The Future Of The Manual Transmission

xhe518 · February 2008

I can definitely foresee a time in the future where the "traditional" stick with a clutch on the floor and a stick shift is really viewed as an anachronism, like side curtains on a convertible.

The 'average' car will have some type of automatic, CVT, or hybrid type trans...."Sporty" cars will have the paddle-shifters on the steering wheel.

boaz47 · February 2008

I can assure you that neither Nippon nor I consider it a conspiracy. I see it as a cultural issue as much as anything else and Nippon has been hoping against hope that the trend will at least stop in the cars he prefers. with more than 90 percent of the American car buyers driving Automatics it is a given that manuals fall into the realm of a Niche market, or sub market if you will.

The question is what does the future hold for the manual? It has been suggested that sports cars will keep it alive for as long as any of us are. It has been suggested that Europe will keep the manual alive. It was even suggested that economy cars are the hope of the manuals future. The CVT is placing the economy car theory in question. My contention has been that at some point most of the mainstream manufacturers will simply drop the manual from their line up because the people buying them will drop below a point where two transmissions aren't necessary. Nissan already has three or four mainstream vehicles without a manual option. The Murano, Rogue, and the Maxima off of the top of my head and I don't believe they have a manual option in their mini van.

If the real future of the automotive industry in the US is hybrids then manuals will face another challenge. As Nipon indicated he is pulling for Honda to hold the line.

I also hope they develop a computer controlled manual with a true paddle shifter. To me that would be the best of both worlds.

xhe518 · February 2008

I definitely agree - I can definitely foresee a day when even Porsches, Ferraris etc... are all paddle shifters - we're practically there now.... The traditional stick will increasingly be a "specialty" item - sort of a 'retro' thing on a car like a Viper or Morgan.

boaz47 · February 2008

We have several in here that do not feel Porsche will drop the third pedal. They have Porsches and are in a better position to indicate what a Porsche owner values. I just know it is harder to find a manual in all the cars we want. Ferrari might go all paddle shifter because their clients are not too concerned with price. MB doesn't offer that many manuals in the US now. Don't count on Viper or Even Corvette because in the GT class they are racing in paddle shifters are the norm and they may want to impress their consumers with something that seems race inspired. There is no telling what the consumer may pay for.

razorasdf · February 2008

I wouldn't be too concerned with brands like Ferrari or Porsche losing manuals outright anytime within the next decade and a half. I know that with Ferraris, the 10-15% that have manuals are diehard fans of three pedals. Sure, you have a few converts here and there, but you've got to remember that all these roboclutch technologies are still new and gimmicky. What I'm getting at is even if someone purchases a flappy paddle gearbox for their next car, there's no guarantee they'll make the same choice for the car after that. Plenty of people with flappy paddles in VWs, BMWs, Ferraris, etc. revert back to three pedals after they realize how much they miss rowing their own gears and pumping their left leg up to Herculean-levels of strength.

Also, check out the used market for Ferraris. Three pedal cars for the 360 Modena are selling for the same prices as the F1-equipped cars. Only difference is that three pedal cars get snatched up quicker.

I'm sort of optimistic now that I've had my GTI and been to so many meets. Sure, the GTI might be sold mostly with the DSG, but at meets with other Dubbers, there are rarely more than one or two DSG cars in a group of 20. The majority of the enthusiasts still drive manuals even if the roboclutch gearboxes can be had for less money after minimal negotiating with the dealer.

lilengineerboy · February 2008

The majority of the enthusiasts still drive manuals even if the roboclutch gearboxes can be had for less money after minimal negotiating with the dealer.

I think that is part of the point. A slushbox is a slushbox. Some are better than others but when you make your car the same as everyone else's, there is nothing to differentiate the vehicles. I think the psuedo-sticks are a temporary thing; I think cars are either going to be a CVT or a true manual, and I don't think there are going to be many in the second category. I think they are going to connect those wanna-be-boy-racer paddle shifters to a volume control so people feel like they are in a different gear, and it will be totally disconnected from the drivetrain, even more so than now.

stever · February 2008

have a manual option in their mini van

You mean in a NA model? The last NA minivan with a stick that I can recall are some old Caravans/Voyagers and I don't remember a stick even being an option when I got my Voyager back in '89.

Maybe VW will put a five speed stick in their new Chrysler built minivan. (we need a "dream on" Emotorcon around here, lol).

bumpy · February 2008

Mazda5.

stever · February 2008

Of course - I knew that.

You can remind me again at the Mazda Chat tomorrow night - link's on the right.

boaz47 · February 2008

Yes I always thought of the Viper as a cross between an old L-88 Corvette and a Cobra. Those were the glory days when Ford actually drove Ferrari off of the track. Maybe it is one of the reasons the GT40 and now the Ford GT just has a magic to them.

xhe518 · February 2008

Don't count on Viper or Even Corvette because in the GT class they are racing in paddle shifters are the norm and they may want to impress their consumers with something that seems race inspired.

I just mentioned the Viper because they originally were sort of hard-core "retro" - no traction control, side curtains, etc.... They are getting more 'civilized' now....

boaz47 · February 2008

The question that comes to mind is based on who they are trying to sell the new paddle shifter to. Let be honest. Paddle shifters have totally replaced dog legs in the upper ends of performance racing. You can't with a race in a F-1 with anything but a paddle shifter. You can't win a WRC event without a paddle shifter. Alms and all the prototypes have switched to paddle shifters. Most of the faster GT classes are now paddle shifters. So the sporting crowd seems to be converting.

Already 90+ percent of all American drivers drive some form of Automatic so that leaves Nine percent or less of the market to manual drivers. Obviously automatic drivers couldn't care less about what transmission they have so just who do we think they are going to market the new paddle shifting street transmissions to? Only an enthusiast or want-to-be enthusiast would be interested. That niche market is the target and the purest has to be an even smaller niche.

stickguy · February 2008

Hope I am using that right!

Anyway, F1, WRC, etc aren't really valid arguements. At least not until I see one of those race cars driving in normal traffic and road conditions.

Hey, a F1 car has a small engine with lots of cylinders and revs like a sewing machine. And a WRC is desigend to be steered with the throttle. How about we set up your street car with a 2l V12 with no torque, and lock up the diffs for you?

Any tool (and a car, and the tranny) are tools to get a specific job done. And the right tool for one job isn't always the right one for another, even if it is the "same" (I don't use my table saw to prune my apple tree!)

I just don't have much call for lightning fast, slam it home shifts at readline in my daily driving (something a race car does). I do, however, often have to modulate the clutch to handle traffic conditions, and that is where the 3 pedals shine.

stickguy · February 2008

Oh, to that question, in most cases it is probably just a marketing ploy to make people think they have a 'sports" car. Same as rear spoilers.

ny540i6 · February 2008

Already 90+ percent of all American drivers drive some form of Automatic so that leaves Nine percent or less of the market to manual drivers. Obviously automatic drivers couldn't care less about what transmission they have so just who do we think they are going to market the new paddle shifting street transmissions to? Only an enthusiast or want-to-be enthusiast would be interested. That niche market is the target and the purest has to be an even smaller niche.

I don't agree. Paddle shifters, manumatics, and any other pseudo manuals are marketed to folks who want to "look" sporty, or "feel" that they have more control, without the apparent bother or involvement of a manual. As an example, manual drivers might try a manumatic, however they usually see the drawbacks, and go back to a true manual.

Three pedal folk are three pedal folk.

nippononly · February 2008

Wow, that sums it up very nicely!

"Three pedal folk are three pedal folk."

Yes, indeed they are.

lilengineerboy · February 2008

Three pedal folk are three pedal folk.

Well spoken

cdnpinhead · February 2008

Amen.

bristol2 · February 2008

Agreed.

I have always believed that CVT and paddle shifters are a threat to the 'traditional' automatic, not to the manual. When the slush box came with the shifter added it made no difference to manual sales, but now most autos have a 'manual shift' capability. The impact was on the automatic gearbox, not the manual.

I just can't get away from the fact that a manual is more fun to drive. Any way you cut it, nothing matches the pleasure of hand and foot in concert with the car to provide the correct amount of power at the right moment.

razorasdf · February 2008

I read the latest March 2008 copy of Motor Trend that arrived yesterday, and one of the letters to the editor was entitled "shifty business." Basically, the author was expressing his disappointment with the lack of a manual transmission on both the Lexus IS-F and Nissan GT-R. Seeing that letter definitely put a smile to my face, but that might be because I'm a tad obsessed when it comes to manual transmissions

Also, when I read that the author was from Maryland, the first thing that popped into my mind was "habitat1." Was it you, habitat??? Or was it someone else that follows this thread, for that matter? I'm really curious!

kyfdx · February 2008

I vote for bouncing off the rev-limiter, as well... If you are trying to simulate a manual, I say go all the way..

kyfdx · February 2008

I agree.... but, I had a 911 that revved so easily, that I would bump against the rev limiter about once per month in 2nd gear (right around 65 mph)..

Of course, that was coming off a cloverleaf ramp onto the freeway...

qbrozen · February 2008

I don't agree. Paddle shifters, manumatics, and any other pseudo manuals are marketed to folks who want to "look" sporty, or "feel" that they have more control, without the apparent bother or involvement of a manual.

You forgot an important demographic (and the one I fall into). Folks who really want a manual, but their significant other won't let them have it. So paddle shifters or DSG or whatever is a compromise of sorts.

That being said, I want to find one that is really really good at simulating manual shifting. No shifting at redline without my say-so; no preventing me from upshifting because the rpms are too low; and instantaneous response to my inputs. I haven't met that tranny yet, but I haven't driven alot of the news ones that supposedly do these things.

ateixeira · February 2008

That's our case. Wifey wants an auto for the heavy traffic she sits in.

I nudged her towards a SportShift.

I still have my manual shift in my Miata, at least.

qbrozen · February 2008

yup yup. same same. I've got my Alfa.

And I've got the mazda pickup, but that's far from fun.

So, right now, we've got 3 sticks. That's just too many.

xhe518 · February 2008

That's the beauty of those paddle shifter DSG trans. Works for both.

ateixeira · February 2008

We made the same mistake. 3 stick shifts was too much, especially for the family car, sitting in traffic.

From now on I think we'll have one or two of each.

ateixeira · February 2008

I like DSG but they tend to be small, expensive, or both.

It's manfactured by Borg-Warner, right? It will be intertesting to see DSG spread to other vehicles.

boaz47 · February 2008

"The impact was on the automatic gearbox, not the manual."

According to most posters here anything other than three pedals is an automatic. So what impact does that have on automatics? Unless it drives people towards a traditional manual the percentage doesn't change. I doubt if most of the 90+ percent would notice the difference between a torque converter and a Stepped CVT.

I agree three pedal people are three pedal people. At least as far as the sporting group goes. But the economy car people are a different story. They don't seem to care if it has three pedals or no pedals as long as it gets better fuel mileage. So if their Hybrid only comes with a CVT they buy it.

I am not as sure as some of the other posters that all manual drivers of sporty cars are as uninterested in what they might perceive as "race" inspired transmissions in their ride. Three pedal people may call them pretenders but I have read that the majority of Corvettes sold are automatics. You would think that wouldn't be the case.

The very car that three pedal people have been salivating over for years , the Nissan GT-R, is being introduced as an automatic. What does that tell you about how many of the manufacturers feel about the traditional manual? I grant you that the manual has a following but I believe it will become even more of a niche.

qbrozen · February 2008

Huh. I never knew certain cars did that.
My Accord is like the S2K (not surprisingly). It just bounces very fast off the limiter. IIRC, my 350z was the same way.
I've never redlined my Alfa or the pickup for fear of breaking something, so I don't know what those do.

xhe518 · February 2008

What does that tell you about how many of the manufacturers feel about the traditional manual? I grant you that the manual has a following but I believe it will become even more of a niche.

Yep - I don't know if it will ever totally go away, but it will be more and more of a "niche"

boaz47 · February 2008

I like you guys, dogmatic but not to the point of falling on your sword.

andys120 · February 2008

You forgot an important demographic (and the one I fall into). Folks who really want a manual, but their significant other won't let them have it. So paddle shifters or DSG or whatever is a compromise of sorts.

Don't forget about old codgers like me who have simply lost the physical ability to operate a third pedal. It's more common than you might think since around 1/3 of the population has a physical disability of some kind, I'd guess that 1/2 of that third might have some difficulty with a clutch . For people like me a manumatic or twin clutch auto-shifter offers salvation from the boredom of operating an old fashioned Hydro-matic.

That being said, I want to find one that is really really good at simulating manual shifting. No shifting at redline without my say-so; no preventing me from upshifting because the rpms are too low; and instantaneous response to my inputs. I haven't met that tranny yet, but I haven't driven a lot of the news ones that supposedly do these things.

The VW-Audi DSG is the closest to what you want, I don't think it will prevent you from upshifting at too low RPMs but it will upshift at redline. That's a moot point IMO since most present day manual shift cars will force a manual upshift at redline since the rev limiter will cut-off fuel past that point. OTOH DSGs will give you the most instantaneous response to inputs that you've ever experienced.

More of those are on the way, I'm anxious to try BMW's DCT (Dual-Clutch Transmission) which aarives this year on the new M3 convertible.

stever · February 2008

falling on your sword.

That would be a stick with the Nardi shift knob removed. :shades:

Timely comment about codgers. My wife misses having a stick around the house too, but we're waiting word on her MRI taken yesterday. After banging her left knee skiing last week, she's been limping around with a crutch, and shifting would be out of the question right now.

qbrozen · February 2008

The VW-Audi DSG is the closest to what you want

Yeah. Its just too bad about the rest of the car. ;b

but it will upshift at redline

REALLY? Huh. Even Mazda's manumatic doesn't do that. I would have thought the DSG would let you bounce off the limiter as much as you want.

andys120 · February 2008

Actually I'm not sure since I see little point in "bouncing off the Rev-limiter" so I didn't try it.

The manumatic in my BMW will shift at R/L and that's fine with me. 24 new valves could be a real wallet-buster,

qbrozen · February 2008

I see little point in "bouncing off the Rev-limiter"

Well, of course there is little point, but it is just a matter of having complete control. I mean, if you are going to advertise the benefits of having complete control over the tranny, then give me complete control. Ya know?

And there is the extremely rare occassion where you might want to hit redline briefly before braking and entering a turn and still want that lower gear when exiting the turn. If the tranny upshifts itself, you are in the wrong gear at exit. So there is a reason for it. I've done it with my stick shift, so I want that same ability in my manumatic.

boaz47 · February 2008

The very concept of a rev limiter would take away some of the control. It doesn't simply stop at speed you lose power. It is like the car is screaming at you to shift and for just a brief instant you think something broke till the RPM drops back a bit and you realize the engine isn't dead. You don't have to hit the limiter often to know the car is telling you it is a bad idea.

When I was in college a lot of my friends had the same attitude about manuals as many in this forum do. Some would make the statement that they would have to pry the stick from their cold dead hands. But it seems as if estrogen is able to desolve much of that dedication. My wife might be the exception, as some others have indicated their wives are as well. When we first started going out she had an old Lotus that had knock off rims. She even had the lead hammer. From that you would expect her to be a die hard manual driver. However it only took heated leather seats to get her to jump from a Pickup with a manual to a SUV without.

scwmcan · February 2008

while we're at it let's add a third pedal to assist with the shifts (lol). I agree if they are going to claim to allow the control of a manual, then make it behave the same as a manula without a clutch pedal, no other programming to get in the way (except maybe not allowing downshifts until the speed would not over rev the engine). I love being back into a manual after 10 years of an auto, it is more fun, and it gives me much better control (especially on the winter snow and ice).
Scott

ateixeira · February 2008

Same here. Rev limiters are set below true max RPM so that should not harm modern engines.

andys120 · February 2008

Most cars are geared in such a way that peak power and torque occur before redline so the last couple of hundred RPMs before redline are mostly "sound and fury signifying nothing".

Of all the cars I've owned only one was set up so "peaky" that the engine would continue to make additional power past redline. My stock Fiat 124 Sport Spider 1600 was set up so that peak power occurred around 7200 rpm. Combined with a superb clutch and shifter action it was an absolute blast to drive hard but even the E-Types I've driven had nothing else to give you much past 6500 rpm or so.

qbrozen · February 2008

It doesn't simply stop at speed you lose power. It is like the car is screaming at you to shift and for just a brief instant you think something broke till the RPM drops back a bit and you realize the engine isn't dead. You don't have to hit the limiter often to know the car is telling you it is a bad idea.

But take a look at my previous point about touching redline just before needing to brake for a turn. In that case, I'm not necessarily talking about even hitting the fuel cutoff. To put numbers to it, let's say I'm in my Accord and let's say it has a manumatic. I want to hit 6499 rpms and brake to 5k rpms and then accelerate again. The manumatic does not like this idea. It decides to shift for me at 6450 rpms just as I go to hit that brake. Then when I go to accelerate, I'm at 3500 rpms rather than a much more ideal 5k. See what I mean?

boaz47 · February 2008

I know what you are saying. It is just with a rev limiter even with a manual you will be back below 6450 before you can react. But I do see why you would want the same freedom as you have with the manual. I just know the first time I ever hit the limiter my heart must have stopped for a few moments. It reminded me of the old days with solid lifters and you would cook a spark plug.

andys120 · February 2008

The only reason I picked Nissan is because of their love affair with the CVT.

It's curious IMO that Nissan and Audi so far the only ones to adopt a CVT for applications in excess of 200HP. Considering the theoretical efficiency advantages of the CVT, why aren't Toyota, Subaru, GM etc using them?

bumpy · February 2008

It depends on how the ECU is set. On the S2000, it "pops" like a Formula 1 or IRL car, staying at or just below the set limit. On the SE-R, the injectors shut down and stay down until you lift out of the pedal. I can coast it all the way down to 0 rpm if I really wanted to.

boaz47 · February 2008

From what I hear GM is starting to use them. But not to the degree that Nissan has. The Murano and the Maxima both have more than 200 HP and seem to work well with a CVT. The Rogue is CVT only but it has 167 HP.

Because VW has done so much work on the DSG I am surprised Audi has bothered with the CVT.

andys120 · February 2008

that the geeks will be able to "modify" these manumatic shifters to be more suitable to
enthusiast drivers. If you wanted it to hold a gear past redline it's just a matter of "hacking it".

bristol2 · February 2008

Some would make the statement that they would have to pry the stick from their cold dead hands. But it seems as if estrogen is able to desolve much of that dedication.

Funny

The point I was trying to make earlier is that, IMO, the majority of paddle-shifters and DSG sales go to people who are moving away from the traditional automatic, not people moving away from manuals.

There are a couple of posters who make great points whether they are related to family requirement for an easy to drive vehicle but again, not many families are all-manual, all the time. We have an auto 4-runner sitting right alongside the stick shift Accord.

I also get the folks who have an injury that makes shifting hard to do. I had all kinds of fun in a terrible old Isuzu Rodeo with stick when I pulled all my left leg knee ligaments, amazing what one foot can do, I'm just glad the distance between the clutch and the brake was not so great that I couldn't work both at the same time. :sick:

stickguy · February 2008

Well, paddle shifts and DSG are being bought because that is what is being made. I highly doubt anyone is making the purchasing decision based on that (well, OK, some), but most people get it because that is what the car has. Then they don't use it.

I guess I contradct my own arguement. If I move to an AT for my daily driver, it will have to have a manumatic of some kind. Not that I will end up using it either, but it will have it!

Paddles I don't care about. It is more natural to me (after 30 years driving a manual, it should be!) to reach for the shift level when I want to change gears.

boaz47 · February 2008

"I guess I contradict my own argument. If I move to an AT for my daily driver, it will have to have a manumatic of some kind. Not that I will end up using it either, but it will have it!"

I understand and I agree. The thing is I believe you are with the majority of people. Most automatic people simply don't care how the car gets in gear. But long time manual drivers do care and some shifters like the DSG will fill their wants far more than they will the wants of a Automatic driver. For most drivers I don't see things getting better on the manual front. For the died in the wool three pedal people there is Porsche.

What remains to be seen is who drops manuals from their lineup first. My friend Nippon says MB and I am leaning towards Nissan with Toyota a close second. The only reason I picked Nissan is because of their love affair with the CVT.

The Future Of The Manual Transmission

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