"There is no indication at all that the battery packs ever need to be replaced at any time. The software almost assures that for any 'normal' life of a vehicle that the batteries never need to be replaced."
My Civic Hybrid batteries come with an 8 year warranty. Most car owners keep their vehicles less than 5 years, so the batteries will still be covered when they trade or sell. It's a non-issue.
The hybrid battery critics remind me of the doomsday meteorologists who swore after Katrina that the next hurricane season would be even WORSE -- lots of super-storms hitting the gulf coast and eastern seabord, wreaking bibilical destruction, misery, plague, cats mating with dogs .......
Well, here it is the end of 2007, and we're still waiting for all those hurricanes. And years from now, we'll still be waiting for hybrid batteries to fail en masse. Another non-issue.
"Oh I saw a local dealer had a Prius for under $21K yesterday. They must be discounting them, having a hard time moving them with the tax credit gone."
Dealers are selling pickups for $6,000 below msrp and sedans at $3,000 discounts. And we're all familiar with the "$22K Impala" selling for $16K. They never had a tax credit to begin with, so what's their excuse?
"Oh I saw a local dealer had a Prius for under $21K yesterday. They must be discounting them, having a hard time moving them with the tax credit gone"
Actually, I believe it's the opposite: selling such a high volume of them now, dealers are able and willing to offer the same type of discounts on them as they do the rest of the models. They can do the "1 at this price" thing and offer $2000 off MSRP, or they can offer $1000 off MSRP for all Prius in stock, that type of thing.
It's been funny watching the hybrid discussions at Edmunds over the last five years. There are two distinct camps, far apart in perspective: those that fear the technological innovation of it and assume that anything newfangled must fail with catastrophic cost to the owner well before he/she is done with it, and those that think hybrids are saving the world. Sure there is a spectrum of people in between, but more than many discussions here I find posters at one extreme of the spectrum or the other.
I think you probably have nothing to fear in terms of longevity by getting one of the Toyota (and Ford, and now Nissan) hybrids, if only because they are designed to utilize the battery pack so little that they will never get the chance to wear out. OTOH, that's what I don't like about them: they add lots of weight for a system they barely utilize, and if they just spent the HSD money on lightening the car and improving fuel economy from their smaller engines, they could achieve the same gains I am sure.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
My Civic Hybrid batteries come with an 8 year warranty. Most car owners keep their vehicles less than 5 years, so the batteries will still be covered when they trade or sell. It's a non-issue.
I believe it is 8 years or 80k miles. It will not be an issue if it is still under warranty, maybe. There are those that have posted here with Insight batteries that have deteriorated past being useful. Honda refused to replace them under warranty. At what point is the battery NO GOOD? Can the automaker claim the battery is still good when it reaches 75% or 85% of its original capacity? I have NiMH batteries on laptops that last 20 minutes. When new they lasted 3+ hours. One is less than a year old. Batteries are a crap shoot at best. You should be thankful the EPA and CARB have mandated the long warranty. The key is getting the automakers to be honest when the battery has deteriorated. A good signal would be a drop in gas mileage.
It's 8 yrs or 100,000 mi in ther rest of the country ( PA is a little longer I believe ). Again I recognize your fears of catastrophic failures but in fact they are just not happening. Consumer Reports typically takes a skeptical view on the hybrids but it does rank the Prius as the top rated midsizer in reliability. Many now are reaching the 100K mark after 6-7 yrs. In 3-5 more years these vehicles like any other midsizer will be worth about $500.
The rest of the risks you note about the sensors and ECUs is inherent in any new vehicle today.
First everything fails with time. In a battery it is the plates. The batteries, motors ... in the hybrid system will need to be replaced. The more systems on any vehicle the higher the repair costs will be long-term. These add to the probability that you will have an expensive repair sooner than later. If these hybrid systems are so dependable then the manufacturers should have no trouble offering a Chrysler-like lifetime warranty?? Free replacements of any failed hybrid system part? I don't see that offered; must be a reason.
Of course everything does have a limit. But reality has to be considered. At 12 yrs old no nomal midsizer with 175,000 -200,000 miles is 'worth' more than $1000...most of them are worth NOTHING. What resale value can you possibly be discussiing at that time? If a vehicle doesn't work it's $500 or it's ZERO.
Second higher eventual repair costs do affect resale value. In the past I have been intersted in some used luxury vehicles, but then realized they have active suspensions and such and want no part of that in a 6-7 year old vehicle.
Again resale value. At 12 yrs and about 200K miles there is no resale value, it's a flat $500 for whatever vehicle your're discussing. As the Prius' and HCH's reach that period we'll see what they're worth. If gas is $7 a gallon in 2012 which is likely then the resale price might be stupidly high.
Higher repair costs: This is innaccurate because the hybrids actually have fewer repair/maintenance costs than a normal ICE.
The only way I see a hybrid as being a financial benefit is if - 1) you can get a similat discount off MSRP as with a regular car, 2) if you can a brand that still gets you a tax credit of over $2,000, 3) if you sell the vehicle while still under warranty, preferably by 6+ months, and 4) hope that gas prices don't decrease killing any used-car demand.
If you need me to go through the math from the equation I positted above I can. The reality is that every hybrid on the road saves money vs it's equivalent ICE counterpart for 1,2,3,5,7,10 or 15 yrs. Every one does. As Steve did above you can pick any two NEW vehicles that are similar and any time period and I can plug in the numbers.
In summary I rather take my chances on a vehicle that might need a new engine or trans.; rather than a new engine, trans, or hybrid-system repair.
Oh I saw a local dealer had a Prius for under $21K yesterday. They must be discounting them, having a hard time moving them with the tax credit gone. Now if they had $3K tax credit I could see getting one, and driving it for a year or 2 then selling it for $17K or so
One out of every three visitors to our store wants to drive/consider buying a hybrid. The sales figures tell the story. The tax credits have been reduced since 10-1 of last year and now they're gone. Sales this year are UP 50%..go figure.
One out of every three visitors to our store wants to drive/consider buying a hybrid.
Isn't that a drop from a year ago, when 50%+ buyers would consider a hybrid?
Again resale value. At 12 yrs and about 200K miles there is no resale value,
I don't think anyone would argue that the above vehicle is not used up and worthless. What about the 5 year old hybrid with 95k miles and high resale value?
This is inaccurate because the hybrids actually have fewer repair/maintenance costs than a normal ICE.
I don't think you can back that up with facts. The hybrids have more systems to fail and more parts. Just because CR has not gotten a clear picture of the cost of repair on hybrids does not make them less expensive to maintain than an ICE only equivelant.
I don't see Toyota dealers in the year 2015 being particularly anxious or well-equipped to fix a 2005 Prius's electronic control systems and I don't see indepedent shops doing this kind of work at all.
So with or without battery failure, old hybrids are going to be up the creek.
Whereas an old 2005 Toyota Corolla might be patched up with wire and string, an old hybrid probably won't be in the year 2015, or even 2012.
Higher repair costs: This is inaccurate because the hybrids actually have fewer repair/maintenance costs than a normal ICE.
Sorry but that does not pass the sniff test. Of course there are more things that can go wrong with a hybrid vs a normal ICE car. Why? Because the hybridISan ICE car with extra batteries, re-charging equipment, etc... You can't honestly believe that a Civic hybrid will, inherently, have the same or better reliability as a regular Civic over the long term. That makes no sense at all. You have everything that can go wrong with an ICE and add on top of that everything that can go wrong with the hybrid system.
I am not saying or implying that a hybrid is not a reliable car. I am just saying that, logically, the hybrid car can't be as reliable as the ICE version of the same car. It is like comparing two refrigerators. They are identical except that one model has the ice cube maker, chilled water dispenser, small LCD display and mini TV in the doors. You can't tell me with a straight face that the jazzed up one is going to be more reliable overall.
To quote Scotty from Star Trek "The more complicated the plumbing, the easier it is to gum up the works." Or something like that...
If I was getting a hybrid, I would lease not buy. No way I would want to be stuck with the possible disposal hassles associated with a battery that size. Junkyards may stop taking them as they may be classified as hazardous waste at some point.
I think the hybrids are the start of redefining what an auto is. Its a new world. Any comparisons or predictions include unproven assumptions. I have a one year old TCH with 9400 miles on it. It runs great..averages 34 mpg. I plan to keep it beyond its warranty. I'm betting it'll still run fine . Great post from kdhspyder.
I don't see Toyota dealers in the year 2015 being particularly anxious or well-equipped to fix a 2005 Prius's electronic control systems and I don't see indepedent shops doing this kind of work at all.
So with or without battery failure, old hybrids are going to be up the creek.
Whereas an old 2005 Toyota Corolla might be patched up with wire and string, an old hybrid probably won't be in the year 2015, or even 2012
C'monnnn. In 2012 a 2005 will still be under warranty for the hybrid system but not for the electronics. Why wouldn't they fix it if Toyota or the customer is paying the bill. Now if you're talking specifically about the ECUs on a 2005 then yes these are out of warranty - on every vehicle in the US - by 2012. Yes they are very very expensive but that's a pitfall of every new vehicle being sold now. The current Gen Corolla probably does have fewer sensors but the next Gen will have the full complement just like every other vehicle. This has nothing to do with a vehicle being a hybrid or not.
In the first sentence you are positing a battery failure right at the 10 yr mark ( which may or may not be covered by warranty ). Why wouldn't a Toyota store fix it if requested?
There are a bunch of vehicles on the road now with over 100K miles or very close to it. Are we hearing about massive failures? Nooope. It's more fear of the unknown than any real fear based on real data.
gagrice: Shame on the sales people in SD..
Putting any midsized vehicle next to a Prius or TCH and comparing the required services is very instructive. oil/filters every 5K mi or 6 mos rotate the tires inspect the brakes
That's it done. There is nothing else to do except at your descretion. You might want to change the airfilters more or less, wipers, tires, brakes...ahhh the hidden savings. Most owners are reporting that the brakes are lasting well well above 100,000 miles. My friend now at 170,000 miles in 46 months finally chaged his original brakes at 150,000 miles - and he didn't have to. He did it because he's going to take his '04 to 250,000 miles when the next Gen arrives.
There is a transaxel coolant flush/replacement at about 100,000 and that is really it. finished.
The current Gen Corolla probably does have fewer sensors but the next Gen will have the full complement just like every other vehicle.
I am hoping my new Sequoia has less crap than the new version. I have already had to take it back to get the tire sensors adjusted. It all adds up to my premise that we are getting into vehicles with planned obsolescence built in. We are buying into the extra doodads being important. When the life of the vehicle is being shortened. I would like to think that this Sequoia will still be in good condition in the year 2025. I am not really expecting it to be. I have a feeling our 1990 LS400 will even out last it.
I am not saying or implying that a hybrid is not a reliable car. I am just saying that, logically, the hybrid car can't be as reliable as the ICE version of the same car. It is like comparing two refrigerators. They are identical except that one model has the ice cube maker, chilled water dispenser, small LCD display and mini TV in the doors. You can't tell me with a straight face that the jazzed up one is going to be more reliable overall.
OK I respect your opinion. But actually you have no data to support it. The data is however falling on the other side. See the post just above. The hybrids actually save maintenance, less brake work. Repairs and failures do you or anyone here have hard data to support that the hybrid systems are more prone to failures? No again the data coming to CR and True Delta is the opposite.
I was thinking that in the past as new techology developed in cars, that after warranty the independent shops would be taking on the older technology, and the dealers techs would all be back in school for the new tech.
But now we have two new developments. One, the technology is changing faster and faster, so that even the dealers' techs are racing to keep up, and two, the technology is getting more and more complex, so that the independents can't keep up.
I definitely see a "knowledge gap" opening up in hybrid repair, especially in the electronics part of it.
I think a lot of old hybrid owners are going to be left in the cold with obsolete models or very iffy dealer success rates on repairing the old stuff.
I don't think the old hybrids will "fail" at any abnormal rate, but I think techs will fail to fix them at an abnormal rate, is my point.
OK I respect your opinion. But actually you have no data to support it.
First, it is a disingenuous argument to ask a casual reader to provide data that only a few people would typically have access to as part of their work. Chuckhoy presented a logical argument that more parts to a base design will cause more problems. It is a simple probability calculation, that with more parts you have more opportunity to have a part out-of-tolerance, cracked, or installed incorrectly. And even if their are no faults at manufacture every part has a mean-time-between-failure (MTBF) which increases the chance of a failure at any given time, a sthe number of parts increase in a system.
Its no different then the fact that the more you drive the higher the probability you'll be in an accident. any given year.
To buy a hybrid, or not to buy a hybrid? While your busy debating practical economics and reliability issues, the world is changing around you. Personally, I'm saving my pennies for one of these puppies and the car to go with it. Of course I'll never be that rich, but maybe my grandkids will. link title
If you're going to do that, you may as well go all the way and run your whole house on some sort of similar system.
One thing about electronic parts - assuming you can reach them, they are pretty easy to swap out. I can't solder worth a flip but I can just about build a desktop computer in the dark, and lots of techs seem to just swap out parts until the gizmo works again.
Any other ideas for beating the high cost of gas with current technology?
Telecommuting has worked for me for 20 years (remember fax machines?).
The hybrid doomsday chorus continues. The Prius has been on the road for a decade now. The Honda Insight for 8 years. We're still waiting for that massive worldwide failure. Meanwhile some of us are getting 52 mpg despite the falling sky:
But here's good news for all you techno-phobes; Honda has just announced the release of the FCX hydrogen powered automobile. It has a range of 270 miles, costs $600/month to lease (including tax and insurance) and it's only emission is water.
So, let the whining commence!
After all, everyone knows that it'll never work for the average driver because you can't drive it non-stop to the tip of South America. Plus, if we quit buying gasoline, then all the oil industry workers will be out of jobs, which means massive unemployment and a worldwide economic recession. Then the Arabs will launch terrorist attacks to punish us for not buying their oil. Cats will mate with dogs. It'll be the end of the world as we know it.
Really, we should just keep everything the same as it ever was ..... and keep expecting different results!
There are two distinct camps, far apart in perspective: those that fear the technological innovation of it and assume that anything newfangled must fail with catastrophic cost to the owner well before he/she is done with it, and those that think hybrids are saving the world
Mostly the pro-hybrid group consists of the small group that own or are preparing to buy a hybrid. This is a few % at best of the new car market. A vocal minority. I'm not anti-hybrid, I'm a realist; and look at the negatives, which the pros tend to gloss over with their "rose colored sunglasses".
There are definite risks to whether a hybrid makes economic sense - the evaluation I've seen doesn't consider the time-value-of-money correctly for 1 thing - i.e. money paid at purchase is more valuable then the same amount of $ paid out a little at a time over years, for gas.
The depreciation I would worry about in purchasing a hybrid isn't at 150,000 or 200,000 miles when most cars are worth about the same - $1,000; the point of depreciation where hybrids would hurt would be in the 50K - 100K mile range.
The more technologically advanced something is the harder it will be to maintain and repair. Try and get a part for a 1st generation Dell Pentium computer. Or if battery technology on new hybrids change; how long will the old batteries be made.
I work for a manufacturing company that makes machines and we have a policy that a model will be sold for 5 years or so, then we supply parts and service for 8 years or so, stocking some parts, but then we can't those parts or it's not economical - so customers are given a "last-call for alcohol" to buy spares or supplies. The reason partly may be the machine used a 486-processor on the board, and the 486-processor is no longer made, so the board isn't continued, and therefore once the supply of boards goes - sorry (buy a new machine).
At least with a regular ICE vehicle if the engine goes at 150K miles, one has the easy option (if you still like the car) of ordering the GMGoodwrench catalog and ordering a new engine and having it dropped in. Fairly simple - I've actually seen people swap their engine out on a brand new vehicle.
The Prius has been on the road for a decade now. The Honda Insight for 8 years. We're still waiting for that massive worldwide failure.
Since you repeated this again, i have to ask where this "massive" number of older hybrids came from. Since Toyota and Honda just hit 60K units in the last year or so, and most of those are the newer generation Prius, how many hybrids are 5 years or older? maybe 20K? 30K? That is not a massive number. If I see an older generation Prius or an Insight once a year that's it.
As far as that hydrogen car goes it is of little use to me since there is no hydrogen-station, and there is no natural gas lines around here (as in that link about the home station). Maybe if they make a an oil or propane-fired hydrogen generator?
Geeze, wouldn't it be ironic if worn-out Priuses end up being a bigger threat to the environment than ICE cars because of the carcinogenic chemicals in the batteries? Maybe people won't want to go through the expense of properly disposing of an old Prius and they'll dump them into lakes and rivers causing an environmental hazard?
I think the Prius' decent reliability thus far is due more to Toyota than to the technology per se. I'm sure Toyota isn't making much money on these things but they sure stole the thunder in Green Marketing.
I think the people converting Prius' to plug-ins are asking for big trouble.
You said that tongue in cheek right? Compared to how many cars on the road in the U.S. that's significant? Something that would make the nightly news?
For the average person in the U.S. the question of whether or not they want a hybrid or hydrogen powered vehicle is academic, as they don't exist in any numbers. Maybe there's 500K in existence if you count all the mild-hybrids being made this year? out of a fleet of 100+M vehicles?
The U.S. auto industry and our fleet is like a huge, huge oil-tanker that has quite a bit of momentum and is not going to turn quickly at all, even if people start rowing one way.
Mostly what is on the drawing-board, and more importantly what the factories are tooled for, are cars starting around 3000Lb, and running up to the 6,000 Lb hybrid Tahoe. The cars are still being built for increased size and power.
Personally I wouldn't mind a car like the '88 Honda CRX that I had. Crank windows and such, but with AC and a stereo. Give me an updated 1.5 liter ICE with direct injection. I used to get 40mpg with an auto. trans., so I'd guess with modern tech. I should get 45-50 mpg with a 6-speed. While I still might consider an '09 Fit, I might want soemthing more fun and could look at a new V-8 Pontiac G8, that has DOD, 360hp and still uses 87-octane. That is what is being marketed to me - sports or performance cars that get decent mileage. A new EVO X sounds nice too.
I'm willing to sacrifice some mpg for a larger, sportier car. Now if I had a 30+ mile each-way commute, maybe not.
Chuckhoy presented a logical argument that more parts to a base design will cause more problems. It is a simple probability calculation, that with more parts you have more opportunity to have a part out-of-tolerance, cracked, or installed incorrectly
It would seem to make sense, except that the data that is available now is all falling in favor of the hybrids actually being more reliable than a normal vehicle.
So a new discussion has to be opened...'Why are hybrids more reliable than a traditional ICE vehicle?'
Complexity from a sheer number of parts would seem to argue against it, I agree.
However these parts may be in systems that are basically far more reliable than an ICE. The electric motors require no service whatsoever at any time and seem to be ultra reliable. The transaxel replaced the traditional transmission - with fewer parts. The batteries might seem to be the weak link but Toyota and all the others have seemingly solved the problems with a strict control of the SOC. The Batteries appear to be as reliable or even more reliable than the ICE. More data is needed is needed to confirm this. The Inverter.
That's it, along with ECUs and wiring, that differentiates the hybrids from the ICEs.
Again I respect the opinion but it's only an opinion without supporting facts.
There are definite risks to whether a hybrid makes economic sense - the evaluation I've seen doesn't consider the time-value-of-money correctly for 1 thing - i.e. money paid at purchase is more valuable then the same amount of $ paid out a little at a time over years, for gas.
The depreciation I would worry about in purchasing a hybrid isn't at 150,000 or 200,000 miles when most cars are worth about the same - $1,000; the point of depreciation where hybrids would hurt would be in the 50K - 100K mile range.
The time value of money is a good point but it's negligible. The 'premium' at purchase across the board is about $3000-$4000. If one were to pay for the vehicle in cash that 6% for 5 yrs on $4000 would amount to more than $1300. However the general population doesn't pay cash. They finance. So this whole issue is moot for that group. This group just has a monthly transportation expense which is the sum of... Vehicle Fuel Maintenance Insurance
Concerning depreciation, I assume in all my calculations that it's the same for all vehicles. You worry that it might be greater for hybrids, but the data seems to indicate that the depreciation is less for hybrids than a tradiional ICE.
From Edmunds here.. 2004 Matrix XR with as much safety equipment as possible sold for about $20000 when new, Acording to Edmunds now its value at trade is ~$8400 ( 42% of MSRP ). 2004 Prius Pckg 4 with all available safety equipment ( more than the Matrix ) sold for about $25000 when new. According to Edmunds now its value is $11700 ( 46% of MSRP ).. Essentially $3700 of that $5000 purchase premium in 2004 would be recovered at time of trade in and the 'net' purchase premium for 5 yrs is only ~$1300. The data seems to support the fact that hybrids are depreciating slower than ICE's.
Geeze, wouldn't it be ironic if worn-out Priuses end up being a bigger threat to the environment than ICE cars because of the carcinogenic chemicals in the batteries? Maybe people won't want to go through the expense of properly disposing of an old Prius and they'll dump them into lakes and rivers causing an environmental hazard?
Did you post this as a joke or are you serious? Environmental hazard? Carcinogenic? C'mon car enthusiast bring yourself into this century.
You do know that you can disassemble a NiMH battery on your front lawn with no hazardous waste involved at all. You did know that right? NiMH batteries are considered 'green technology' as opposed to the nasty ol' lead acid ones in all vehicles. It's all on the websites of the various battery makers such as Cobasys ( GM's NiMH battery supplier ). The hybrids actually use smaller 12v lead acid batteries than say an '88 Park Ave or 2004 Camry. So infact they have less of a risk of polluting than the older ones. Helloooo 21st Century.
I have been reading about a new Mini that will be coming to the US that averages over 70 miles per gallon. Since my current Sport Ute averages 17 MPG that would be cutting my fuel bill by approximately 60%
If oil is traded in Euros in the next few years then my guess would be that gas would cost us $6.00 per gallon.
The shifting winds in Washington also are setting the stage to tax us more on gas so baring any common sense the price level looks to rise.
The market if allowed to function should produce some very exciting alternative as discussed above and some we cant even imagine. It should be a very exciting future with amazing innovation.
About 38.7 million Americans, 1.5 percent more than last year, will travel 50 miles or more from home this holiday, AAA estimated, based on a national Web survey of 2,200 adults.
"Thanksgiving is traditionally a time for family gatherings, and higher gas will not discourage Americans from reconnecting with their loved ones," Robert L. Darbelnet, President and CEO of AAA, said in a release.
Some 31.2 million vacationers will travel by car, up 1.3 percent from last year, AAA said. Another 4.7 million will go by air, up 2.2 percent. The rest will take trains, buses or other modes of transportation.
Average U.S. retail gasoline prices are already closing in on the record $3.22 posted last May, with the national average at $3.11 on Thursday, about 90 cents higher than what the motor fuel was fetching last year, according to AAA's daily survey.
"This is the first time that we have seen gas prices tipping over $3.00 a gallon in November," said AAA's Darbelnet. "A year ago, prices were in the range of $2.20 a gallon, so this year travelers are really feeling the pinch."
Hey, everyone keeps talking like hybrids are some new thing with an unproven track record, so I thought I would just toss this in: Toyota has already sold well over a million hybrid vehicles worldwide. Now more than 5 years ago, most of those sales were outside the U.S., but here it is in black and white if you don't believe me.
There is a large large body of evidence in the form of real-world cars owned by people in the real world that there is nothing to fear regarding longevity if you go for a hybrid purchase. At least not if it's a Toyota, and the same could be true for other companies, I just remember the Toyota headline because of the nice round 1 million figure.
However, I tend to think like kernick, I believe it was: I would like to see them work on getting all the pork out of the modern fleet, and even slowing down the non-sport models a little. Drop those curb weights by at least half a ton in most cases, a whole ton in some, then make those engines smaller and as efficient as can be, and you would achieve much of the progress in fuel efficiency that has been made by hybrids, only for less cost.
As for hybrids, I would like to see models with a cheaper entry price, and ones not loaded to the gills with options so as to boost up the price (like all the current Toyota hybrids are for instance). Honda is said to be readying just such a model for the road no later than 2010, with a $15-18K base price. Hooray. I might even be interested if they put a stick shift in it as well...
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
the crazy gas gage starts at 7/8 at fillup and hits 1/2 tank in 130 miles. I was stopping at about 3/8 tank at about 200 miles because I only owned the truck for 2 days and didn't know it would go 200 miles on the last 1/4 tank. I still think it has only 14-16 gal tank
NiMH batteries are easy to recycle and companies out there already offer money for them. With a bounty on used batteries I doubt many of them will be thrown away.
Anyone ever seen a gen I Prius in a junk yard? I haven't been to one in a while. I should go, I always find something.
Cars end up in junk yards for two reasons. One of course, a wreck or similar misfortune, and the subset of One, that the car is not worth fixing for some other reason.
Given that all cars have wrecks, and given that once the resale value of a gen 1 Prius is low enough (eventually), sure we'll see them in junkyards just like every other car--just as soon as the engine or some expensive controller gives out. The price of gas pales next to facing a huge expense on a high mileage car with dings and dents and smelly upholstery.
The time value of money is a good point but it's negligible. The 'premium' at purchase across the board is about $3000-$4000. If one were to pay for the vehicle in cash that 6% for 5 yrs on $4000 would amount to more than $1300. However the general population doesn't pay cash. They finance. So this whole issue is moot for that group.
Well the time value of money applies whether you pay cash, finance or lease. If you pay cash you are losing the potential gains you'd have of investing, we agree there. But when you lease or finance you are incurring the expense of paying the lender's time-value-of-money which happens to be the interest rate over the terms of the loan.
I do these sort of analyses for my company where the purchase price is a 1-time capital expense and the gasoline would be handled as an operating expense.
I've crunched the numbers on hybrids vs. a similar vehicle, and there's no general answer even assuming similar depreciation. The answer depends on how much tax-credit the brand gets, whether the hybrid is discounted from MSRP, discounts and rebates on the ICE model at any particular time, the price of gas and what you assume it will do, and how much you drive. So 1)the timing and 2) your assumptions and 3) personal driving needs can make the numbers go either way.
Let's agree to say it is close and leave it at that? A thousand $ or so either way on a $25K+ item (car+gas).
I know they recycle regular batteries. You aren't allowed to crush a car with batteries still in it. They strip 'em pretty clean. If you ever get a chance to visit a high-tech, up to date auto recycler, do it. It's quite interesting. Your Toyota might be shipped to New York harbor and then to Turkey, to be made into a teapot you'll buy on your next cruise over there!
I believe they did an episode of Dirty Jobs on auto recycling. They also have to worry about the old A/C systems and their freon, i.e. capture that rather than just release it in to the atmosphere.
I know one thing I'm doing to combat higher gas prices right NOW! I'm raising my rates for travel time by adding a modest fuel surcharge... that's .15 a mile (a bargain).
The lead in batteries is 100% recycled. If you do not throw them in the trash. Auto Zone will take them. Some places used to give a core charge for the old car batteries.
NiMH batteries is a whole different ball game. Some landfills charge you to dump them off. I have a bunch of bad NiMH and Li-Ion Laptop batteries in a box trying to find someone that will take them.
I've crunched the numbers on hybrids vs. a similar vehicle, and there's no general answer even assuming similar depreciation. The answer depends on how much tax-credit the brand gets, whether the hybrid is discounted from MSRP, discounts and rebates on the ICE model at any particular time, the price of gas and what you assume it will do, and how much you drive. So 1)the timing and 2) your assumptions and 3) personal driving needs can make the numbers go either way.
Let's agree to say it is close and leave it at that? A thousand $ or so either way on a $25K+ item (car+gas).
I'm a number cruncher also by education and in the past during business. Now it's an avocation. Yes I agree with all 3 ot your 'conditions'. The numbers can go either way.
I agree on 2 conditions, but I don't see gasoline going down, given historical charting. That last assumption,, of gas costs staying high, is a pretty safe one I think. At least the assumption of present prices. To say it will hit $4 or $5 is speculation, I agree.
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If he is like me, I start looking for a discount station when I get to half a tank of gas. It is also a good time for a potty stop.
My Civic Hybrid batteries come with an 8 year warranty. Most car owners keep their vehicles less than 5 years, so the batteries will still be covered when they trade or sell. It's a non-issue.
The hybrid battery critics remind me of the doomsday meteorologists who swore after Katrina that the next hurricane season would be even WORSE -- lots of super-storms hitting the gulf coast and eastern seabord, wreaking bibilical destruction, misery, plague, cats mating with dogs .......
Well, here it is the end of 2007, and we're still waiting for all those hurricanes. And years from now, we'll still be waiting for hybrid batteries to fail en masse. Another non-issue.
"Oh I saw a local dealer had a Prius for under $21K yesterday. They must be discounting them, having a hard time moving them with the tax credit gone."
Dealers are selling pickups for $6,000 below msrp and sedans at $3,000 discounts. And we're all familiar with the "$22K Impala" selling for $16K. They never had a tax credit to begin with, so what's their excuse?
Actually, I believe it's the opposite: selling such a high volume of them now, dealers are able and willing to offer the same type of discounts on them as they do the rest of the models. They can do the "1 at this price" thing and offer $2000 off MSRP, or they can offer $1000 off MSRP for all Prius in stock, that type of thing.
It's been funny watching the hybrid discussions at Edmunds over the last five years. There are two distinct camps, far apart in perspective: those that fear the technological innovation of it and assume that anything newfangled must fail with catastrophic cost to the owner well before he/she is done with it, and those that think hybrids are saving the world. Sure there is a spectrum of people in between, but more than many discussions here I find posters at one extreme of the spectrum or the other.
I think you probably have nothing to fear in terms of longevity by getting one of the Toyota (and Ford, and now Nissan) hybrids, if only because they are designed to utilize the battery pack so little that they will never get the chance to wear out. OTOH, that's what I don't like about them: they add lots of weight for a system they barely utilize, and if they just spent the HSD money on lightening the car and improving fuel economy from their smaller engines, they could achieve the same gains I am sure.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
I believe it is 8 years or 80k miles. It will not be an issue if it is still under warranty, maybe. There are those that have posted here with Insight batteries that have deteriorated past being useful. Honda refused to replace them under warranty. At what point is the battery NO GOOD? Can the automaker claim the battery is still good when it reaches 75% or 85% of its original capacity? I have NiMH batteries on laptops that last 20 minutes. When new they lasted 3+ hours. One is less than a year old. Batteries are a crap shoot at best. You should be thankful the EPA and CARB have mandated the long warranty. The key is getting the automakers to be honest when the battery has deteriorated. A good signal would be a drop in gas mileage.
Welcome to the Dark Side.
Hopefully, in a couple of years there will be many more diesel choices, particularly affordable ones.
The rest of the risks you note about the sensors and ECUs is inherent in any new vehicle today.
And let's face it, when Toyota flops, it's front page new, you hear about it.
Of course everything does have a limit. But reality has to be considered. At 12 yrs old no nomal midsizer with 175,000 -200,000 miles is 'worth' more than $1000...most of them are worth NOTHING. What resale value can you possibly be discussiing at that time? If a vehicle doesn't work it's $500 or it's ZERO.
Second higher eventual repair costs do affect resale value. In the past I have been intersted in some used luxury vehicles, but then realized they have active suspensions and such and want no part of that in a 6-7 year old vehicle.
Again resale value. At 12 yrs and about 200K miles there is no resale value, it's a flat $500 for whatever vehicle your're discussing. As the Prius' and HCH's reach that period we'll see what they're worth. If gas is $7 a gallon in 2012 which is likely then the resale price might be stupidly high.
Higher repair costs: This is innaccurate because the hybrids actually have fewer repair/maintenance costs than a normal ICE.
The only way I see a hybrid as being a financial benefit is if - 1) you can get a similat discount off MSRP as with a regular car, 2) if you can a brand that still gets you a tax credit of over $2,000, 3) if you sell the vehicle while still under warranty, preferably by 6+ months, and 4) hope that gas prices don't decrease killing any used-car demand.
If you need me to go through the math from the equation I positted above I can. The reality is that every hybrid on the road saves money vs it's equivalent ICE counterpart for 1,2,3,5,7,10 or 15 yrs. Every one does. As Steve did above you can pick any two NEW vehicles that are similar and any time period and I can plug in the numbers.
In summary I rather take my chances on a vehicle that might need a new engine or trans.; rather than a new engine, trans, or hybrid-system repair.
Oh I saw a local dealer had a Prius for under $21K yesterday. They must be discounting them, having a hard time moving them with the tax credit gone. Now if they had $3K tax credit I could see getting one, and driving it for a year or 2 then selling it for $17K or so
One out of every three visitors to our store wants to drive/consider buying a hybrid. The sales figures tell the story. The tax credits have been reduced since 10-1 of last year and now they're gone. Sales this year are UP 50%..go figure.
Sadly, that is TRUE!!
Isn't that a drop from a year ago, when 50%+ buyers would consider a hybrid?
Again resale value. At 12 yrs and about 200K miles there is no resale value,
I don't think anyone would argue that the above vehicle is not used up and worthless. What about the 5 year old hybrid with 95k miles and high resale value?
This is inaccurate because the hybrids actually have fewer repair/maintenance costs than a normal ICE.
I don't think you can back that up with facts. The hybrids have more systems to fail and more parts. Just because CR has not gotten a clear picture of the cost of repair on hybrids does not make them less expensive to maintain than an ICE only equivelant.
So with or without battery failure, old hybrids are going to be up the creek.
Whereas an old 2005 Toyota Corolla might be patched up with wire and string, an old hybrid probably won't be in the year 2015, or even 2012.
Sorry but that does not pass the sniff test. Of course there are more things that can go wrong with a hybrid vs a normal ICE car. Why? Because the hybrid IS an ICE car with extra batteries, re-charging equipment, etc... You can't honestly believe that a Civic hybrid will, inherently, have the same or better reliability as a regular Civic over the long term. That makes no sense at all. You have everything that can go wrong with an ICE and add on top of that everything that can go wrong with the hybrid system.
I am not saying or implying that a hybrid is not a reliable car. I am just saying that, logically, the hybrid car can't be as reliable as the ICE version of the same car. It is like comparing two refrigerators. They are identical except that one model has the ice cube maker, chilled water dispenser, small LCD display and mini TV in the doors. You can't tell me with a straight face that the jazzed up one is going to be more reliable overall.
To quote Scotty from Star Trek "The more complicated the plumbing, the easier it is to gum up the works." Or something like that...
Any comparisons or predictions include unproven assumptions.
I have a one year old TCH with 9400 miles on it. It runs great..averages 34 mpg.
I plan to keep it beyond its warranty. I'm betting it'll still run fine . Great post from kdhspyder.
That cuts both ways amigo.
So with or without battery failure, old hybrids are going to be up the creek.
Whereas an old 2005 Toyota Corolla might be patched up with wire and string, an old hybrid probably won't be in the year 2015, or even 2012
C'monnnn. In 2012 a 2005 will still be under warranty for the hybrid system but not for the electronics. Why wouldn't they fix it if Toyota or the customer is paying the bill.
Now if you're talking specifically about the ECUs on a 2005 then yes these are out of warranty - on every vehicle in the US - by 2012. Yes they are very very expensive but that's a pitfall of every new vehicle being sold now. The current Gen Corolla probably does have fewer sensors but the next Gen will have the full complement just like every other vehicle. This has nothing to do with a vehicle being a hybrid or not.
In the first sentence you are positing a battery failure right at the 10 yr mark ( which may or may not be covered by warranty ). Why wouldn't a Toyota store fix it if requested?
There are a bunch of vehicles on the road now with over 100K miles or very close to it. Are we hearing about massive failures? Nooope. It's more fear of the unknown than any real fear based on real data.
gagrice: Shame on the sales people in SD..
Putting any midsized vehicle next to a Prius or TCH and comparing the required services is very instructive.
oil/filters every 5K mi or 6 mos
rotate the tires
inspect the brakes
That's it done. There is nothing else to do except at your descretion. You might want to change the airfilters more or less, wipers, tires, brakes...ahhh the hidden savings. Most owners are reporting that the brakes are lasting well well above 100,000 miles. My friend now at 170,000 miles in 46 months finally chaged his original brakes at 150,000 miles - and he didn't have to. He did it because he's going to take his '04 to 250,000 miles when the next Gen arrives.
There is a transaxel coolant flush/replacement at about 100,000 and that is really it. finished.
I am hoping my new Sequoia has less crap than the new version. I have already had to take it back to get the tire sensors adjusted. It all adds up to my premise that we are getting into vehicles with planned obsolescence built in. We are buying into the extra doodads being important. When the life of the vehicle is being shortened. I would like to think that this Sequoia will still be in good condition in the year 2025. I am not really expecting it to be. I have a feeling our 1990 LS400 will even out last it.
OK I respect your opinion. But actually you have no data to support it. The data is however falling on the other side. See the post just above. The hybrids actually save maintenance, less brake work. Repairs and failures do you or anyone here have hard data to support that the hybrid systems are more prone to failures? No again the data coming to CR and True Delta is the opposite.
But now we have two new developments. One, the technology is changing faster and faster, so that even the dealers' techs are racing to keep up, and two, the technology is getting more and more complex, so that the independents can't keep up.
I definitely see a "knowledge gap" opening up in hybrid repair, especially in the electronics part of it.
I think a lot of old hybrid owners are going to be left in the cold with obsolete models or very iffy dealer success rates on repairing the old stuff.
I don't think the old hybrids will "fail" at any abnormal rate, but I think techs will fail to fix them at an abnormal rate, is my point.
First, it is a disingenuous argument to ask a casual reader to provide data that only a few people would typically have access to as part of their work. Chuckhoy presented a logical argument that more parts to a base design will cause more problems. It is a simple probability calculation, that with more parts you have more opportunity to have a part out-of-tolerance, cracked, or installed incorrectly. And even if their are no faults at manufacture every part has a mean-time-between-failure (MTBF) which increases the chance of a failure at any given time, a sthe number of parts increase in a system.
Its no different then the fact that the more you drive the higher the probability you'll be in an accident. any given year.
Of course I'll never be that rich, but maybe my grandkids will.
link title
One thing about electronic parts - assuming you can reach them, they are pretty easy to swap out. I can't solder worth a flip but I can just about build a desktop computer in the dark, and lots of techs seem to just swap out parts until the gizmo works again.
Any other ideas for beating the high cost of gas with current technology?
Telecommuting has worked for me for 20 years (remember fax machines?).
http://www.elementownersclub.com/forums/showthread.php?t=40031
But here's good news for all you techno-phobes; Honda has just announced the release of the FCX hydrogen powered automobile. It has a range of 270 miles, costs $600/month to lease (including tax and insurance) and it's only emission is water.
So, let the whining commence!
After all, everyone knows that it'll never work for the average driver because you can't drive it non-stop to the tip of South America. Plus, if we quit buying gasoline, then all the oil industry workers will be out of jobs, which means massive unemployment and a worldwide economic recession. Then the Arabs will launch terrorist attacks to punish us for not buying their oil. Cats will mate with dogs. It'll be the end of the world as we know it.
Really, we should just keep everything the same as it ever was ..... and keep expecting different results!
Mostly the pro-hybrid group consists of the small group that own or are preparing to buy a hybrid. This is a few % at best of the new car market. A vocal minority. I'm not anti-hybrid, I'm a realist; and look at the negatives, which the pros tend to gloss over with their "rose colored sunglasses".
There are definite risks to whether a hybrid makes economic sense - the evaluation I've seen doesn't consider the time-value-of-money correctly for 1 thing - i.e. money paid at purchase is more valuable then the same amount of $ paid out a little at a time over years, for gas.
The depreciation I would worry about in purchasing a hybrid isn't at 150,000 or 200,000 miles when most cars are worth about the same - $1,000; the point of depreciation where hybrids would hurt would be in the 50K - 100K mile range.
The more technologically advanced something is the harder it will be to maintain and repair. Try and get a part for a 1st generation Dell Pentium computer. Or if battery technology on new hybrids change; how long will the old batteries be made.
I work for a manufacturing company that makes machines and we have a policy that a model will be sold for 5 years or so, then we supply parts and service for 8 years or so, stocking some parts, but then we can't those parts or it's not economical - so customers are given a "last-call for alcohol" to buy spares or supplies. The reason partly may be the machine used a 486-processor on the board, and the 486-processor is no longer made, so the board isn't continued, and therefore once the supply of boards goes - sorry (buy a new machine).
At least with a regular ICE vehicle if the engine goes at 150K miles, one has the easy option (if you still like the car) of ordering the GMGoodwrench catalog and ordering a new engine and having it dropped in. Fairly simple - I've actually seen people swap their engine out on a brand new vehicle.
Whereas an old 2005 Toyota Corolla might be patched up with wire and string, an old hybrid probably won't be in the year 2015, or even 2012.
I respectfully disagree.
An example is best: look at early OnStar systems. The analog ones.
You are screwed TODAY. Now. Not 10 years from now, right now.
Can one really expect Toyota to stock a spare ECU at a dealer for a 10 year old car?
You are up the creek with a 3 year old OnStar equipped vehicle today, already.
Same for GPS Navigation. You think they'll keep making updated map DVDs once these are 10 years old?
Up the creek!
RE: "Technophobes"
Ah, I was waiting for that leafy vegetable to be thrown on stage.
As if slavish devotion to every new gadget had a happy ending?
Ask all the iDrive "lovers" out there :P
Since you repeated this again, i have to ask where this "massive" number of older hybrids came from. Since Toyota and Honda just hit 60K units in the last year or so, and most of those are the newer generation Prius, how many hybrids are 5 years or older? maybe 20K? 30K? That is not a massive number. If I see an older generation Prius or an Insight once a year that's it.
As far as that hydrogen car goes it is of little use to me since there is no hydrogen-station, and there is no natural gas lines around here (as in that link about the home station). Maybe if they make a an oil or propane-fired hydrogen generator?
I bet you notice 12 Coopers per day.
They just stand out more.
I think the people converting Prius' to plug-ins are asking for big trouble.
You said that tongue in cheek right? Compared to how many cars on the road in the U.S. that's significant? Something that would make the nightly news?
For the average person in the U.S. the question of whether or not they want a hybrid or hydrogen powered vehicle is academic, as they don't exist in any numbers. Maybe there's 500K in existence if you count all the mild-hybrids being made this year? out of a fleet of 100+M vehicles?
The U.S. auto industry and our fleet is like a huge, huge oil-tanker that has quite a bit of momentum and is not going to turn quickly at all, even if people start rowing one way.
Mostly what is on the drawing-board, and more importantly what the factories are tooled for, are cars starting around 3000Lb, and running up to the 6,000 Lb hybrid Tahoe. The cars are still being built for increased size and power.
Personally I wouldn't mind a car like the '88 Honda CRX that I had. Crank windows and such, but with AC and a stereo. Give me an updated 1.5 liter ICE with direct injection. I used to get 40mpg with an auto. trans., so I'd guess with modern tech. I should get 45-50 mpg with a 6-speed. While I still might consider an '09 Fit, I might want soemthing more fun and could look at a new V-8 Pontiac G8, that has DOD, 360hp and still uses 87-octane. That is what is being marketed to me - sports or performance cars that get decent mileage. A new EVO X sounds nice too.
I'm willing to sacrifice some mpg for a larger, sportier car. Now if I had a 30+ mile each-way commute, maybe not.
It would seem to make sense, except that the data that is available now is all falling in favor of the hybrids actually being more reliable than a normal vehicle.
So a new discussion has to be opened...'Why are hybrids more reliable than a traditional ICE vehicle?'
Complexity from a sheer number of parts would seem to argue against it, I agree.
However these parts may be in systems that are basically far more reliable than an ICE.
The electric motors require no service whatsoever at any time and seem to be ultra reliable.
The transaxel replaced the traditional transmission - with fewer parts.
The batteries might seem to be the weak link but Toyota and all the others have seemingly solved the problems with a strict control of the SOC. The Batteries appear to be as reliable or even more reliable than the ICE. More data is needed is needed to confirm this.
The Inverter.
That's it, along with ECUs and wiring, that differentiates the hybrids from the ICEs.
Again I respect the opinion but it's only an opinion without supporting facts.
The depreciation I would worry about in purchasing a hybrid isn't at 150,000 or 200,000 miles when most cars are worth about the same - $1,000; the point of depreciation where hybrids would hurt would be in the 50K - 100K mile range.
The time value of money is a good point but it's negligible. The 'premium' at purchase across the board is about $3000-$4000. If one were to pay for the vehicle in cash that 6% for 5 yrs on $4000 would amount to more than $1300. However the general population doesn't pay cash. They finance. So this whole issue is moot for that group. This group just has a monthly transportation expense which is the sum of...
Vehicle
Fuel
Maintenance
Insurance
Concerning depreciation, I assume in all my calculations that it's the same for all vehicles. You worry that it might be greater for hybrids, but the data seems to indicate that the depreciation is less for hybrids than a tradiional ICE.
From Edmunds here..
2004 Matrix XR with as much safety equipment as possible sold for about $20000 when new, Acording to Edmunds now its value at trade is ~$8400 ( 42% of MSRP ).
2004 Prius Pckg 4 with all available safety equipment ( more than the Matrix ) sold for about $25000 when new. According to Edmunds now its value is $11700 ( 46% of MSRP ).. Essentially $3700 of that $5000 purchase premium in 2004 would be recovered at time of trade in and the 'net' purchase premium for 5 yrs is only ~$1300. The data seems to support the fact that hybrids are depreciating slower than ICE's.
Did you post this as a joke or are you serious? Environmental hazard? Carcinogenic? C'mon car enthusiast bring yourself into this century.
You do know that you can disassemble a NiMH battery on your front lawn with no hazardous waste involved at all. You did know that right? NiMH batteries are considered 'green technology' as opposed to the nasty ol' lead acid ones in all vehicles. It's all on the websites of the various battery makers such as Cobasys ( GM's NiMH battery supplier ). The hybrids actually use smaller 12v lead acid batteries than say an '88 Park Ave or 2004 Camry. So infact they have less of a risk of polluting than the older ones. Helloooo 21st Century.
If oil is traded in Euros in the next few years then my guess would be that gas would cost us $6.00 per gallon.
The shifting winds in Washington also are setting the stage to tax us more on gas so baring any common sense the price level looks to rise.
The market if allowed to function should produce some very exciting alternative as discussed above and some we cant even imagine. It should be a very exciting future with amazing innovation.
"Thanksgiving is traditionally a time for family gatherings, and higher gas will not discourage Americans from reconnecting with their loved ones," Robert L. Darbelnet, President and CEO of AAA, said in a release.
Some 31.2 million vacationers will travel by car, up 1.3 percent from last year, AAA said. Another 4.7 million will go by air, up 2.2 percent. The rest will take trains, buses or other modes of transportation.
Average U.S. retail gasoline prices are already closing in on the record $3.22 posted last May, with the national average at $3.11 on Thursday, about 90 cents higher than what the motor fuel was fetching last year, according to AAA's daily survey.
"This is the first time that we have seen gas prices tipping over $3.00 a gallon in November," said AAA's Darbelnet. "A year ago, prices were in the range of $2.20 a gallon, so this year travelers are really feeling the pinch."
http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN1558811520071115?feedType=RSS&f- eedName=domesticNews&rpc=22&sp=true
http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2007-06-11-toyota-usat_N.htm
There is a large large body of evidence in the form of real-world cars owned by people in the real world that there is nothing to fear regarding longevity if you go for a hybrid purchase. At least not if it's a Toyota, and the same could be true for other companies, I just remember the Toyota headline because of the nice round 1 million figure.
However, I tend to think like kernick, I believe it was: I would like to see them work on getting all the pork out of the modern fleet, and even slowing down the non-sport models a little. Drop those curb weights by at least half a ton in most cases, a whole ton in some, then make those engines smaller and as efficient as can be, and you would achieve much of the progress in fuel efficiency that has been made by hybrids, only for less cost.
As for hybrids, I would like to see models with a cheaper entry price, and ones not loaded to the gills with options so as to boost up the price (like all the current Toyota hybrids are for instance). Honda is said to be readying just such a model for the road no later than 2010, with a $15-18K base price. Hooray. I might even be interested if they put a stick shift in it as well...
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Half way.
NiMH batteries are easy to recycle and companies out there already offer money for them. With a bounty on used batteries I doubt many of them will be thrown away.
Anyone ever seen a gen I Prius in a junk yard? I haven't been to one in a while. I should go, I always find something.
Given that all cars have wrecks, and given that once the resale value of a gen 1 Prius is low enough (eventually), sure we'll see them in junkyards just like every other car--just as soon as the engine or some expensive controller gives out. The price of gas pales next to facing a huge expense on a high mileage car with dings and dents and smelly upholstery.
Don't junk yards remove the batteries on all cars they receive? :confuse:
Well the time value of money applies whether you pay cash, finance or lease. If you pay cash you are losing the potential gains you'd have of investing, we agree there. But when you lease or finance you are incurring the expense of paying the lender's time-value-of-money which happens to be the interest rate over the terms of the loan.
I do these sort of analyses for my company where the purchase price is a 1-time capital expense and the gasoline would be handled as an operating expense.
I've crunched the numbers on hybrids vs. a similar vehicle, and there's no general answer even assuming similar depreciation. The answer depends on how much tax-credit the brand gets, whether the hybrid is discounted from MSRP, discounts and rebates on the ICE model at any particular time, the price of gas and what you assume it will do, and how much you drive. So 1)the timing and 2) your assumptions and 3) personal driving needs can make the numbers go either way.
Let's agree to say it is close and leave it at that? A thousand $ or so either way on a $25K+ item (car+gas).
NiMH batteries is a whole different ball game. Some landfills charge you to dump them off. I have a bunch of bad NiMH and Li-Ion Laptop batteries in a box trying to find someone that will take them.
Let's agree to say it is close and leave it at that? A thousand $ or so either way on a $25K+ item (car+gas).
I'm a number cruncher also by education and in the past during business. Now it's an avocation. Yes I agree with all 3 ot your 'conditions'. The numbers can go either way.