Chronic Car Buyers Anonymous (Archived)

tjc78

@qbrozen said:
I assume he played alone most of the time in the sandbox as a child.

He is just an [non-permissible content removed]

pensfan83

I'm definitely watching this with interest to see where it lands. The color is highly desirable, it's 4 years newer than mine, has what appears to be the dealer installed leather seats, and looks to be devoid of rust. But it's overdue for a timing belt service and is noted to have oil leaks and consumption issues.

Mine is 4 years older, I have 45K less miles, the body and interior are generally on par with one another (minus the leather, I have cloth). However in the past 2 years I've done a full timing belt service, plugged oil leaks, and did a full front suspension rebuild.

https://bringatrailer.com/listing/2001-honda-prelude-53/

stickguy

love the color but those miles are steep.

pensfan83

Fair. For me though, higher mileage cars with robust service records scare me less than cars with low mileage where owners seem to think that absolves them of upkeep. Plus you don't have to fret about driving them and accumulating miles. Also at this point it's highly unlikely someone is going to DD one of these. I average maybe 1K miles per year, a little higher last year.

kyfdx

2011, we bought an '87 with 189K
2014, we bought a '95 with 205K

If they are still in good running condition after that many miles, then someone has been keeping up with repair and maintenance.

You do wonder about metal fatigue and rust, eventually, though

nyccarguy

pensfan83 said:

I'm definitely watching this with interest to see where it lands. The color is highly desirable, it's 4 years newer than mine, has what appears to be the dealer installed leather seats, and looks to be devoid of rust. But it's overdue for a timing belt service and is noted to have oil leaks and consumption issues.

Mine is 4 years older, I have 45K less miles, the body and interior are generally on par with one another (minus the leather, I have cloth). However in the past 2 years I've done a full timing belt service, plugged oil leaks, and did a full front suspension rebuild.

https://bringatrailer.com/listing/2001-honda-prelude-53/

Have you seen THISSSSSS (sorry, couldn't resist)
https://carsandbids.com/auctions/KP4QvxoV/1997-honda-prelude-type-sh

I meant to ask you, did you have the head gasket replaced? What about the Thermostat? Plug Wires, Distributor Cap & Rotor? I was thinking about having the mechanic replace those along with the VTEC solenoid gaskets, Valve Cover Gasket, & Oil Pan Gasket when I have the Timing Belt Service performed.

stickguy

While you’re in there!

pensfan83

nyccarguy said:

pensfan83 said:

I'm definitely watching this with interest to see where it lands. The color is highly desirable, it's 4 years newer than mine, has what appears to be the dealer installed leather seats, and looks to be devoid of rust. But it's overdue for a timing belt service and is noted to have oil leaks and consumption issues.

Mine is 4 years older, I have 45K less miles, the body and interior are generally on par with one another (minus the leather, I have cloth). However in the past 2 years I've done a full timing belt service, plugged oil leaks, and did a full front suspension rebuild.

https://bringatrailer.com/listing/2001-honda-prelude-53/

Have you seen THISSSSSS (sorry, couldn't resist)
https://carsandbids.com/auctions/KP4QvxoV/1997-honda-prelude-type-sh

I meant to ask you, did you have the head gasket replaced? What about the Thermostat? Plug Wires, Distributor Cap & Rotor? I was thinking about having the mechanic replace those along with the VTEC solenoid gaskets, Valve Cover Gasket, & Oil Pan Gasket when I have the Timing Belt Service performed.

I love that color combo, I think it was only offered in 97/98 and in low volume so definitely rare.

To answer your question, yes to all of the above with the exception of the head gasket and oil pan gasket. The latter was done by the prior owner. Plugs, tensioner, oil cooler o ring, and front main seal were also covered during the TB service.

ab348

I'm not sure if this is just bad news for @qbrozen and his recent purchase, or really bad news.

https://www.hagerty.com/media/market-trends/hagerty-insider/why-japanese-car-parts-are-getting-harder-and-pricier-to-source

nyccarguy

These are the plug wires, right?

henryn

nyccarguy said:

These are the plug wires, right?

Yes, those are spark plug wires. I can't say whether they are the right part for YOUR car, but those are definitely spark plug wires.

henryn

ab348 said:

I'm not sure if this is just bad news for @qbrozen and his recent purchase, or really bad news.

https://www.hagerty.com/media/market-trends/hagerty-insider/why-japanese-car-parts-are-getting-harder-and-pricier-to-source

Interesting. I blame "Fast and Furious" for the whole thing. I remember when the first movie came out, my nephew (now in his 50s) said something like, "They only had one car in the whole movie."

I remember thinking at the time, the silliest part was where one car showed up for a serious street race in a car with about $10k invested in aftermarket stereo, amps, subwoofers, flashing lights, etc. No one with the slightest serious intent for racing would ever add 1 extra ounce of weight to the car.

qbrozen

ab348 said:

I'm not sure if this is just bad news for @qbrozen and his recent purchase, or really bad news.

https://www.hagerty.com/media/market-trends/hagerty-insider/why-japanese-car-parts-are-getting-harder-and-pricier-to-source

Same story, different decade.

jmonroe1

@greg128 said:
I'd be happy with just one

Hell, I got one just for not ripping him.

jmonroe

nyccarguy

I spent close to $700 on maintenance parts last year (that are still sitting in my garage), a little over $400 this afternoon, and $200 on a pair of complete used headlights yesterday, & $75 on a set of fog lights a few months ago. That’s before I pay the mechanic a dime. Once these $1,500 worth of parts are installed which I think will cost about $1,500 ish to install, probably closer to $2K I’ve still got to get 4 new tires, and then the car still only looks good from about 10 feet away before you start seeing all the scratches and stone chips…

There was a 115K mile green/black Integra GSR on FB market place for about $12K.

fintail

As if Twitter wasn't bad enough. Maybe some kind pump and dump scheme - not like he'll ever get in real trouble for anything.

ab348 said:

Didn't take long - he has just announced a hostile takeover of Twitter. He's not just a loose cannon, he's a loose nuclear missile.

https://www.autonews.com/executives/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-launches-43-billion-hostile-takeover-twitter?utm_source=breaking-news&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20220414&utm_content=hero-readmore

stickguy

he should just buy that knock off twitter platform. should be a whole lot cheaper.

corvette

The guy who invented that knock-off platform isn’t really posting anything there. Perhaps he’s lost interest?

Michaell

Updates from San Diego ....

So, Infiniti (like many brands) are not allowing 3rd party buyouts of leases, so they have to sell it to an Infiniti dealer. There are two pretty close to her, so I decide to check inventory.

One has 11 Q50's on the lot, the other only 6. She calls the dealer with the fewer number of cars, and the UCM tells her they have to bring it in for an evaluation and quote.

The 6 on the lot are priced between $30-32K, so I feel she should be able to get $27-28K for hers in trade. They are going in next Saturday to see what they say.

On the new car, I think they've decided on the Venza XLE in Coastal Mist Metallic (dark grey). Black or white are her backup color choices. She's reached out to her friend, who told my sister they will expedite the request and see how quickly they can get one in stock for her.

I also think they are going to lease - did some preliminary calculations, and with the realized equity from the Q50, they should be able to keep the payment under $500/mo.

We shall see...

sda

I am sitting at the Honda dealer in Rock Hill. I brought mom's 2010 CR-V EX with 74k to be serviced and to have the radio code reset. The dealer is down to 2 new Ridgelines on the lot, that's it. Even the used car selection is sparse.

benjaminh

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/vw-expects-microchip-shortage-last-until-2024

"April 11, 2022, BERLIN -- Volkswagen Group expects the semiconductor shortage to continue longer than expected, the automaker's finance chief Arno Antlitz said. Supplies of semiconductors will not normalize until 2024, by which time there will still be a structural undersupply, Antlitz said in an interview with Boersen-Zeitung published on Saturday....BMW Group CEO Oliver Zipse made similar predictions in an interview with newspaper Neue Zuercher Zeitung published on Monday.

"We are still in the height of the chip shortage," Zipse was quoted as saying. "I expect us to start seeing improvements at the latest next year, but we will still have to deal with a fundamental shortage in 2023."

pensfan83

@nyccarguy those look right to me, the part number checks out.

Also, I'm not sure if you're on Facebook but there's a few Prelude and 5th Gen Prelude groups out there you can also join for additional resources or questions. I pretty much keep Facebook only to access those and a few other groups.

breld

The Z may have just got knocked out of the running.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a39734676/toyota-supra-manual-confirmed/

benjaminh

My understanding is that unlike other manufacturers Tesla didn't pause its chip orders when the pandemic hit. Furthermore, Tesla uses more custom-made and more expensive chips. The bottom line seems to be that Tesla is better able to deal with this long-term chip shortage than pretty much everyone else. While others will be forced to keep production 20-40% below factory capacity, it seems likely at this point that Tesla will be able to run its existing factories in California and China at close to full capacity, and then slowly ramp up its new factories in Austin and Berlin. So while everyone else is constrained, Tesla will probably be able to increase production by around 50% in 2022, and another c. 50% in 2023. Tesla's market share in many places is likely to increase rapidly.

nyccarguy

pensfan83 said:

@nyccarguy those look right to me, the part number checks out.

Also, I'm not sure if you're on Facebook but there's a few Prelude and 5th Gen Prelude groups out there you can also join for additional resources or questions. I pretty much keep Facebook only to access those and a few other groups.

yes. I am. The posts from people are amazing. They talk about engine & transmission swaps like it is as easy as ordering Pizza.

jmonroe1

@Michaell said:
Updates from San Diego ....

So, Infiniti (like many brands) are not allowing 3rd party buyouts of leases, so they have to sell it to an Infiniti dealer. There are two pretty close to her, so I decide to check inventory.

One has 11 Q50's on the lot, the other only 6. She calls the dealer with the fewer number of cars, and the UCM tells her they have to bring it in for an evaluation and quote.

The 6 on the lot are priced between $30-32K, so I feel she should be able to get $27-28K for hers in trade. They are going in next Saturday to see what they say.

On the new car, I think they've decided on the Venza XLE in Coastal Mist Metallic (dark grey). Black or white are her backup color choices. She's reached out to her friend, who told my sister they will expedite the request and see how quickly they can get one in stock for her.

I also think they are going to lease - did some preliminary calculations, and with the realized equity from the Q50, they should be able to keep the payment under $500/mo.

We shall see...

Call it what you like, it’s still “Old Man’s Gray”.

jmonroe

Michaell

jmonroe1 said:

@Michaell said:

Updates from San Diego ....

So, Infiniti (like many brands) are not allowing 3rd party buyouts of leases, so they have to sell it to an Infiniti dealer. There are two pretty close to her, so I decide to check inventory.

One has 11 Q50's on the lot, the other only 6. She calls the dealer with the fewer number of cars, and the UCM tells her they have to bring it in for an evaluation and quote.

The 6 on the lot are priced between $30-32K, so I feel she should be able to get $27-28K for hers in trade. They are going in next Saturday to see what they say.

On the new car, I think they've decided on the Venza XLE in Coastal Mist Metallic (dark grey). Black or white are her backup color choices. She's reached out to her friend, who told my sister they will expedite the request and see how quickly they can get one in stock for her.

I also think they are going to lease - did some preliminary calculations, and with the realized equity from the Q50, they should be able to keep the payment under $500/mo.

We shall see...

Call it what you like, it’s still “Old Man’s Gray”.

jmonroe

Well, they are both in their 50’s.

Does that count as old?

ab348

I read a piece stating that Tesla took whatever chips they could get and then rewrote their code to run on those instead. But who knows, really. When I read that I was dubious because how would you be able to update so many different pieces of code depending upon what chipset your vehicle had? Sounds like a nightmare for owners. But since it’s Tesla I guess anything is possible.

benjaminh

As probably all of you know, Tesla is now casting large parts of its vehicles using a Giga press. These huge presses are made by Idra Group of Italy, which can only make a small number each year. Most of Idra's production for the last few years has gone to Tesla, which has developed a proprietary aluminum alloy for use in these machines. One advantage of these large castings is that the newer Model Ys have 370 fewer parts than the earlier versions, as well as a reduction in weight of about 10%. Apparently there is higher quality, durability, and maybe even better crash performance with these large castings as well. Finally, production speed can also be increased because many of the welding robots previously needed are eliminated.

This detailed 25-minute video is clearly from a Tesla supporter, but it seems to make several good points about the advantages of this manufacturing method. The level of engineering needed for something like this is staggering, as is the expense, which is seemingly why no one else has done it so far.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5frC2huNno

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giga_Press

I plan to keep my gas car for several more years, but with the improvements being made in EVs I might eventually make the leap. For now though, I love the 600-mile highway range of my 2018 TLX, especially since I regularly do a round-trip highway drive of about 450 miles in one day. That drive takes about 7 hours (including a few rest stops) if the traffic is okay. Right now I don't like the idea of adding an extra hour or so to that to get a recharge in an EV.

qbrozen

breld said:

The Z may have just got knocked out of the running.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a39734676/toyota-supra-manual-confirmed/

But you're talking about several purchases from now, right?

andres3

jmonroe1 said:

@Michaell said:

Updates from San Diego ....

So, Infiniti (like many brands) are not allowing 3rd party buyouts of leases, so they have to sell it to an Infiniti dealer. There are two pretty close to her, so I decide to check inventory.

One has 11 Q50's on the lot, the other only 6. She calls the dealer with the fewer number of cars, and the UCM tells her they have to bring it in for an evaluation and quote.

The 6 on the lot are priced between $30-32K, so I feel she should be able to get $27-28K for hers in trade. They are going in next Saturday to see what they say.

On the new car, I think they've decided on the Venza XLE in Coastal Mist Metallic (dark grey). Black or white are her backup color choices. She's reached out to her friend, who told my sister they will expedite the request and see how quickly they can get one in stock for her.

I also think they are going to lease - did some preliminary calculations, and with the realized equity from the Q50, they should be able to keep the payment under $500/mo.

We shall see...

Call it what you like, it’s still “Old Man’s Gray”.

jmonroe

The next yellow should be called "Young Man's Yellow"

henryn

March was a very bad month for Ford.

Here are some lowlights from March 2022 sales. Total sales were down by 25.6 percent compared to March 2021. The F-Series got crushed as sales were barely more than half of what was sold last March. 84,043 F-Series vehicles were sold in March 2021 and only 44,906 were sold last month. That is a 46.6 percent decline. Many other models saw a similar decline. Total truck sales were down 34.4 percent compared to March 2021, and total SUV sales were down 9.4 percent. Most of these declines can be attributed to the semiconductor chip shortage, but still, these are painful numbers.

breld

qbrozen said:

breld said:

The Z may have just got knocked out of the running.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a39734676/toyota-supra-manual-confirmed/

But you're talking about several purchases from now, right?

Of course! But it's nice to plan ahead.

So actually strike what I said, the Z is still in the running. It's just a race of availability for which comes first.

xwesx

breld said:

qbrozen said:

breld said:

The Z may have just got knocked out of the running.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a39734676/toyota-supra-manual-confirmed/

But you're talking about several purchases from now, right?

Of course! But it's nice to plan ahead.

So actually strike what I said, the Z is still in the running. It's just a race of availability for which comes first.

What you really meant was that you now know what will replace the Z.

benjaminh

“The Model Y line will be the highest-capacity line, I think, of any line in the world. In fact, I’m confident it will be,” Musk, dressed in a black cowboy hat, black sunglasses and black Giga Texas T-shirt, told attendees. “Half a million units a year in a single factory of one product is the biggest dang thing in the world. This will be the highest volume car factory in America.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2022/04/07/elon-musk-opens-teslas-giga-texas-that--he-says-is-the-biggest-us-plant/?sh=1853755b1fe2

In 2021 Honda/Acura sold about 1.4 million in the US, while Tesla sold about 300,000.

In 2022 Honda will again likely sell about 1.4 million, while Tesla will probably increase to around 900,000.

As chip supplies grow, in 2023 Honda/Acura might be able to make and sell c. 1.6 million, while Tesla will likely get to around 1.4 million.

By 2024 things will probably be about tied, with each one selling about 1.6 million vehicles in the US. Honda and Acura combined currently have about a 10% share of the market, and so that means that Tesla will also have about 10% of the market. Since Tesla's least expensive Model 3 now lists for almost $50,000, I'm guessing that Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Cadillac, Acura, and Lincoln will be hardest hit. But I'm sure there are some people who previously would have gotten a loaded Toyota, Honda, Ford, Chevy, etc. who will now instead order a Tesla.

benjaminh

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/tesla-us-sales-figures/

In the seven years from 2015 to 2021, Tesla sold slightly more than 1 million vehicles in the US. If Tesla sells about 900,000 during 2022 in the US that will obviously mean that the number of Teslas on US roads will almost double this year.

Things seem to be breaking Tesla's way to create almost a perfect storm for their EVs. They can charge high prices, and yet still have almost unlimited demand.

About three years ago, when the Model 3 started at less than 40k, a couple of youtube videos made the case that buying a Model 3 instead of a Camry would pay off in the long run. Now that the Model 3 starts at 50k I don't think the case can be made any more—and yet still sales are crazy.

Anyway, as Musk says the Model Y is going to be Tesla's really high-volume vehicle. In 2021 Ford sold about 726,000 F-series trucks in the US. By 2024 Tesla will probably have the capacity to sell about 800,000 Model Ys each year in the US (500k from Austin, and 300k from Fremont).

roadburner

breld said:

The Z may have just got knocked out of the running.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a39734676/toyota-supra-manual-confirmed/

Of course the Toyota dealers with slap an even more ridiculous ADM on the manual Supras, sales will be slow, and then Toyota will announce, "We offered a manual, but it didn't sell."

fintail

I have my doubts about mainline MB and BMW customers jumping ship en masse - there are a lot of traditionalist/brand loyalist types with both brands (for example, both have among the most devoted and longest lived club scene). It will be interesting to see how sales fare, and bearing in mind legacy brands are unveiling their own EVs - some that might have a more interesting design language than Tesla. Competition improves all.

Personally, I expect to keep my gasoline car though the decade. Come 2030, assuming finances allow and we haven't been nuked etc, might be when I go electric, but right now anyway I am doubting it would be Tesla, and probably won't be before then. I want more sweet sweet range, useful range at normal speeds with ICE and HVAC in use.

MB just released a long range concept, no doubt witheringly expensive - at least for now

benjaminh said:

“The Model Y line will be the highest-capacity line, I think, of any line in the world. In fact, I’m confident it will be,” Musk, dressed in a black cowboy hat, black sunglasses and black Giga Texas T-shirt, told attendees. “Half a million units a year in a single factory of one product is the biggest dang thing in the world. This will be the highest volume car factory in America.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2022/04/07/elon-musk-opens-teslas-giga-texas-that--he-says-is-the-biggest-us-plant/?sh=1853755b1fe2

In 2021 Honda/Acura sold about 1.4 million in the US, while Tesla sold about 300,000.

In 2022 Honda will again likely sell about 1.4 million, while Tesla will probably increase to around 900,000.

As chip supplies grow, in 2023 Honda/Acura might be able to make and sell c. 1.6 million, while Tesla will likely get to around 1.4 million.

By 2024 things will probably be about tied, with each one selling about 1.6 million vehicles in the US. Honda and Acura combined currently have about a 10% share of the market, and so that means that Tesla will also have about 10% of the market. Since Tesla's least expensive Model 3 now lists for almost $50,000, I'm guessing that Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Cadillac, Acura, and Lincoln will be hardest hit. But I'm sure there are some people who previously would have gotten a loaded Toyota, Honda, Ford, Chevy, etc. who will now instead order a Tesla.

roadburner

fintail said:

I have my doubts about mainline MB and BMW customers jumping ship en masse - there are a lot of traditionalist/brand loyalist types with both brands (for example, both have among the most devoted and longest lived club scene). It will be interesting to see how sales fare, and bearing in mind legacy brands are unveiling their own EVs - some that might have a more interesting design language than Tesla. Competition improves all.

Personally, I expect to keep my gasoline car though the decade. Come 2030, assuming finances allow and we haven't been nuked etc, might be when I go electric, but right now anyway I am doubting it would be Tesla, and probably won't be before then. I want more sweet sweet range, useful range at normal speeds with ICE and HVAC in use.

MB just released a long range concept, no doubt witheringly expensive - at least for now

benjaminh said:

“The Model Y line will be the highest-capacity line, I think, of any line in the world. In fact, I’m confident it will be,” Musk, dressed in a black cowboy hat, black sunglasses and black Giga Texas T-shirt, told attendees. “Half a million units a year in a single factory of one product is the biggest dang thing in the world. This will be the highest volume car factory in America.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2022/04/07/elon-musk-opens-teslas-giga-texas-that--he-says-is-the-biggest-us-plant/?sh=1853755b1fe2

In 2021 Honda/Acura sold about 1.4 million in the US, while Tesla sold about 300,000.

In 2022 Honda will again likely sell about 1.4 million, while Tesla will probably increase to around 900,000.

As chip supplies grow, in 2023 Honda/Acura might be able to make and sell c. 1.6 million, while Tesla will likely get to around 1.4 million.

By 2024 things will probably be about tied, with each one selling about 1.6 million vehicles in the US. Honda and Acura combined currently have about a 10% share of the market, and so that means that Tesla will also have about 10% of the market. Since Tesla's least expensive Model 3 now lists for almost $50,000, I'm guessing that Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Cadillac, Acura, and Lincoln will be hardest hit. But I'm sure there are some people who previously would have gotten a loaded Toyota, Honda, Ford, Chevy, etc. who will now instead order a Tesla.

I'm still not interested in an EV to replace any of my "fun" cars; that said, if forced I'd go with a PHEV 2er or 3er.

benjaminh

Back in the 1970s and 1980s iirc, GM would often have quite good sales of their cars just before they were downsized. The downsized full-sized cars from GM came out for model year 1977, but my memory is that sales of the last of the '76 full-sized cars were as big as the cars themselves (the old couple across the street from us got a brand-new 76 convertible Chevy Caprice in blue that was their pride and joy). And in 1984, when the last of the old-style body-on-frame Oldsmobile 98s and other GM cars of that size were already doomed, didn't they sell really well too?

I wonder if all these years later something similar might happen as internal combustion engine vehicles are slowly phased out. Since GM is focusing a lot of their electrification on Cadillac, perhaps there will be good sales of the last of the gas Cadillacs in the next few years?

On the other hand, in the rush to EVs I wonder if some are maybe overreacting to high gas prices. Even with gas at about $4.20 a gallon, it would take about 23 years to make up the price difference between a Ford Maverick Lariat hybrid and a Tesla Model 3 with gas savings. Ditto when comparing a Model 3 with a Honda Civic turbo EX. Even a 2.0 turbo Maverick XLT has about a $25,000 price difference when compared with a Model 3, which means it would probably take about 15 years to see any savings when it comes to powering your vehicle. The Model 3 is obviously cleaner and faster, but at the same time many other options have more range on the highway.


https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbsSelect

Anyway, at some point, maybe as soon as 2025, there might even be an EV price war. By 2025 Tesla will seemingly be making 1.6 million EVs in the US, Ford maybe 700,000, GM maybe another 700k, Toyota maybe 200k, VW a hundred thousand, Honda c. 100k, Hyundai/KIA maybe another 100k, Nissan c. 100k, Lucid maybe another 100k, and then maybe another 300k combined from Audi, Mercedes Benz, BMW, Lexus, Acura, etc. That adds up to something like 4 million EVs that will need to find US homes in 2025, compared to about 400k sold in 2021. What if only 2 million people really want EVs at almost any price, and the other 2 million will only take one if the price is right? Plus by 2025 Tesla will probably already be building their next giga-factory (land for it was already purchased in Austin) with capacity for another million. Even by 2024 maybe our car inflation might end as the chip shortage ends.

nyccarguy

Fuel economy in the 4Xe was up this week. 31.97 mpg.

sda

nyccarguy said:

Fuel economy in the 4Xe was up this week. 31.97 mpg.

How do you like it overall? Is it easy to live with, a good commuter?

oldfarmer50

benjaminh said:

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/vw-expects-microchip-shortage-last-until-2024

"April 11, 2022, BERLIN -- Volkswagen Group expects the semiconductor shortage to continue longer than expected, the automaker's finance chief Arno Antlitz said. Supplies of semiconductors will not normalize until 2024, by which time there will still be a structural undersupply, Antlitz said in an interview with Boersen-Zeitung published on Saturday....BMW Group CEO Oliver Zipse made similar predictions in an interview with newspaper Neue Zuercher Zeitung published on Monday.

"We are still in the height of the chip shortage," Zipse was quoted as saying. "I expect us to start seeing improvements at the latest next year, but we will still have to deal with a fundamental shortage in 2023."

Every time someone makes a prediction they push back the date for the shortage to end. My coworker also drives for a MB dealer and was picking up a car from an executive at the local chip fab plant. The guy told him that in the past the car companies called the shots with manufacturers but now the situation was reversed. He was gloating that they now made the car makers beg.

For all we know the chip makers are creating a permanent shortage.

oldfarmer50

benjaminh said:

Back in the 1970s and 1980s iirc, GM would often have quite good sales of their cars just before they were downsized. The downsized full-sized cars from GM came out for model year 1977, but my memory is that sales of the last of the '76 full-sized cars were as big as the cars themselves (the old couple across the street from us got a brand-new 76 convertible Chevy Caprice in blue that was their pride and joy). And in 1984, when the last of the old-style body-on-frame Oldsmobile 98s and other GM cars of that size were already doomed, didn't they sell really well too?

I wonder if all these years later something similar might happen as internal combustion engine vehicles are slowly phased out. Since GM is focusing a lot of their electrification on Cadillac, perhaps there will be good sales of the last of the gas Cadillacs in the next few years?

On the other hand, in the rush to EVs I wonder if some are maybe overreacting to high gas prices. Even with gas at about $4.20 a gallon, it would take about 23 years to make up the price difference between a Ford Maverick Lariat hybrid and a Tesla Model 3 with gas savings. Ditto when comparing a Model 3 with a Honda Civic turbo EX. Even a 2.0 turbo Maverick XLT has about a $25,000 price difference when compared with a Model 3, which means it would probably take about 15 years to see any savings when it comes to powering your vehicle. The Model 3 is obviously cleaner and faster, but at the same time many other options have more range on the highway.


https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbsSelect

Anyway, at some point, maybe as soon as 2025, there might even be an EV price war. By 2025 Tesla will seemingly be making 1.6 million EVs in the US, Ford maybe 700,000, GM maybe another 700k, Toyota maybe 200k, VW a hundred thousand, Honda c. 100k, Hyundai/KIA maybe another 100k, Nissan c. 100k, Lucid maybe another 100k, and then maybe another 300k combined from Audi, Mercedes Benz, BMW, Lexus, Acura, etc. That adds up to something like 4 million EVs that will need to find US homes in 2025, compared to about 400k sold in 2021. What if only 2 million people really want EVs at almost any price, and the other 2 million will only take one if the price is right? Plus by 2025 Tesla will probably already be building their next giga-factory (land for it was already purchased in Austin) with capacity for another million. Even by 2024 maybe our car inflation might end as the chip shortage ends.

I still think for city apartment dwellers, charging will be a problem for a long time. A shame since city environments seem to be they place where EVs would have the most pollution impact.

For rural people, the lack of charging infrastructure would also limit ownership. Personally I wouldn’t want the expense of installing charging ports in my house on top of the EV premium price.

For people of modest means who could never afford a new EV, buying a used one (10+ years old) might be a gamble. I own a gas powered 22 year old car that runs fine. The reliability of a similarly aged EV is an unknown.

benjaminh

Yet another post on Tesla, because on their website I just found out that they plan to expand their original factory in Fremont in the next few years, which gives more weight to the idea that EV prices might fall in the next few years.

https://www.tesla.com/factory

"....the company will nearly double the size of the facility to almost 10 million square feet, creating thousands of new jobs in the coming years. Today, close to 22,000 employees work at the Fremont factory."



This factory has been running 24/7 since 2018, and currently has a capacity to build 600k vehicles. According to one article the expansion would mean about 900k vehicles by about 2025. This again makes it seem likely that by 2025 EV prices will fall, because when combined with the 1 million+ production from Austin, that means that three years from now Tesla will be able to make 2 million EVs for North America, compared to just 300k they sold last year.

This reminds me of Honda in the 1970s and 80s. Starting about 1975 there were waiting lists for cars at Honda dealers across the country, and for the next ten years many people not only had to get on a waiting list to get their Honda, but they also had to pay an additional dealer mark-up. But in 1982 Honda opened their Marysville factory in Ohio, and by 1986 it had doubled in size. Suddenly Honda Accords were flooding into dealerships across the country. No more waiting lists. No more adm. In fact, in 1986 most Honda dealers started discounting big from msrp. I remember screamer ads in the LA Times classifieds in 1986 from Honda dealers competing with each other to sell Accords. They sold every one, and it soon became the best selling car in America—but discounted from msrp. Same reality held true when I got my first new Accord in 2002 for more than $4000 off msrp.

Now Tesla is in a different and better position than Honda was then, because they don't yet really have competitors. In 1985 if there was an ADM on an Accord you could just go buy another gas car instead. But even now there's not much choice if you don't get a Tesla. The waiting list for a Model Y is 6 months or so, but the waiting list for a VW ID.4 is 9 months or so.

Anyway, even in 2021 Fremont was exporting half of its production to other parts of the world, but with the Berlin factory open that's no longer needed, which is why Tesla sales have already more than doubled in the US in the first three months of this year.

And now slowly but surely the Death Star of the Austin factory is going to ramp up to full power. When that happens it will not only affect Tesla's competitors but also Tesla itself, because the basic economics of supply and demand will eventually take hold as EV supplies go from tiny to huge over the next three years. This is especially true because it's not just Tesla expanding production. Ford, GM, and everyone else have all launched crash programs of almost World War II dimensions to convert production from gas cars to EVs, and floods of those EVs from everyone will all hit the market starting in 2025.

Anyway, my 2 cents from all this is that if you don't yet have an EV you might want to wait a few years. Deals should be good if you can wait for supplies to catch up with demand.

sda

While waiting to have mom’s CR-V serviced yesterday I chatted with a salesperson and remarked that I didn’t see any new vehicles except two Ridgelines. He confirmed that was true and said instead of getting a several truckloads of vehicles weekly they were lucky to get 3 or 4 vehicles, not truckloads, a week! I also noticed they had a used 2022 Civic Touring with 6k mi. It already had scratches on the hood and driver’s door. They have it listed for $38k! Good grief.

benjaminh

oldfarmer50 said:

....For people of modest means who could never afford a new EV, buying a used one (10+ years old) might be a gamble. I own a gas powered 22 year old car that runs fine. The reliability of a similarly aged EV is an unknown.

Back in 1981 Indiana Jones famously said: "It's not the years—it's the mileage."
For EV batteries and vehicles we can reverse that: "It's not the mileage—it's the years."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7khLBcH-2A
You can almost certainly drive as many miles as you want in an EV each year, but after 10-15 years the batteries are junk. Telsa has been talking for a while about their next generation "million-mile battery," but notice they don't say that it's 15-year battery. Even someone who drives 50,000 miles a year isn't going to make it anywhere close to million miles in 15 years.

This is one advantage a good gas car has over an electric car. If it's well-maintained, a 22-year old gas car can be fine. But a 22-year old EV, unless you've spent $10-20k replacing the batteries, is going to be yard sculpture.

Another advantage that gas cars have over EVs is tire life. I usually get 50k to 60k out of my top-quality tires. Consumer Reports even says that my current tire, the Michelin CrossClimate2, might last as long as 80,000 miles according to their tests. But some EV owners say that they need to replace their tires every 30,000 miles or so. Over the life of the car that adds up, and eats into some of the money that you're saving on gas.

Do tire companies still honor their pro-rated warranties for EVs? Probably. But I wonder if at some point they'll reconsider as EVs start to take over.

ab348

The one commodity which never seems to be in short supply is Tesla hype.

sda

I don’t know if this is still a relatively common concern but I remember reading in more than one source that getting parts or service for a Tesla out of warranty can be an expensive and frustrating experience. Getting replacement parts seemed to be the greatest issue.

henryn

benjaminh said:

oldfarmer50 said:

....For people of modest means who could never afford a new EV, buying a used one (10+ years old) might be a gamble. I own a gas powered 22 year old car that runs fine. The reliability of a similarly aged EV is an unknown.

Back in 1981 Indiana Jones famously said: "It's not the years—it's the mileage."
For EV batteries and vehicles we can reverse that: "It's not the mileage—it's the years."

I'm sorry to break it to you, but you've got that completely backwards. For batteries, it is not years, it is the number of charge cycles.

https://www.inverse.com/innovation/tesla-battery-life-replacement-cost#:~:text=In April 2019, Musk claimed,500,000 miles or 1,500 cycles.

For the Tesla Model 3, released in 2017, the company’s warranty covers the first eight years or 100,000 miles on the entry-level model, whichever comes first. If the battery capacity during the warranty period falls below 70 percent, Tesla covers the necessary repairs.

In April 2019, Musk claimed on Twitter that the Model 3 drive unit and body are designed to last for a million miles. However, the current battery modules should last 300,000 to 500,000 miles or 1,500 cycles. That would mean the battery would require replacing once or twice over the vehicle’s lifetime.

A survey of 350 Tesla owners in Europe found that their cars dropped around five percent of their capacity after 50,000 miles before dropping much slower thereafter. The group extrapolated the data to claim they would have lost 20 percent of the original capacity after 500,000 miles.

I can tell you from personal experience, the lithium ion batteries used in my Ego string trimmer last about 4 years. The run time on a new battery is about 45 minutes, and that gradually diminishes. After roughly 4 years (+/- 160 to 200 charge cycles), the run time falls to about 10 or 15 minutes, and I replace the battery.