Chronic Car Buyers Anonymous (Archived)

28firefighter

@roadburner said:
When I worked at BMW we had a 3 Series loaner come back with a bullet hole in a door.

“I swear it’s not mine!”

qbrozen

@stickguy said:
more so at the pre-covid price (probably a lot closer to $10k, maybe 12 tops?) something like this would make a lot of sense as a 2nd car that is mostly getting local use, and overall only a few thousand miles a year but still perfectly fine for taking on a few hour trip without thinking twice about it.

still pretty new but overly high miles for the age. Which will average out nicely in about 3 years. still new enough to have the normal "modern" features. Maybe it is still a good deal? I have no clue at this point.

https://www.royalmotorsnj.com/details-2017-hyundai-tucson-eco_awd-used-km8j3ca23hu419036.html

Apparently, that’s a great price. Yikes.

benjaminh

Right now we've got waiting lists for many vehicles, including Teslas. Some of us here remember back to the late 1970s and early to mid-1980s when Hondas often had big dealer mark-ups, and sometimes even waiting lists. In 1982, when Honda opened its first US factory in Ohio, it had an initial capacity to build about 150,000 Accords, and even that couldn't keep up with demand. But by 1986, when the factory more than doubled in size and could make more than 300,000 Accords a year, finally—after ten years of shortages and ADMs—supply caught up with demand, and suddenly prices of Hondas fell and discounts were available. Sometimes reading the LA Times back in 1986 I was impressed at how most Honda dealers had ads discounting Accords significantly below list.

When Tesla's colossal Texas plant ramps up to full production I wonder if something similar might eventually happen. As far as I've been able to tell, Tesla hasn't said what the production capacity of the Austin plant will be, but it will probably surprise on the upside.

Telsa has already said that Fremont will have the theoretical capacity to build 600,000 cars a year in 2022, which if true would already pass Toyota's largest factory in the world, which has a capacity of 550,000.

https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-motor-manufacturing-kentucky-inc-tmmk-fact-sheet/

And Tesla's factory in Shanghai ramped up in September to make more than 56,000 vehicles, which multiplied by 12 would give an annual production of more than 670,000. But production apparently is still increasing, and I saw one video speculate that in 2022 Shanghai might make close to 800,000 vehicles.

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-giga-shanghai-increases-production-by-26-in-september-selling-over-56k-vehicles

So if Fremont can produce 600k, and Shanghai almost 800k, then Tesla's Austin factory, which seems to be somewhat larger and more advanced than those factories, might have an eventual capacity of maybe 900,000? I realize that's guesswork and speculation, but that's what I'm wondering.

Musk has talked about how ramping up production speed is a challenging process that takes years. But with the experience Tesla has it seems to go faster with each new factory. Fremont took almost ten years to get to 400k, but Shanghai is seemingly going to do it in its second year of production, and might get close 800k in its third year.

Again just speculating here, but Tesla Texas in 2022 might be able to make somewhere around 300,000 vehicles, and in 2023 maybe somewhere around 600k, and in 2024 maybe c. 900k?

By then I wonder if prices for Teslas might begin to fall a bit? But if the feds put back in the 7500 tax credit for Tesla maybe not.

But whatever the exact numbers, it will seemingly be a very big increase in the supply of Teslas in just a few years.

Tesla's US market share in 2021 is at about 2%.

By the end of 2024, just three years from now, Tesla's US market share might be getting close to 10%

stickguy

Tesla seems to sell just fine without tax credits.

au1994

stickguy said:

Tesla seems to sell just fine without tax credits.

They do indeed. Ive seen at least 3 with dealer plates in the past week or so.

We are going to hit a saturation point in the market for EV’s, PHEV’s etc without more charging options.

Not looking to stir a political pot about who pays for them, but more EV’s = more charging options needed.

sda

In 1985 a significant other had placed an order for a new Prelude, dark blue, auto, a/c. There was a waiting list months long. After waiting months, the dealer kept telling her hers would be in 'next week'. This happened multiple times. Somehow she found out her car had come in more than once but was sold to someone else. Not happy. Her dad went into the dealership and rattled the ceiling tiles. This was at a large, reputable Honda dealer who has since been absorbed by another dealership group, but not the big 'H' here in town. Who knew...within days she had her new Prelude.

corvette

Agreed, especially with some of the newer entries to the segment like the Solterra and its Toyota twin, which appear to come in with a slightly lower usable range in order to hit their price points. Even a 250-300 mile day trip in one of those will put you in need of a brief visit to a DC fast charger.

jmonroe1

@au1994 said:
They do indeed. Ive seen at least 3 with dealer plates in the past week or so.

We are going to hit a saturation point in the market for EV’s, PHEV’s etc without more charging options.

Not looking to stir a political pot about who pays for them, but more EV’s = more charging options needed.

That’s not political, that’s a fact.

jmonroe

jmonroe1

@sda said:
In 1985 a significant other had placed an order for a new Prelude, dark blue, auto, a/c. There was a waiting list months long. After waiting months, the dealer kept telling her hers would be in 'next week'. This happened multiple times. Somehow she found out her car had come in more than once but was sold to someone else. Not happy. Her dad went into the dealership and rattled the ceiling tiles. This was at a large, reputable Honda dealer who has since been absorbed by another dealership group, but not the big 'H' here in town. Who knew...within days she had her new Prelude.

Really? I never heard of anything like that.

jmonroe

benjaminh

I realize it's still a big if, but if Tesla does go from a 2% market share in the US in 2021 to c. 10% in 2025, who is going to lose that 8% share that Tesla is gaining?

Since right now Tesla's lowest-priced Model 3 costs about 48k with home charger installation, with prices going up to 140k for a Model S Plaid in red, with the optional wheels and optional interior, I'd say those that have the most to lose include Mercedes, Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Acura, Lincoln, Volvo, Genesis, etc.

Although Ford, Honda, Toyota, the rest of GM beyond Cadillac, etc. will also lose some sales, my guess is that most people shopping for a new vehicle in price from c. 21k (base Elantra, base Maverick) to c. 33k (RAV4 XLE AWD, Accord EXL) aren't going to cross-shop Tesla—unless that promised Tesla for c. 35k or less actually shows up.

But also likely to be hit starting a year or so from now, when the Cybertruck goes into production, are trucks from Ford, GM, Dodge, etc. Already more than 1.2 million reservations have been made for Tesla's Cybertuck, which will range in price from about 45k to about 75k. The Cybertruck orders have a total value of about $80 billion dollars.

https://electrek.co/2021/11/23/tesla-cybertruck-reservation-backlog-80-billion-value-tally/

If those people actually wait and then buy most of those Cybertrucks, even though it'll take years to make all of them, that's $80 billion that obviously won't be going into the pockets of Ford, GM, etc. Seems like Ford and the rest of the truck makers will be fine for the next several years, but it's going to take a bite out of their apple.

roadburner

I built an I4 M50 to my specs and the bottom line was $73,075 before the tax credit. Reasonable but not super appealing to me at present.

Michaell

roadburner said:

I built an I4 M50 to my specs and the bottom line was $73,075 before the tax credit. Reasonable but not super appealing to me at present.

I had been eyeing the iX, but when I saw that the base price was north of $70K, I immediately crossed it off my list.

qbrozen

benjaminh said:

I realize it's still a big if, but if Tesla does go from a 2% market share in the US in 2021 to c. 10% in 2025, who is going to lose that 8% share that Tesla is gaining?

Given the pricepoint, my guess is it comes from luxo brands

benjaminh said:

If those people actually wait and then buy most of those Cybertrucks, even though it'll take years to make all of them, that's $80 billion that obviously won't be going into the pockets of Ford, GM, etc. Seems like Ford and the rest of the truck makers will be fine for the next several years, but it's going to take a bite out of their apple.

I don't think many will wait if given the opportunity to buy a different brand with similar or superior capabilities earlier.

oldfarmer50

boomchek said:

Well I heard of dealer markups on some models during inventory shortage but this has to take the cake. Not sure who in their right mind will pay $40k over sticker on a RAV4. Even though we are short on inventory, we've been selling everything at MSRP, with no markups, and without any mandatory accessories or protection packages.

Maybe that’s so when the salesman springs the $5k ADM on all the other cars it doesn’t look so bad.

nyccarguy

I'm preparing for some not so positive news regarding my Wrangler. Got a text from my broker on 11/8 saying that my Hydro Blue 4Xe has landed at the holding lot in Western Mass. Today I got a text saying there are 5 cars that should have been in transit longer than they should be. We shall see what happens

oldfarmer50

stickguy said:

more so at the pre-covid price (probably a lot closer to $10k, maybe 12 tops?) something like this would make a lot of sense as a 2nd car that is mostly getting local use, and overall only a few thousand miles a year but still perfectly fine for taking on a few hour trip without thinking twice about it.

still pretty new but overly high miles for the age. Which will average out nicely in about 3 years. still new enough to have the normal "modern" features. Maybe it is still a good deal? I have no clue at this point.

https://www.royalmotorsnj.com/details-2017-hyundai-tucson-eco_awd-used-km8j3ca23hu419036.html

At around 25k miles per year it may have spent a good deal of it’s time on the highway, so there’s that. No bargain at that price but there aren’t any bargains left out there.

tifighter

qbrozen said:

I don't think many will wait if given the opportunity to buy a different brand with similar or superior capabilities earlier.

Yeah, I definitely wouldn't expect 1.2 million reservations to directly convert into 1.2 million sales. If they convert up to half, it would be amazing. But the truck market in the US is colossal, with full size truck volumes leading the way (sorry Rivian). And the biggest truck market in the US is southern California, where Tesla is already strong (discussed here in the second half of the clip)-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nEiki-LM7Q

I have a reservation for a CT and a R1S. If the webbernet sleuthing is correct, my CT reservation is in the 9000 range of the 1.2 million. I figure I will buy it and either keep it, or flip it if it is just too big. Seems like there will be a waitlist to flip to for awhile.

qbrozen

nyccarguy said:

Today I got a text saying there are 5 cars that should have been in transit longer than they should be.

Say what?

xwesx

There's no doubt about that (truck market is colossal)! When one looks at total vehicle sales in the US for 2021, the top three (by a large margin) are full-size pickups (Ford/Ram/Chevrolet), and five of the top 20 are pickups (the other two being the GMC full-size and Tacoma). Amazing to me is that #s 19 and 20 are both Subaru (Forester and Outback)! (source)

The F-150 has been the #1 selling vehicle in the US for forty straight years. FORTY!!! That's a bit mind-boggling, if you consider all the changes that the world, country, and auto industry have gone through in that time. Ronald Regan was just taking the US presidency when Ford began its reign; the iron curtain still had nearly a decade before it would melt; China's economy was barely a blip, and "Made in China" was a punchline; Chrysler was preparing to introduce a new vehicle type that would peak in sales in 2000 at about 1.3M (more than 7% of all vehicles sold that year); list goes on....

Given the amount of investment Ford puts into that product to help it continue its dominance, I have little doubt that it will continue to rank #1 for some time to come.

However, without the introduction of the Cybertruck and the R1T, I don't think there would be as much innovative momentum in pickups as there currently is. I see the addition of more competition in that market as nothing but a positive for all of us.

xwesx

qbrozen said:

nyccarguy said:

Today I got a text saying there are 5 cars that should have been in transit longer than they should be.

Say what?

Hahah. I thought the same thing, but I couldn't come up with as eloquent a way of asking for clarification.

qbrozen

Question for Benz people (does @fintail hang out here?), is there any way I can use my VIN and/or order number to track our Sprinter build? When googling, I only come upon a tool only for those buying in Germany.

nyccarguy

qbrozen said:

nyccarguy said:

Today I got a text saying there are 5 cars that should have been in transit longer than they should be.

Say what?

He said there is a possibility these 5 cars were somehow damaged during shipping. He said he'll let me know as soon as he hears something.

xwesx

Oh, and did you hear that Ford sold its interest in Rivian? That's not a bad payday!

jmonroe1

@roadburner said:
I built an I4 M50 to my specs and the bottom line was $73,075 before the tax credit. Reasonable but not super appealing to me at present.

If a salesman asked, “what would it take for me to put you in it today”, what would you say?

jmonroe

xwesx

jmonroe1 said:

If a salesman asked, “what would it take for me to put you in it today”, what would you say?

jmonroe

"A rope, a gag, and a couple of strong guys to pick me up. Are you sure I'll fit in that trunk?"

stickguy

oldfarmer50 said:

stickguy said:

more so at the pre-covid price (probably a lot closer to $10k, maybe 12 tops?) something like this would make a lot of sense as a 2nd car that is mostly getting local use, and overall only a few thousand miles a year but still perfectly fine for taking on a few hour trip without thinking twice about it.

still pretty new but overly high miles for the age. Which will average out nicely in about 3 years. still new enough to have the normal "modern" features. Maybe it is still a good deal? I have no clue at this point.

https://www.royalmotorsnj.com/details-2017-hyundai-tucson-eco_awd-used-km8j3ca23hu419036.html

At around 25k miles per year it may have spent a good deal of it’s time on the highway, so there’s that. No bargain at that price but there aren’t any bargains left out there.

Yup. 4/5 years old, probably easier miles, and driving can be better than sitting and just short hops.

Great if that’s what you need it to do, but only if price reflects miles. It used to!

laurasdada

One of the local grocery stores has had an electric charging station for years (gratis!), well before the Tesla boom. Unfortunately, it's been reading, "need to complete configuration" for weeks now. I've called Chargepoint 2x, each time they thanked me and noted that they had received other similar notices. And yet...
So, all electric? Not yet for this guy. Although for some reason the Porsche Taycan has become my latest irrational desire.

fintail

I'm not aware of anything, I'd have imagined only a MB rep would have access, and of course that can be hit and miss. Maybe check the MBWorld or BenzWorld forums, where some real devotees of specific models hang out - if anyone knows, they will.

qbrozen said:

Question for Benz people (does @fintail hang out here?), is there any way I can use my VIN and/or order number to track our Sprinter build? When googling, I only come upon a tool only for those buying in Germany.

roadburner

@jmonroe1 said:

@roadburner said:
I built an I4 M50 to my specs and the bottom line was $73,075 before the tax credit. Reasonable but not super appealing to me at present.

If a salesman asked, “what would it take for me to put you in it today”, what would you say?

jmonroe

If I could get it for under $55k I might relent, but at $73k there are about 5-6 cars I’d rather have.

jmonroe1

@roadburner said:

@jmonroe1 said:

@roadburner said:
I built an I4 M50 to my specs and the bottom line was $73,075 before the tax credit. Reasonable but not super appealing to me at present.

If a salesman asked, “what would it take for me to put you in it today”, what would you say?

jmonroe

If I could get it for under $55k I might relent, but at $73k there are about 5-6 cars I’d rather have.

WOW, aren’t you the dreamer! If you could do that you’d have to change your name to @roadburnerMasterGrinder.

jmonroe

stickguy

laurasdada said:

One of the local grocery stores has had an electric charging station for years (gratis!), well before the Tesla boom. Unfortunately, it's been reading, "need to complete configuration" for weeks now. I've called Chargepoint 2x, each time they thanked me and noted that they had received other similar notices. And yet...
So, all electric? Not yet for this guy. Although for some reason the Porsche Taycan has become my latest irrational desire.

watch the current Flying Wheels youtube series where he documents buying a taycan and taking it cross country in a made for TV style rally. Might cure you of that.

stickguy

talked to Honda dealer on a nice blue Ridgeline RTL HPD they have. will sell for MSRP, plus their normal (since pre-covid) pro pack. About $799 for splash guards, trunk tray, wheel locks, and etching. Sticker is $45,xxx. So OTD, tax and tags, a tick under $49k

leasing, well, ouch. With $2k DAS, 3/30 was IIRC around $690/month. I quickly lost interest.

Michaell

stickguy said:

talked to Honda dealer on a nice blue Ridgeline RTL HPD they have. will sell for MSRP, plus their normal (since pre-covid) pro pack. About $799 for splash guards, trunk tray, wheel locks, and etching. Sticker is $45,xxx. So OTD, tax and tags, a tick under $49k

leasing, well, ouch. With $2k DAS, 3/30 was IIRC around $690/month. I quickly lost interest.

If you're expecting to see 1% lease deals, you'll be out of the market for a long time, my friend.

corvette

My neighbor's new ride... definitely an upgrade from her 1997 model with hubcaps and rust in several places!

stickguy

Camry not bad looking. Nice color. Should be good for her.

xwesx

Snazzy! That's a long step up on the interior from my dad's '92.

Same exterior color, though.

qbrozen

Side view looks like an old TL

Michaell

I have to admit to having a soft spot for the latest generation Camry. I had an SE as a rental a couple of years ago for my son's wedding, and it was pretty nice.

corvette

This is an SE, as well. I don't think it has any options beyond that trim level, though. She wanted leather seats but seems okay with the Softex + cloth inserts.

jmonroe1

@corvette said:
My neighbor's new ride... definitely an upgrade from her 1997 model with hubcaps and rust in several places!

I like that lighter silver gray better than the old mans charcoal gray pearl I have on my ‘15 Genny. Ask her if she’s willing to trade straight up.

jmonroe

au1994

stickguy said:

talked to Honda dealer on a nice blue Ridgeline RTL HPD they have. will sell for MSRP, plus their normal (since pre-covid) pro pack. About $799 for splash guards, trunk tray, wheel locks, and etching. Sticker is $45,xxx. So OTD, tax and tags, a tick under $49k

leasing, well, ouch. With $2k DAS, 3/30 was IIRC around $690/month. I quickly lost interest.

umm, no!

au1994

roadburner said:

@jmonroe1 said:

@roadburner said:

I built an I4 M50 to my specs and the bottom line was $73,075 before the tax credit. Reasonable but not super appealing to me at present.

If a salesman asked, “what would it take for me to put you in it today”, what would you say?

jmonroe

If I could get it for under $55k I might relent, but at $73k there are about 5-6 cars I’d rather have.

Thats pretty close to what my number would be as well.

oldfarmer50

Michaell said:

I have to admit to having a soft spot for the latest generation Camry. I had an SE as a rental a couple of years ago for my son's wedding, and it was pretty nice.

I got to drive my first Avalon yesterday and it was pretty nice.lots of interior room. But why do all Toyotas have road noise coming from the tires?

jmonroe1

@au1994 said:
Thats pretty close to what my number would be as well.

How many grinders do we have in here anyway?

jmonroe

Michaell

jmonroe1 said:

@au1994 said:

Thats pretty close to what my number would be as well.

How many grinders do we have in here anyway?

jmonroe

I think the answer is … everyone

qbrozen

@jmonroe1 said:

How many grinders do we have in here anyway?

jmonroe

You mean like the sandwich or a meat grinder or a bench grinder…?

corvette

oldfarmer50 said:

I got to drive my first Avalon yesterday and it was pretty nice.lots of interior room. But why do all Toyotas have road noise coming from the tires?

Toyota road noise has generally been better than Honda. Tire quality and whether the tires have a wear pattern set in from not being rotated can also play a role. That said, you really shouldn't be noticing that sort of NVH issue in an Avalon, because it's supposed to be Toyota's closest thing to a Lexus.

jmonroe1

@qbrozen said:

@jmonroe1 said:

How many grinders do we have in here anyway?

jmonroe

You mean like the sandwich or a meat grinder or a bench grinder…?

I mean like you know what I mean. 😫😫

jmonroe

nyccarguy

Tonight I took a few minutes at the Jeep dealership to check out and test drive the 2021 Grand Cherokee L. I called, set up and appointment, met with the sales guy. I’m asking him questions about the Altitude model which he proceeds to tell me is the “top of the line.” 2 other sales guys look up and say in unison: “Laredo, Altitude, Limited, Overland.” They had a good laugh. The guy started last week. Came from selling nissans and chevrolets. I asked about the different 4WD systems. The Laredo and Altitude have a very basic AWD system with what seems to be RWD biased with an open center differential. The Limited and Overland have a more sophisticated 4WD system that is always engaged, but has a “normal, snow, sport, & rock/mud” toggle switch. They acknowledged that programs for the Laredo & Altitude are stronger.

I took a brief test drive because traffic getting there was terrible and I had to pick up my 12 year old from hockey practice. Beautifully finished interior, strong V6 engine, excellent feedback from the steering rack. Smooth ride, & it handled well. Sharp looking SUV.

I told the guy I will build an Altitude and a Limited to send him the specs of what I want. He’ll get back to me with a price and check stock. Will also let me know about ordering a vehicle.

xwesx

nyccarguy said:

I told the guy I will build an Altitude and a Limited to send him the specs of what I want. He’ll get back to me with a price and check stock. Will also let me know about ordering a vehicle.

I hear ordering vehicles is all the rage these days....