Chronic Car Buyers Anonymous (Archived)

roadburner

Did more digging on the M4; it has the Individual extended leather option, meaning most every surface is upholstered in leather. It reminds me of my E24 M6 which had the Highline interior.

Michaell

Good day / bad day today.

The Good:
Met up with @breld for lunch today - as it was mid 70's here in Denver, he had the top down on the Bronco, so we decided to drive up to the Volvo / Audi / VW lot and wander.

The not-so-good:
Inventory is sparse, which makes lot walking not as fun as it used to be. Saw the new Volvo C40, which had a $60K sticker on it.

Also found a used 2018 GTI, with a stick, in the same color @breld sold to @kyfdx (without the plaid seats). Didn't get mileage or price, but I'm sure I wouldn't like either.

The Bad:
Decided to treat the Outback to a nice wash and vac on the way home. Once it was done, I found it wouldn't crank. It's been slow to crank all week, but the battery is only 2.5 years old. Guy at the car wash jumped me with his first gen Escape Hybrid, and I got home without incident.

Once I pulled into the garage and shut it off, I was able to start it twice in a row, with no slow crank.

So - is it the battery, or is it the alternator, or could it be something else? I can call AAA on this if necessary (they sold me the battery that's in the car now).

Wife thinks it might just need a good long drive, which would be good for both me and the car.

Michaell

roadburner said:

Did more digging on the M4; it has the Individual extended leather option, meaning most every surface is upholstered in leather. It reminds me of my E24 M6 which had the Highline interior.

Does this make it more palatable, in your eyes? Might we see a punch?

corvette

@Michaell - my vote is the battery is bouncing like the proverbial dead cat. AAA should be able to test it and the charging system.

stickguy

and if only 2.5 years old, should be under some warranty. I would have them out ASAP to test it and replace if it fails. If it checks out good, then might need to go in for diagnostics, with alternator being a likely culprit.

of course, sitting a lot and then doing a lot of short hops could easily just drain it. a nice long drive could do the car (and the battery) a lot of good.

henryn

My best guess -- you're probably going to need a new battery. Load test is the way to find out. And most battery warranties are pro-rated and don't help very much.

mjfloyd1

This guy knows how to say it

Michaell

Thanks to all who replied.

I’ll give AAA a call in the AM and have them test it. No plans to go anywhere. F1 and NASCAR on my agenda tomorrow.

Michaell

NJ member needs help ... interesting set of requirements and likely a pie-in-the-sky budget

tjc78

He is in trouble…

Brings up a good question, is leasing on just about everything dead right now? The only way I see it working is if your turn in lease has a chunk of equity and you roll it forward.

That RAV he mentions is more than double what is was in 2019. We leased my Mom’s XLE V6 (with some options) for $350 with Toyota gap and just first OOP.. and if you all remember I wasn’t happy with the payment.

Looked at some XC90s from brokers. Nearly an effective $900 payment. $300 more than in 2020

Michaell

tjc78 said:

He is in trouble…

Brings up a good question, is leasing on just about everything dead right now? The only way I see it working is if your turn in lease has a chunk of equity and you roll it forward.

That RAV he mentions is more than double what is was in 2019. We leased my Mom’s XLE V6 (with some options) for $350 with Toyota gap and just first OOP.. and if you all remember I wasn’t happy with the payment.

Looked at some XC90s from brokers. Nearly an effective $900 payment. $300 more than in 2020

Lots of folks are still asking about lease programs, though the frequency has dropped considerably in the past year.

And, a high percentage of folks are shocked/mad/apoplectic about the payment quotes they've been getting.

I've seen a few decent deals, however. A couple of OK CX-9 deals under $500/mo.

I'm afraid of what will happen in 3 years when these leases come due and there isn't any equity in them (assuming the market reverts back to something approaching normal).

You folks who roll over leases are in for a tough road ahead.

I doubt I could lease a Jetta for under $250/mo now.

mjfloyd1

Isn’t that the beauty of a lease though? If you are under water or have an accident, it is not your problem.

stickguy

wouldn't no equity at lease end just mean that the market has returned to normal? Up until recently I always expected to be upside down, and just walking away.

Yeah, payment is higher but if you buy a car, you are paying more too. Just sounds like the upcharge is higher on the lease!

I briefly looked at lease cost on the Maverick. Only had to ask once to know that buying it on a 3 year, zero % note was vastly better financially.

I still look at Rodo on occasion. Lots of stuff (including the Mavericks!) are really bad, but they still have some not terrible sales on there. just have to accept that the former $250 payment cheap car is now $350. So you eat the $100/month for 3 years, and hope when you turn it back in there are cheaper options to replace it.

or just buy something new now, and hold it for a while!

I am glad that, short of a fatal hit to one of my cars, I can wait out the crazy market no matter how long it lasts (only likely move is if I finally get a Hybrid Mav I want to flip into). Having 2 nice, low mile, newer cars that I got for significant discounts makes it a lot less scary!

stickguy

I responded. Probably went overboard, but needed something to do while watching Duke run away with their game.

Michael, from my casual checking, the old $250 cheap car (Jetta S, basic Corolla, Sentra) lease is now the $350 lease. I hate paying that for basic transportation, but still probably better than wading into the used car cesspool! The day my father finally stops driving, I am grabbing his Sentra (that he just bought out the lease when it ended) as fast as possible before he does something dumb with it!

maybe prices are better right now on gas guzzlers? Not that there are too many of those outside of luxury cars, FS trucks, and larger SUVs, all of which are brutally expensive regardless. and of course you make up for any savings at the pump.

jmonroe1

Michaell said:

Thanks to all who replied.

I’ll give AAA a call in the AM and have them test it. No plans to go anywhere. F1 and NASCAR on my agenda tomorrow.

Before you call AAA, check the battery terminals for corrosion and make sure they are tight.

Do the simple things first.

jmonroe

fintail

I'd rather have that beauty than most new ones, maybe not as a DD though.

roadburner said:

Did more digging on the M4; it has the Individual extended leather option, meaning most every surface is upholstered in leather. It reminds me of my E24 M6 which had the Highline interior.

roadburner

Michaell said:

roadburner said:

Did more digging on the M4; it has the Individual extended leather option, meaning most every surface is upholstered in leather. It reminds me of my E24 M6 which had the Highline interior.

Does this make it more palatable, in your eyes? Might we see a punch?

Funny thing; I was looking for an E30 M3 when I found the M6- history repeating itself? I've been talking with a friend who sold his E46 M3 and bought an M2C- he calls the M2 the spiritual successor to his M3. I'm thinking the M4 is likewise the modern version of my M6. I can't get away to look at it until Saturday, but the dealer has already chopped $1k off the asking price. We will see...

oldfarmer50

“ but the dealer has already chopped $1k off the asking price.”

In this market wouldn’t that be a red flag?

greg128

<<i class="Italic">blockquote class="Quote" rel="Michaell"> tjc78 said:He is in trouble…

Brings up a good question, is leasing on just about everything dead right now? The only way I see it working is if your turn in lease has a chunk of equity and you roll it forward.

That RAV he mentions is more than double what is was in 2019. We leased my Mom’s XLE V6 (with some options) for $350 with Toyota gap and just first OOP.. and if you all remember I wasn’t happy with the payment.

Looked at some XC90s from brokers. Nearly an effective $900 payment. $300 more than in 2020


Lots of folks are still asking about lease programs, though the frequency has dropped considerably in the past year.

And, a high percentage of folks are shocked/mad/apoplectic about the payment quotes they've been getting.

I've seen a few decent deals, however. A couple of OK CX-9 deals under $500/mo.

I'm afraid of what will happen in 3 years when these leases come due and there isn't any equity in them (assuming the market reverts back to something approaching normal).

You folks who roll over leases are in for a tough road ahead.

I doubt I could lease a Jetta for under $250/mo now.

The 1% rule of a monthly payment with 0 down and just a bank fee due at signing is gone. I leased a new 2016 Malibu 2.0 Premier for $350 per month (MSRP $35K). $250 per month leases were pretty common especially on sedans with MSRPs in the $25 range, I am pretty sure they are no longer available.

My BIL was looking for a cheap lease on a SUV and checked the Equinox and was quoted around $450 per mo. for an RS with a MSRP of $32K. He wound up with the base model LS and is paying $360 per month for 39 months, only bank fee due at signing and the MSRP was in the $27-28K range.

I also know someone with a leased Mazda SUV cx-5 maybe and wanted to lease a new one as it is coming to an end and the dealer told him it would be at least $100 more a month. I think he is now paying in the high $300s per month but not sure the exact amount.

sda

roadburner said:

Did more digging on the M4; it has the Individual extended leather option, meaning most every surface is upholstered in leather. It reminds me of my E24 M6 which had the Highline interior.

That interior exudes quality and purpose. Not overdone and gimmicky like many current interiors.

mjfloyd1

@roadburner said:
Funny thing; I was looking for an E30 M3 when I found the M6- history repeating itself? I've been talking with a friend who sold his E46 M3 and bought an M2C- he calls the M2 the spiritual successor to his M3. I'm thinking the M4 is likewise the modern version of my M6. I can't get away to look at it until Saturday, but the dealer has already chopped $1k off the asking price. We will see...

I suspect that it would already be in your garage if it had a manual transmission.

stickguy

my last lease was my 2019 TLX. MSRP about $42,500. Payment (36/10) was $400 with $500 DAS.

those terms now, and looking at something like a Civic Sport (basic model).

right now on Rodo, a $40k sticker base model TLX is $629.

jmonroe1

greg128 said:

<<i class="Italic">blockquote class="Quote" rel="Michaell"> tjc78 said:

He is in trouble…

Brings up a good question, is leasing on just about everything dead right now? The only way I see it working is if your turn in lease has a chunk of equity and you roll it forward.

That RAV he mentions is more than double what is was in 2019. We leased my Mom’s XLE V6 (with some options) for $350 with Toyota gap and just first OOP.. and if you all remember I wasn’t happy with the payment.

Looked at some XC90s from brokers. Nearly an effective $900 payment. $300 more than in 2020

Lots of folks are still asking about lease programs, though the frequency has dropped considerably in the past year.

And, a high percentage of folks are shocked/mad/apoplectic about the payment quotes they've been getting.

I've seen a few decent deals, however. A couple of OK CX-9 deals under $500/mo.

I'm afraid of what will happen in 3 years when these leases come due and there isn't any equity in them (assuming the market reverts back to something approaching normal).

You folks who roll over leases are in for a tough road ahead.

I doubt I could lease a Jetta for under $250/mo now.

The 1% rule of a monthly payment with 0 down and just a bank fee due at signing is gone. I leased a new 2016 Malibu 2.0 Premier for $350 per month (MSRP $35K). $250 per month leases were pretty common especially on sedans with MSRPs in the $25 range, I am pretty sure they are no longer available.

My BIL was looking for a cheap lease on a SUV and checked the Equinox and was quoted around $450 per mo. for an RS with a MSRP of $32K. He wound up with the base model LS and is paying $360 per month for 39 months, only bank fee due at signing and the MSRP was in the $27-28K range.

I also know someone with a leased Mazda SUV cx-5 maybe and wanted to lease a new one as it is coming to an end and the dealer told him it would be at least $100 more a month. I think he is now paying in the high $300s per month but not sure the exact amount.

Makes you wish you had a printing press in the garage but that is illegal. But then so is cheating on your taxes. Just might be worth a try.

jmonroe

henryn

I'm rather curious to see how all of this is going to unwind. I am fairly confident that it will unwind, but exactly how, and at what pace? There are some obvious things to look at, to expect, but life has a way of surprising you.



One obvious thought, new car prices will not fall until new cars are abundant again. And that won't happen until the chip shortage is over and done. Chip foundries are expensive, and take years to build and bring online. And used car prices will not fall until new cars are once again abundant and cheap (relatively speaking). So on the face of it, I would expect a long slow recovery, moving back towards what we would call "normal".

But as we have seen with the pandemic, there may be no "return to normal". Instead, a "new normal", which is yet to be fully defined. One thing that looks fairly clear at this point in time, there are going to be a lot more people working from home, at least part of the time.

In the car market, I have read several articles talking about how the car manufacturers hope to move the American market in the direction of the European market. That is low inventory at the dealers, and most customers order the exact vehicle they want. It's unclear whether the American car buying public will go for that model, but then again maybe they won't have a choice?

If "low inventory" does become the new norm, then the oversupply followed by big factory incentives (particularly at the end of the model year), could be a thing of the past. It could be that low cost leases, $250 per month, are a thing of the past and will never return. Heck, we might finally see the Holy Grail that the car manufacturers have wanted all along -- fixed pricing.

28firefighter

Dealers are seeing they can make the same money with less. Why would things unwind?

No one likes my conspiracy theory but I think you’re going to see an accelerated push to direct-to-consumer starting with building to order vehicles through dealers, instead of carrying inventory.

kyfdx

One thing, for sure: When it comes to cars, buyers have lost all sense of value for the dollar. If they want or need it, they'll pay whatever the going rate might be.

Not sure that car dealers/manufacturers realized that, until now. It might be hard to put the genie back in the bottle for consumers.

au1994

28firefighter said:

Dealers are seeing they can make the same money with less. Why would things unwind?

No one likes my conspiracy theory but I think you’re going to see an accelerated push to direct-to-consumer starting with building to order vehicles through dealers, instead of carrying inventory.

I think your theory has merit and it will be interesting how it plays out.

We will find out how strong the dealer lobby is and what these contracts with manufacturers are really made of.

One thing that the dealers will not be happy about is the amount of capital they have tied up in the physical size of a dealership. IE an AutoNation dealer in a major city is a huge piece of real estate and I’m sure the dealership groups paid pretty pennies for those.

They are not going to be happy having only used and a half dozen or so new cars on the lot.

greg128

The days when the Big 3 kept their factories cranking all year to make sure the workers and suppliers were happy, resulting in an oversupply of vehicles and meaning great deals for consumers at the end of the model year are over. The import brands kept their prices lower to compete. Just about every manufacturer has said they are reducing supply, and they are all very happy with the higher prices they are getting.

It is a simple example of supply and demand. The lessening of the supply means higher prices that I don't see going away. I am not sure what that does for the economy but I bet it is not good.

ab348

The chip shortage must surely resolve itself sooner than later. The capacity taken up by the auto sector was apparently usurped by other sectors, but those supply contracts cannot last for very long and I'm sure the auto makers are doing everything they can to restore supply, so it will balance out eventually. As for building to customer order instead of the current model, that is something that I think is not as simple as it may sound. Manufacturers are accustomed to doing production planning based on what works for them and their systems, so it is a pretty significant change in both culture and economics.

Michaell

AAA just left. I need a new battery. Unfortunately, they didn't have the right model on the truck with them. Hopefully it will be in stock later this week.

The good news is that it will be free, as the 3 year warranty is not yet up.

au1994

ab348 said:

The chip shortage must surely resolve itself sooner than later. The capacity taken up by the auto sector was apparently usurped by other sectors, but those supply contracts cannot last for very long and I'm sure the auto makers are doing everything they can to restore supply, so it will balance out eventually. As for building to customer order instead of the current model, that is something that I think is not as simple as it may sound. Manufacturers are accustomed to doing production planning based on what works for them and their systems, so it is a pretty significant change in both culture and economics.

Good points. These union contracts are not geared towards a ‘build to order” business model. I hadn’t thought about that. That will take some working out between the unions and the manufacturers.

There are some key differences in the EU market and the US. First being owning a vehicle is much more expensive in the majority of the EU than it is the US. Fuel, insurance, taxes, storage and parking just to name a few. Plus good, clean and reliable public transportation is much more available in and around the major EU cities. All that being said means, there is less need to a dealer in Munich to keep 3 dozen 1 series on the lot.

28firefighter

Re: real estate - I’m guessing that some of these folks will do fine with their real estate investment. I’ve heard through the grapevine that some of these large dealer group acquisitions are pure real estate plays and the dealer just comes with it.

au1994

28firefighter said:

Re: real estate - I’m guessing that some of these folks will do fine with their real estate investment. I’ve heard through the grapevine that some of these large dealer group acquisitions are pure real estate plays and the dealer just comes with it.

Reasonable thought. I’ve heard the same thing about health care systems and all of the property they own.

kyfdx

28firefighter said:

Re: real estate - I’m guessing that some of these folks will do fine with their real estate investment. I’ve heard through the grapevine that some of these large dealer group acquisitions are pure real estate plays and the dealer just comes with it.

Maybe... I remember when they said the same thing about Sears stores...

henryn

This made me think about the Lawrence Marshall dealerships outside of Houston. He started with a Chevrolet dealership, and expanded to Ford, and Mopar, and it was at it's height a really big deal in the small town of Hempstead, a few miles northwest of Houston. The Chevrolet and Ford dealerships were huge, and he was usually the highest volume Chevrolet dealership in the entire state. Then, in February of 2009, all over.

Lawrence Marshall, the massive small-town dealership that campaigned on a slogan of clobbering “big city prices” closed its doors Wednesday, a victim of the credit crunch and the recession, one of the company’s general managers said. “It’s the economy we’re in right now: We were built for high volume and you can’t sell enough cars today,” said Ted Teague, general manager of Lawrence Marshall’s Chrysler/Dodge/Jeep store. “It’s sad that this had to happen.” In addition to the brands Teague sold, Lawrence Marshall carried Chevrolet, Cadillac, Ford, Hyundai and pre-owned vehicles on a vast 40-acre complex about 50 miles northwest of Houston in Hempstead. Until recently, Lawrence Marshall, which employed about 240 people, sold more than 9,000 units annually and was one of the nation’s leading sellers of Chevrolet trucks, he said. “In past years, Lawrence Marshall was one of the biggest volume dealers in the U.S.,” said Walter Wainwright, president of the Houston Automobile Dealers Association.

I remember the impact on the small town of Hempstead was devastating. It was eerie to drive by afterwards and see the huge empty buildings. I just pulled up a satellite view on Google Maps to see if the empty buildings are still there. Yep, and they look pretty much unused. Sad, really.

stickguy

I am expecting a half and half model. More direct ordering, but still a fair amount of stock on hand. Not everybody can wait for the build time. Dealers need to have some cars to sell on the spot.

personally I like ordering what I want, and getting it at a discount. But very rare that I can't wait.

However, a huge caveat. It can only work if they have parts on hand and can guarantee reasonable, and predictable, delivery times. Having been involved in the Maverick saga (and knowing what happened with the Bronco) current conditions absolutely don't work for customer orders. People waiting 6-9+ months to get delivery is terrible.

Ford in particular also needs to redo their allocation system. That was a train wreck on the Maverick when it ended up being almost entirely customer directed orders. Because their allocation system was built to support everything being dealer stock. If they want to encourage customers placing orders, they need to prioritize those and on a first come first built order (regardless of the dealer they were ordered through).

au1994

Definitely have to cut the lead times down. I seem to remember my father ordering a couple of Oldsmobiles way back in the day and only waiting 6 weeks.

Agree that there have to be some offerings on the ground at all times. Even if lead time gets cut way back if you total your car for instance I don't see being able to wait 8 weeks. No way I’d expect an insurance company to keep me in a rental for 6 months.

I’ll also note that in the current business model (pre-shortage) when I asked about ordering a model to my specs it was greeted with about as much enthusiasm as a prostate check by the sales person. They were much more interested in moving current inventory over the curb.

stickguy

they don't get paid until the metal rolls. Before that, just get pestered by customers for updates!

I forgot one more must do (to make this beneficial to buyers). Loosen up the build options. Ford still had strict package constraints even when custom ordering. To me, the big value add would be letting me mix and match and basically create a custom package.

au1994

stickguy said:

they don't get paid until the metal rolls. Before that, just get pestered by customers for updates!

I forgot one more must do (to make this beneficial to buyers). Loosen up the build options. Ford still had strict package constraints even when custom ordering. To me, the big value add would be letting me mix and match and basically create a custom package.

From a manufacturing standpoint packaging options allows them to sequence materials at the line thus making the process more efficient. IE they can set up and run a half a shift of Camrys with option package XYZ and grey interior without having to change a thing. It gets way more complicated from a materials management perspective when there are nuances to every other car.

Not defending it, I’d love the flexibility, but I do see their point. I was a Mustang guy from way back, first car was a ‘66. Like a lot of other cars of that era virtually all options were a la carte. I can’t recall the number but the potential combo of options was a staggering number!

stickguy

they aren't that strict on runs. whatever needs to be there for a particular car, magically shows up!

I think they do it more for convenience when they were just building all stock units. Fewer varieties to worry about.

yes it makes it easier for them, but why should a customer spend extra effort to order, and wait months, when they still have to take whatever the company feels like making?

explorerx4

I found this about the 2016 F150 XL model only, not including standalone options.
Ford F-150 XL: 4,147,200 build permutations

au1994

stickguy said:

they aren't that strict on runs. whatever needs to be there for a particular car, magically shows up!

I think they do it more for convenience when they were just building all stock units. Fewer varieties to worry about.

yes it makes it easier for them, but why should a customer spend extra effort to order, and wait months, when they still have to take whatever the company feels like making?

I get ya! Today, with so much stuff std equip, its more about uncoupling options. IE: leather, moonroof and upgraded audio are not a package. Or: all of the love ‘em or hate ‘em safety nannies are stand alone options instead of locked in packages where its all or nothing.

au1994

explorerx4 said:

I found this about the 2016 F150 XL model only, not including standalone options.
Ford F-150 XL: 4,147,200 build permutations

My luck, I’d be the guy that wanted the unobtanium 4,147,201th configuration!

corvette

stickguy said:

Loosen up the build options. Ford still had strict package constraints even when custom ordering.

I found it odd that they offered the sunroof option on the XL. It was tempting, but given that I'm buying with the thought of flipping it if I don't like it, plus the various and random constrained options, I decided against it.

corvette

Interesting commentary about the various supply chain constraints, including chips.

With regard to chips, I think it's a systemic issue not just affecting vehicles. Other than the yearly iPhone update cycle, Apple's release schedule has been pretty lackluster lately, with the earliest M1 products over a year old without updates. I, myself, am waiting on the second generation M-powered Mac mini to replace a laptop which I am currently using as a desktop.

I'm not sure where the auto demand/supply curve ends up, either. I do know that consumers who are paying $5k above MSRP for new metal without fretting about it are probably going to end up keeping the vehicle longer unless their wages increase substantially, whether that is due to negative equity or sticker shock at the cost of more frequent trading. On the other hand, the cost of keeping an older vehicle on the road is going to go up due to the increased costs of parts and labor.

stickguy

I am no expert but did read that cars mostly use old fashioned chips, not the newer designs that phones, computers, etc. use. and that a lot of manufacturing is going toward those, so there is less capacity (and lower profit margins) left for car makers, and whoever else uses them. so either they have to support building more capacity (I think Ford is doing this with global foundries), or make the move to update chipsets.

stickguy

also, on paying more now, if you need it you need it. Can certainly keep the car longer. or, bank on prices going up and staying there, so your actual depreciation won't be as high.

not like most people were making smart financial decisions buying and selling cars anyway. so just changes the size of the bath.

I am in the wait it out category. Though for the right offer, I can be tempted! At least I have warranty for a long time (2/4 on one car, 3/5 on the other).

stickguy

corvette said:

stickguy said:

Loosen up the build options. Ford still had strict package constraints even when custom ordering.

I found it odd that they offered the sunroof option on the XL. It was tempting, but given that I'm buying with the thought of flipping it if I don't like it, plus the various and random constrained options, I decided against it.

I thought that too. the XL was packaged and pushed to be the cheap fleet option. Can't even get cruise on it. or power mirrors unless you get the co-pilot package (thankfully they did offer that).

so seeing the moonroof option was strange. Unless it is so profitable they were hoping some people would take it.

the unit I test drove back in November (random unit that showed up at the dealer for a few days, so right place, right time) was actually an XL with the roof and nothing else.

stickguy

au1994 said:

stickguy said:

they aren't that strict on runs. whatever needs to be there for a particular car, magically shows up!

I think they do it more for convenience when they were just building all stock units. Fewer varieties to worry about.

yes it makes it easier for them, but why should a customer spend extra effort to order, and wait months, when they still have to take whatever the company feels like making?

I get ya! Today, with so much stuff std equip, its more about uncoupling options. IE: leather, moonroof and upgraded audio are not a package. Or: all of the love ‘em or hate ‘em safety nannies are stand alone options instead of locked in packages where its all or nothing.

yeah, I was thinking about that kind of stuff. Don't want a moonroof but want the luxury features? Take it off. Leather or cloth on any model. stuff like that.

ab348

explorerx4 said:

I found this about the 2016 F150 XL model only, not including standalone options.
Ford F-150 XL: 4,147,200 build permutations

I remember reading (I think in DeLorean’s book) that there were something like 28 million permutations of the 1969 Chevy.