Real-World Trade-In Values

Mr_Shiftright

mynameistory said:

Here's the VIN for Phoebe (the Tacoma):
5TFLU4EN9CX037802
I've never requested a Carfax but it looks like they cost money. I don't mind obtaining one for myself in the pursuit of info. 

Here's the 4Runner Carfax in Mission Hills CA (suburb of LA):
https://goo.gl/FD448f
And the ad at Hamer Toyota:
https://goo.gl/ri2qdk

Thanks all for your input! 

CARFAX is clean. Looks good.

mynameistory

Yes, I am one of those weirdos who uses the truck as intended. The Tacoma, FJ, and T4R are incredibly capable vehicles (if a bit old-tech with solid rear axles and BOF). Speaking with my wife, we think we'd like to have the ability to take the family in one car (we're planning 2-3 kiddos plus the dogs).

This either means minivan or wagon (which I wouldn't mind, actually). I'd much rather go full Dad-mode and get a minivan than an SUV just to prove I'm still "cool". But this would mean trading in her car (a clapped-out 2008 Prius with a slowly dying hybrid battery) for a minivan and having two large cars if we wanted to keep adventuring.

I figure the 4Runner can haul kids and dogs, go camping, and work well in the snow- all in one vehicle. Cheri can drive her Prius until the wheels fall off (not much trade-in value so might as well) and then replace with a small economic car down the road.















Thanks for the Carfax check Mr Shiftright!

Michaell

Any of those pix taken at Happy Valley, off I-5?

I used to go there many years ago with family.

cdnpinhead

Damn -- you could make an excellent Toyota calendar with those photos. Does my heart good to see a vehicle used for its intended purpose. Our beloved (RIP) Pathfinder had a number of dents underneath and other battle scars.

mynameistory

Michael I think you mean Hungry Valley, near Gorman? No I have not visited there much except for a few trips into Frazier Park. The photos are as follows:
• Coming down Berdoo Canyon from Joshua Tree
• Cold morning in Mammoth. The snow was amazing that day- a new foot of cold smoke. 
• Christmas weekend, again in JTNP. Old Dale mining district. 
• some old mining cabins in Mojave National Preserve... I think in the New York Mountains. 
• Just above Convict Lake in the Sierras. Low snow that winter. 
• Reward Mine, just outside of Independence, CA. Yes the mine is large enough to drive into for over half a mile!
• Leaving Mammoth again. Lots of heavy, wet snow they call "Sierra Cement". Highway 395 towards home had snow clear down to Lone Pine that night- drivers kept their chains on for over a hundred miles trying to get home. This truck on KO2's never batted an eye. KO2's are phenomenal off-road and snow tires! Haven't tried them in much mud though. 

Michaell

mynameistory said:

Michael I think you mean Hungry Valley, near Gorman? No I have not visited there much except for a few trips into Frazier Park. The photos are as follows:
• Coming down Berdoo Canyon from Joshua Tree
• Cold morning in Mammoth. The snow was amazing that day- a new foot of cold smoke. 
• Christmas weekend, again in JTNP. Old Dale mining district. 
• some old mining cabins in Mojave National Preserve... I think in the New York Mountains. 
• Just above Convict Lake in the Sierras. Low snow that winter. 
• Reward Mine, just outside of Independence, CA. Yes the mine is large enough to drive into for over half a mile!
• Leaving Mammoth again. Lots of heavy, wet snow they call "Sierra Cement". Highway 395 towards home had snow clear down to Lone Pine that night- drivers kept their chains on for over a hundred miles trying to get home. This truck on KO2's never batted an eye. KO2's are phenomenal off-road and snow tires! Haven't tried them in much mud though. 

Yep, I meant Hungry Valley. See, that alone tells you how long it's been!

Thanks for the pix, and the quick descriptions.

xwesx

I love the mine pic. It is freakish and awesome, all at once. Just need yourself five more pics, and a calendar you do have!

nyccarguy

Great pics!  Kudos for you for using your truck as intended!  

Michaell

@mynameistory - shutterfly can take those pictures and turn them into a calendar. My daughter did that for my wife as a Christmas gift, using pictures she had taken of birds at our feeders over the year.

mynameistory

xwesx said:

I love the mine pic. It is freakish and awesome, all at once. Just need yourself five more pics, and a calendar you do have!

Great story about that one. In that picture the engine was turned off for about 5 minutes while we explored. Well, the five year old battery... Gave up. Truck wouldn't start, just clicking from the solenoid. How's that for a Triple-A call? 

We let the truck cool down for a bit (outside was 100º+, inside the mine was a cool 65º). We almost hiked to the entrance to call for a jump, and I tried the starter one last time and it cranked over!

"DO NOT STOP THIS TRUCK UNTIL WE ARE HOME!" - Cheri

Now I carry one of these as part of my recovery gear:




Maybe I will make a calendar... If I sell Phoebe it would be a nice memento. 

fushigi

I have the 800 CCA version of this (https://www.amazon.com/GOOLOO-20800mAh-Portable-Starter-Protection/dp/B06XY35D93). Love it. A friend's car wasn't starting so we used it to boost. Several jump attempts later (turns out car just wasn't liking the wet/rainy conditions) and we figured each jump used around 1% of the charge. Mine has 2 USB & both male (for charging) and female (for powering a device) "cigarette lighter" sockets as well as AC charging, jump starting, and the mandatory flashlight.

Small enough that we toss it in the wife's trunk for storage as her car has the 5+ year old battery & mine is under a year.

Bonus: Lithium Ion batteries don't fade fast like lead acid batteries; storing it during summer saw it only lose about a percent of charge,.

corvette

Hmm, I’m guessing it would use more than 1% of charge had the battery actually been flat. 

28firefighter

Q,

What do you make of this one?

http://www.acuraofbellevue.com/used/Mercedes-Benz/2015-Mercedes-Benz-C-Class-0efa6bbf0a0e0ae7682674b8665a1b2b.htm

2015 Mercedes C300 (no 4Matic)
Silver
Black Leatherette
Premium Package (Burmester, Keyless Go etc.)
Multimedia Package
No Moonroof
23k miles
Seattle Area

Dealer has had it for 100 days and says they are breaking even at $24,9.

qbrozen

Probably darn close to breaking even. That's about $1200 over CURRENT auction value.

stickguy

No moonroof on a premium car? Must be rare.

stickguy

This one seems comparable, but more $ at an Indy so not CPO.

https://www.aviautosales.com/mobile/mdetails.aspx?VID=13224052

And same basic car at a dealer near me, for way more money. CPO.

http://www.mbofdevon.com/certified/Mercedes-Benz/2015-Mercedes-Benz-C-Class-84c0449b0a0e0a6b27ec24f7437c4304.htm

kyfdx

stickguy said:

No moonroof on a premium car? Must be rare.

That would be an anchor in our area. No sunroof on a luxury make? Just send it back through the auction.

28firefighter

I suspect the RWD and no moonroof is why it hasn't sold here. Need to be prepared for the 1 day a year when it snows...

stickguy

Yup. Would have to be a screaming deal to get me to buy. And you better want to own it a long time. Basically a Roadrunner special!

Mr_Shiftright

28firefighter said:

I suspect the RWD and no moonroof is why it hasn't sold here. Need to be prepared for the 1 day a year when it snows...

But AWD improves your braking and handling.....oh, wait...it doesn't actually.

stickguy

Ah, did not notice RWD. Makes it more attractive to me. But otherwise, basically sale proof around here. Ship it to Florida!

28firefighter

Just not sure I want to own the car that sits on dealer lots for 100 days...will make it impossible to get rid of when I get tired of it in 2 years...

corvette

Oh, not impossible, they will just make you a trade-in offer that reflects its desirability...

fushigi

corvette said:

Hmm, I’m guessing it would use more than 1% of charge had the battery actually been flat. 

Not necessarily. It's rated at 25 jumps/charge and can do a 6L Diesel. So probably a lot more jumps on a modest 4 banger.

stickguy

I like the Mini. But dumb of them to list a slushbox as a manual.

euler74

I have a quote of $27000 on a 2017 Forester XT Touring (without eyesight) w/ 13k miles MSRP $35800 in Phoenix,AZ. [This is to BUY the car]
KBB Trade-in range is 24,356 - $26,338 and private-party range is $25,220 - $28,591

I need to inform the dealer by today as it is being shipped off to another dealership
Is this a good deal?

xwesx

euler74 said:

I have a quote of $27000 on a 2017 Forester XT Touring (without eyesight) w/ 13k miles MSRP $35800 in Phoenix,AZ.
KBB Trade-in range is 24,356 - $26,338 and private-party range is $25,220 - $28,591

I need to inform the dealer by today as it is being shipped off to another dealership
Is this a good deal?

Hopefully Q will get a chance to respond with real numbers. Seat of the pants, from a Subaru guy, is that it is a solid buy. That's ~25% off MSRP for 13,000 miles. The best you're likely to do on a new vehicle might be as low as $32,200, so you're looking at a savings per mile of about 40 cents (e.g., $5,200 difference / 13,000 miles = $0.40/mile). You won't be driving that car for anything near that going forward, so you're getting a pretty solid discount on those miles.

Biggest question I have is when was the in-service date? It could be upwards of 18 months for a 2017 model, so that means you may have less time under B2B warranty. Otherwise, I would definitely take this over new.

euler74

xwesx said:

Biggest question I have is when was the in-service date? It could be upwards of 18 months for a 2017 model, so that means you may have less time under B2B warranty. Otherwise, I would definitely take this over new.

Service Date: 08/17/2017 @ 9,720 miles

euler74

euler74 said:

xwesx said:

Biggest question I have is when was the in-service date? It could be upwards of 18 months for a 2017 model, so that means you may have less time under B2B warranty. Otherwise, I would definitely take this over new.

Service Date: 08/17/2017 @ 9,720 miles

Oops, that was when the vehicle was "serviced" Sorry for the noob comment. The in-service date is 11/24/2016

qbrozen

euler74 said:

I have a quote of $27000 on a 2017 Forester XT Touring (without eyesight) w/ 13k miles MSRP $35800 in Phoenix,AZ. [This is to BUY the car]
KBB Trade-in range is 24,356 - $26,338 and private-party range is $25,220 - $28,591

I need to inform the dealer by today as it is being shipped off to another dealership
Is this a good deal?

That is an incredible deal. They could get that much at auction. Guess they figure they are saving themselves the transport cost and auction fees. This is, of course, if it has no accident history and is not a crazy color.

euler74

qbrozen said:

euler74 said:

I have a quote of $27000 on a 2017 Forester XT Touring (without eyesight) w/ 13k miles MSRP $35800 in Phoenix,AZ. [This is to BUY the car]
KBB Trade-in range is 24,356 - $26,338 and private-party range is $25,220 - $28,591

I need to inform the dealer by today as it is being shipped off to another dealership
Is this a good deal?

That is an incredible deal. They could get that much at auction. Guess they figure they are saving themselves the transport cost and auction fees. This is, of course, if it has no accident history and is not a crazy color.

What would be the depreciation of the car in the next 3 years. I need to decide between this and leasing a 2018 XT touring (36mon/12k miles) which comes with the eyesight package.

Mr_Shiftright

You might look at Edmunds' True Cost to Own Calculator to give you an idea of that.

euler74

Mr_Shiftright said:

You might look at Edmunds' True Cost to Own Calculator to give you an idea of that.

The calculator assumes that the car is new. The car I am interested is a used one.How can I estimate a car which will potentially have 2 owners?

kyfdx

euler74 said:

Mr_Shiftright said:

You might look at Edmunds' True Cost to Own Calculator to give you an idea of that.

The calculator assumes that the car is new. The car I am interested is a used one.How can I estimate a car which will potentially have 2 owners?

If your are comparing it to leasing a new one.... then, it will be hard to beat the 39 or 42 month lease program that Subaru has now, on the 2018 Forester. Once you factor trading in at wholesale when you get ready to sell, the lease will be cheaper overall (most likely).

Not to mention, better cash flow with the lower payment

xwesx

Agreed; if you don't plan to keep it more than the period of the lease, then it probably won't work out in your favor on the purchase. However, that is a very strong purchase price, so if you sell it private party down the road, and Subaru keeps its strong resale as it has over the past decade or so, then it might be a near thing.

Mr_Shiftright

euler74 said:

Mr_Shiftright said:

You might look at Edmunds' True Cost to Own Calculator to give you an idea of that.

The calculator assumes that the car is new. The car I am interested is a used one.How can I estimate a car which will potentially have 2 owners?

Well it gives you a 5-year depreciation, so just use the 2nd or 3rd year figures.

Or, you could price out the exact equivalent 2018 model--that is, what you are likely to pay (not MSRP), and then compare that to the $27K you are paying for a one-year older model. That's probably the depreciation hit the 2018 will take.

Michaell

What would be a good price for this?

kyfdx

Michaell said:

What would be a good price for this?

Ugh...

Michaell

kyfdx said:

Michaell said:

What would be a good price for this?

Ugh...

It's not for me ...

qbrozen

Michaell said:

What would be a good price for this?

Only the driver's dignity and any shred of appreciation for motorized transportation.

qbrozen

In terms of US dollars, $7500 would be about right.

28firefighter

qbrozen said:

Michaell said:

What would be a good price for this?

Only the driver's dignity and any shred of appreciation for motorized transportation.

Coffee right through the nose.

Michaell

qbrozen said:

In terms of US dollars, $7500 would be about right.

Thanks!

And yes, I deserve the blowback I'm getting on the choice of vehicle I posted.

Mr_Shiftright

I was going to suggest "FREE" but Q was much more polite.

qbrozen

With the CVT, I wouldn't even want it as a gift. It is tolerable with the manual, but $7500 is just crazy talk, IMHO. Almost any other $7500 car would be better. To me, that's a $4500 car, at best, with a manual. And, funny enough, $4500 is auction value.

corvette

Sorry, but I had a Versa sedan of that generation with the CVT as a rental, and thought it was decent. No way would I want it with the four speed auto.

euler74

xwesx said:

Agreed; if you don't plan to keep it more than the period of the lease, then it probably won't work out in your favor on the purchase. However, that is a very strong purchase price, so if you sell it private party down the road, and Subaru keeps its strong resale as it has over the past decade or so, then it might be a near thing.

I purchased the car!! It has all the features that I need. The Eyesight package would've been a nice thing to have but I really don't find it essential. Thanks for helping me with the decision!

xwesx

euler74 said:

xwesx said:

Agreed; if you don't plan to keep it more than the period of the lease, then it probably won't work out in your favor on the purchase. However, that is a very strong purchase price, so if you sell it private party down the road, and Subaru keeps its strong resale as it has over the past decade or so, then it might be a near thing.

I purchased the car!! It has all the features that I need. The Eyesight package would've been a nice thing to have but I really don't find it essential. Thanks for helping me with the decision!

Congrats, Euler! May you have many miles of enjoyment!

qbrozen

corvette said:

Sorry, but I had a Versa sedan of that generation with the CVT as a rental, and thought it was decent. No way would I want it with the four speed auto.

It gave me a headache. That engine is NOT smooth, and having it buzz at a steady 6k rpms while trying to get up to speed was beyond irritating. 

Michaell

OK, I forgot about the CVT in these. And, an early generation of it, as well.

Just spitballing for a (future) family member. But, looks like any change of vehicle may be a year or two out.