankrupt & are total shams!

texases · September 2016

Back to the VW diesel disaster:

"Audi head of development will be suspended this coming week as part of the investigation into an emissions scandal, Bild am Sonntag reported citing sources.

Investigations by Jones Day have shown that Stefan Knirsch, an Audi board member, knew about the use of cheat software in 3.0 liter diesel engines and gave a false promise under oath, the paper said on Sunday.

Knirsch has already been asked to clear his desk, it said.

Audi has admitted that its 3.0 liter V6 diesel engine was fitted with emissions-control software, deemed as illegal in the United States where the scandal has engulfed VW."

ruking1 · September 2016

Really @ this point the "diesel gate's" worst is over. The only news tidbit will be how many lower level engineers remain to be/will be prosecuted for the public's "# of flesh" satiety. From all the indications that I've read, it's SO old news! I mean really: One whole year of blood hound relentless pursuit & they got Liang, one (lower level) VW engineer? The fact that Liang plead guilty & was offered zero immunity, indicates the actions were so compartmentalized, or fire walled, not much higher above.

As a comparison, one has got to be TOTALLY naïve, if one believes that the current GM CEO Barra was totally oblivious to the past GM brouhaha/s ! The (smart) actions were to put the brouhaha/s in bankruptcy & put legal misers in charge of paying squat for the folks injured or killed either before, during or after the cover ups!? So would one also believe that unions did NOT know about the brouhaha/s!? Come on guys, I mean really: do you know who was prosecuted for all of this ? One guy? ...named JACK s---?

As most folks know, the United States government made BOAT LOADS of money, bailing this one auto company OUT (too BIG to fail). Large portions of ownership, plus board seats were given to the big unions, as part of the bail out. So as you can see even the United States government makes use of its own bankruptcy laws!? (to make BOAT LOADS of monies)

So same for VW, the yeoman's work will be to save as much of the $18 billion set aside for the brouhaha/s!

stever · September 2016

Agree about Barra, but now that Belgium is involved, I'm not so sure that VW is going to skate in the EU much longer without some big compensation to owners.

texases · September 2016

"The fact that VW engineer Liang plead guilty & was not offered immunity indicates the actions were so compartmentalized, or fire walled, not much higher above. "

?? The news story shows the opposite to be true.

ruking1 · September 2016

I would say: one can believe what one wants!

Oh yes! The National Inquirer reports about those seeing aliens too!?

Here is one piece of PRICELESS GM news!!

The union bosses striking the... union bosses!http://www.wsj.com/articles/union-head-says-canadian-workers-will-strike-gm-if-monday-contract-deadline-missed-1474053935

Getting back to diesels....

So for example, if I let VW do the "fix", VW takes the unknown $ fix hit. We get 120,000 miles emissions warranty. We will still use it for (15,000 miles) commute & total of 18,000 miles per year.

But, VW SAVES the 09/2015 KBB $ hit. Sure, I should get the $5,100 emissions penalty, BUT it is nowhere close to the $25,000 (each) set aside for the "diesel gate" brouhaha. I've also received the $1,300 IRS tax credit, $1,000 & roadside assist GW package.

So projected, that is $7,400 +. I also project @ 290,000 miles, I should also get back a minimum of $5,000. Given (20,000 new) $7,600 loss/ 290,000 miles cpmd: depreciation will be app .0262 cents.

Now I certainly would've liked $37,815. back, i.e. VW pays me $17,815 to drive the car for 145,000 miles......

IF i did the math correctly, that is a 83.9 % discount. ( buy back @ 12975 would be 65.7% discount.)

stever · September 2016

texases said:
"The fact that VW engineer Liang plead guilty & was not offered immunity indicates the actions were so compartmentalized, or fire walled, not much higher above. "

?? The news story shows the opposite to be true.

Thanks @texases, didn't know there was a plea deal in place. Not surprised but missed it.

"The Detroit News provides further information: “In a plea agreement with the government signed August 31 by Liang, 62, of Newbury Park, California, prosecutors say in exchange for his agreement to cooperate with the government, it agrees not to use new information about Liang’s own criminal conduct against him at sentencing."

He pled guilty to conspiracy meaning he's going to name names. (cleantechnica.com)

ruking1 · September 2016

Right! Then, a known felons' testimony against unknown numbers of no record of non felony folks..... Now that is like the Baltimore 's DA trying those cops of first degree murder, of that transported dead guy. ( Baltimore fessed up pre trial $$'s) All found not guilty.

In VW's case, they already fessed to $ 18 B (/475,000 = $37,815 per unit) set aside for US market diesel- gate. So I might ask: why am I getting only $6,100 (the 83.9 % discount) , if these guys are guilty as sin ? :@

stever · September 2016

Most of whom are in Germany, which will make indictment and extradition "interesting".

It's pretty clear that there wasn't just one engineer behind the cheat. There may have been more than one company involved too. We'll be another decade sorting it all out.

ruking1 · September 2016

Not that it applies, ( the software is NOT illegal in the EU) but the EU has had more than a year also & they've got squat! ?

stever · September 2016

I think drivers in the EU are a bit upset after seeing what VW has agreed to pay owners here.

"The EU Commission has decided that Volkswagen “violated consumer protection laws in most of the EU member states,” Commissioner Věra Jourová said." (Forbes)

What Would It Take for YOU to buy a diesel car?

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