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Chronic Car Buyers Anonymous (Archived)
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“I swear it’s not mine!”
Apparently, that’s a great price. Yikes.
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S
When Tesla's colossal Texas plant ramps up to full production I wonder if something similar might eventually happen. As far as I've been able to tell, Tesla hasn't said what the production capacity of the Austin plant will be, but it will probably surprise on the upside.
Telsa has already said that Fremont will have the theoretical capacity to build 600,000 cars a year in 2022, which if true would already pass Toyota's largest factory in the world, which has a capacity of 550,000.
https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-motor-manufacturing-kentucky-inc-tmmk-fact-sheet/
And Tesla's factory in Shanghai ramped up in September to make more than 56,000 vehicles, which multiplied by 12 would give an annual production of more than 670,000. But production apparently is still increasing, and I saw one video speculate that in 2022 Shanghai might make close to 800,000 vehicles.
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-giga-shanghai-increases-production-by-26-in-september-selling-over-56k-vehicles
So if Fremont can produce 600k, and Shanghai almost 800k, then Tesla's Austin factory, which seems to be somewhat larger and more advanced than those factories, might have an eventual capacity of maybe 900,000? I realize that's guesswork and speculation, but that's what I'm wondering.
Musk has talked about how ramping up production speed is a challenging process that takes years. But with the experience Tesla has it seems to go faster with each new factory. Fremont took almost ten years to get to 400k, but Shanghai is seemingly going to do it in its second year of production, and might get close 800k in its third year.
Again just speculating here, but Tesla Texas in 2022 might be able to make somewhere around 300,000 vehicles, and in 2023 maybe somewhere around 600k, and in 2024 maybe c. 900k?
By then I wonder if prices for Teslas might begin to fall a bit? But if the feds put back in the 7500 tax credit for Tesla maybe not.
But whatever the exact numbers, it will seemingly be a very big increase in the supply of Teslas in just a few years.
Tesla's US market share in 2021 is at about 2%.
By the end of 2024, just three years from now, Tesla's US market share might be getting close to 10%
Tesla seems to sell just fine without tax credits.
2020 Acura RDX tech SH-AWD, 2023 Maverick hybrid Lariat luxury package.
We are going to hit a saturation point in the market for EV’s, PHEV’s etc without more charging options.
Not looking to stir a political pot about who pays for them, but more EV’s = more charging options needed.
2024 Jeep Grand Cherokee L Limited Velvet Red over Wicker Beige
2024 Audi Q5 Premium Plus Daytona Gray over Beige
2017 BMW X1 Jet Black over Mocha
2021 VW Arteon SEL 4-motion, 2018 VW Passat SE w/tech, 2016 Audi Q5 Premium Plus w/tech
Agreed, especially with some of the newer entries to the segment like the Solterra and its Toyota twin, which appear to come in with a slightly lower usable range in order to hit their price points. Even a 250-300 mile day trip in one of those will put you in need of a brief visit to a DC fast charger.
That’s not political, that’s a fact.
jmonroe
'18 Legacy Limited with 3.6R (Mrs. j's)
Really? I never heard of anything like that.
jmonroe
'18 Legacy Limited with 3.6R (Mrs. j's)
Since right now Tesla's lowest-priced Model 3 costs about 48k with home charger installation, with prices going up to 140k for a Model S Plaid in red, with the optional wheels and optional interior, I'd say those that have the most to lose include Mercedes, Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Acura, Lincoln, Volvo, Genesis, etc.
Although Ford, Honda, Toyota, the rest of GM beyond Cadillac, etc. will also lose some sales, my guess is that most people shopping for a new vehicle in price from c. 21k (base Elantra, base Maverick) to c. 33k (RAV4 XLE AWD, Accord EXL) aren't going to cross-shop Tesla—unless that promised Tesla for c. 35k or less actually shows up.
But also likely to be hit starting a year or so from now, when the Cybertruck goes into production, are trucks from Ford, GM, Dodge, etc. Already more than 1.2 million reservations have been made for Tesla's Cybertuck, which will range in price from about 45k to about 75k. The Cybertruck orders have a total value of about $80 billion dollars.
https://electrek.co/2021/11/23/tesla-cybertruck-reservation-backlog-80-billion-value-tally/
If those people actually wait and then buy most of those Cybertrucks, even though it'll take years to make all of them, that's $80 billion that obviously won't be going into the pockets of Ford, GM, etc. Seems like Ford and the rest of the truck makers will be fine for the next several years, but it's going to take a bite out of their apple.
I built an I4 M50 to my specs and the bottom line was $73,075 before the tax credit. Reasonable but not super appealing to me at present.
Mine: 1995 318ti Club Sport-2020 C43-1996 Speed Triple Challenge Cup Replica
Wife's: 2021 Sahara 4xe
Son's: 2018 330i xDrive
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2015 Subaru Outback 3.6R / 2024 Kia Sportage Hybrid SX Prestige
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S
2019 Kia Soul+, 2015 Mustang GT, 2013 Ford F-150, 2000 Chrysler Sebring convertible
2001 Prelude Type SH, 2022 Highlander XLE AWD, 2025 Camry SE AWD
2019 Kia Soul+, 2015 Mustang GT, 2013 Ford F-150, 2000 Chrysler Sebring convertible
I have a reservation for a CT and a R1S. If the webbernet sleuthing is correct, my CT reservation is in the 9000 range of the 1.2 million. I figure I will buy it and either keep it, or flip it if it is just too big. Seems like there will be a waitlist to flip to for awhile.
25 NX 450h+ / 24 Sienna Plat AWD / 23 Civic Type-R / 21 Boxster GTS 4.0 / 03 Montero Ltd
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S
The F-150 has been the #1 selling vehicle in the US for forty straight years. FORTY!!! That's a bit mind-boggling, if you consider all the changes that the world, country, and auto industry have gone through in that time. Ronald Regan was just taking the US presidency when Ford began its reign; the iron curtain still had nearly a decade before it would melt; China's economy was barely a blip, and "Made in China" was a punchline; Chrysler was preparing to introduce a new vehicle type that would peak in sales in 2000 at about 1.3M (more than 7% of all vehicles sold that year); list goes on....
Given the amount of investment Ford puts into that product to help it continue its dominance, I have little doubt that it will continue to rank #1 for some time to come.
However, without the introduction of the Cybertruck and the R1T, I don't think there would be as much innovative momentum in pickups as there currently is. I see the addition of more competition in that market as nothing but a positive for all of us.
Question for Benz people (does @fintail hang out here?), is there any way I can use my VIN and/or order number to track our Sprinter build? When googling, I only come upon a tool only for those buying in Germany.
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S
2001 Prelude Type SH, 2022 Highlander XLE AWD, 2025 Camry SE AWD
If a salesman asked, “what would it take for me to put you in it today”, what would you say?
jmonroe
'18 Legacy Limited with 3.6R (Mrs. j's)
Great if that’s what you need it to do, but only if price reflects miles. It used to!
2020 Acura RDX tech SH-AWD, 2023 Maverick hybrid Lariat luxury package.
So, all electric? Not yet for this guy. Although for some reason the Porsche Taycan has become my latest irrational desire.
'21 Dark Blue/Black Audi A7 PHEV (mine); '22 White/Beige BMW X3 (hers); '20 Estoril Blue/Oyster BMW M240xi 'Vert (Ours, read: hers in 'vert weather; mine during Nor'easters...)
If I could get it for under $55k I might relent, but at $73k there are about 5-6 cars I’d rather have.
Mine: 1995 318ti Club Sport-2020 C43-1996 Speed Triple Challenge Cup Replica
Wife's: 2021 Sahara 4xe
Son's: 2018 330i xDrive
WOW, aren’t you the dreamer! If you could do that you’d have to change your name to @roadburnerMasterGrinder.
jmonroe
'18 Legacy Limited with 3.6R (Mrs. j's)
2020 Acura RDX tech SH-AWD, 2023 Maverick hybrid Lariat luxury package.
leasing, well, ouch. With $2k DAS, 3/30 was IIRC around $690/month. I quickly lost interest.
2020 Acura RDX tech SH-AWD, 2023 Maverick hybrid Lariat luxury package.
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Did you get a good deal? Be sure to come back and let us know! Post a pic of your new purchase or lease!
MODERATOR
2015 Subaru Outback 3.6R / 2024 Kia Sportage Hybrid SX Prestige
2020 Acura RDX tech SH-AWD, 2023 Maverick hybrid Lariat luxury package.
Same exterior color, though.
Side view looks like an old TL
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S
Edmunds Price Checker
Edmunds Lease Calculator
Did you get a good deal? Be sure to come back and let us know! Post a pic of your new purchase or lease!
MODERATOR
2015 Subaru Outback 3.6R / 2024 Kia Sportage Hybrid SX Prestige
I like that lighter silver gray better than the old mans charcoal gray pearl I have on my ‘15 Genny. Ask her if she’s willing to trade straight up.
jmonroe
'18 Legacy Limited with 3.6R (Mrs. j's)
2024 Jeep Grand Cherokee L Limited Velvet Red over Wicker Beige
2024 Audi Q5 Premium Plus Daytona Gray over Beige
2017 BMW X1 Jet Black over Mocha
If I could get it for under $55k I might relent, but at $73k there are about 5-6 cars I’d rather have.
Thats pretty close to what my number would be as well.
2024 Jeep Grand Cherokee L Limited Velvet Red over Wicker Beige
2024 Audi Q5 Premium Plus Daytona Gray over Beige
2017 BMW X1 Jet Black over Mocha
2019 Kia Soul+, 2015 Mustang GT, 2013 Ford F-150, 2000 Chrysler Sebring convertible
How many grinders do we have in here anyway?
jmonroe
'18 Legacy Limited with 3.6R (Mrs. j's)
How many grinders do we have in here anyway?
jmonroe
I think the answer is … everyone
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Did you get a good deal? Be sure to come back and let us know! Post a pic of your new purchase or lease!
MODERATOR
2015 Subaru Outback 3.6R / 2024 Kia Sportage Hybrid SX Prestige
You mean like the sandwich or a meat grinder or a bench grinder…?
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S
I mean like you know what I mean. 😫😫
jmonroe
'18 Legacy Limited with 3.6R (Mrs. j's)
Tonight I took a few minutes at the Jeep dealership to check out and test drive the 2021 Grand Cherokee L. I called, set up and appointment, met with the sales guy. I’m asking him questions about the Altitude model which he proceeds to tell me is the “top of the line.” 2 other sales guys look up and say in unison: “Laredo, Altitude, Limited, Overland.” They had a good laugh. The guy started last week. Came from selling nissans and chevrolets. I asked about the different 4WD systems. The Laredo and Altitude have a very basic AWD system with what seems to be RWD biased with an open center differential. The Limited and Overland have a more sophisticated 4WD system that is always engaged, but has a “normal, snow, sport, & rock/mud” toggle switch. They acknowledged that programs for the Laredo & Altitude are stronger.
I took a brief test drive because traffic getting there was terrible and I had to pick up my 12 year old from hockey practice. Beautifully finished interior, strong V6 engine, excellent feedback from the steering rack. Smooth ride, & it handled well. Sharp looking SUV.
I told the guy I will build an Altitude and a Limited to send him the specs of what I want. He’ll get back to me with a price and check stock. Will also let me know about ordering a vehicle.
2001 Prelude Type SH, 2022 Highlander XLE AWD, 2025 Camry SE AWD