The Future Of The Manual Transmission

boaz47

I don't think the point is if the CVT is better or worse than their six speed. I think the point is they are moving in that direction. If there were nothing wrong in the eyes of the bean counters at Renault why drop the manual from the Maxima? Remember someone else gave cost as an incentive for manuals earlier on in these posts.

I do disagree that people love their shift points but I will conceed they are all used to them and people don't normally like change.

Like you said time will tell if Nissan survives this move. But if it does I have no doubt other manufacturers will follow.

Here is how I view it. Purely by percentages, CVTs are on the rise, six, seven and eight speed automatics are on the rise. Hybrids are on the rise and hybrids tend not to be manual friendly. DSGs and SMT have entered the market. Manuals are holding steady at something less than 10 percent. Manufacturers like ZF have admitted the US and Asia are all but lost to the manual market and Europe is just now beginning to slip. Despite the loyal sport sedan drivers Nissan has dropped the manual as an option on the Maxima and the Altima SL.

Because this discussion is on the future of manuals not the worth of manuals what bright spot can someone point to? At least in Nissans case you can see loyal manual drivers seem to have very little influence on marketing decisions.

jeffyscott

Because this discussion is on the future of manuals not the worth of manuals what bright spot can someone point to?

The "SE-R Spec V, available ONLY with a six-speed manual" has been pointed to presumably as a bright spot. Same could be said of the, manual only, Mazda Speed6 and Speed3. I would, however, see these as evidence of manual becoming a niche for those few who buy cars as (at least in part) toys.

In addition, these sorts of vehicles appeal to the automtive press. So another reason for continuing production of manual equipped niche versions of common cars could be to impress editors of C&D, MT, Edmunds, etc. Some readers may then duly impressed by the reports from these sources and put the vehicle on their list...but most of them will end up buying the normal version and an automatic.

nippononly

Indeed, most of the sport-niche variants of the common compacts are manual-only, right? Civic SI comes to mind. The old Corolla/Matrix XRS was another. Focus SVT was before it hit the skids. And then of course there is Cobalt SS - isn't that manual-only as well?

Apparently, the manual transmission still says "sport" to a lot of people. VW will test this hypothesis with the new R32 with DSG.

habitat1

"Despite the loyal sport sedan drivers Nissan has dropped the manual as an option on the Maxima... At least in Nissans case you can see loyal manual drivers seem to have very little influence on marketing decisions."

And sales of the Maxima dropped from 131,000 units in 1999 to approximately 70,000 in 2006 (64,500 through November). Oh yeah, those Nissan marketing folks are just brilliant at figuring out what the consumer wants, aren't they? :confuse: :P

jeffyscott

And sales of the Maxima dropped from 131,000 units in 1999 to approximately 70,000 in 2006

But they essentially made the Altima into the new Maxima, didn't they. Don't know much about Nissan historically, but to me Maxima seems more aimed toward luxury than sport. Perhaps this is Nissan's intent.

What should matter to Nissan is profits in 1999 vs. 2006, not the sales figures for Maxima.

habitat1

Rebutted like a true marketing genius. But you do the homework this time - post the Altima sales and corporate profits from 1999 to 2006 to make whatever point you want.

Frankly, I don't see how that will make up for the fact that the 4th generation Maxima (1995-1999) was a bonifide leader in the ELLPS market and now it isn't even on Edmunds list of candidates. Two decades of brand/model equity and image - not to mention 60,000 in annual sales - got thrown in the toilet relative to the Maxima. If I were CEO, I'd fire any marketing exec that said, "but the Altima is doing better", as an excuse. You don't castrate your successful flagship to pump up your down-market products. In any business.

Using the Maxima as an example of where the future of the manual transmission is going is, unfortunately, like using the Dodo bird as an example of the future of flight. Perhaps they should rename it the Minima. :confuse:

iluvmysephia1

Donald Trump and we'll be even.

boaz47

Glad you mentioned Dodo bird and Manual in the same sentence and not me. So is Chosen a fool or not? Nissan was gone for all practical purposes till Renault saved it. And for a few years they did fine. Now we are about to say Nissan is finished? And didn't Maxima fall before it was infused with the CVT? Sounds like the Manual sport sedan image sure wasn't enough to save it. So what is left but to try something else?n What sure didn't work was the, "Make it in a manual and they will come." Because no one came.

jeffyscott

Rebutted like a true marketing genius. But you do the homework this time - post the Altima sales and corporate profits from 1999 to 2006 to make whatever point you want.

In 1999 Nissan lost 684 billion yen, in 2005 they earned 518 billion yen. See "net income chart" at:

http://www.nissan-global.com/EN/IR/SUMMARY/index.html

The price of the stock, Nissan Motor ADR (NSANY) has about tripled since Jan 1999. Seems like they are doing right by the owners of the company. I don't think they are too likely to be complaining that the company killed sales and profits by not offering a manual in the Maxima.

bristol2

I think the Maxima is a GREAT example of the future of manuals.

You take the manual option out of a previously respected, somewhat sporting, sedan and sales are on the slide. Sounds like they need to remind people the of the driving enthusiast potential of that great Nissan V6 and plug a manual SE model back in for the Maxima.

wale_bate1

Except that the Maxima has morphed into a giant hog. I can't see a manual saving it from itself.

The Altima is the Maxima. The Maxima is now a, a, Le Sabre...

}-]

seminole_kev

In the late 80's\early 90's my father had one of the Maxima sedans with the 300ZX's V6, 5 speed manual and suede seats (yep). Was a real fun sedan. For the time it would zip right along. Had the adjustable sport suspension and a radio with a zillion adjustments that, no matter what, always sounded flat and tinny.

I think it was the last year for the "boxier" looking Maxima before they went to the smoother, aero looking style (which I also liked). Maybe 1989?

boaz47

But is the targeted buyer was the sport minded sedan driver and if manual loving sport sedan driving enthusiasts had even an ounce to say about the direction of the Maxima wouldn't they have left well enough alone? Someone must have told them that Americans simply aren't interested in manuals as a whole, much like the executive from ZF confirmed, and that the odds were a automatic would do just fine. If there were suddenly a 90 percent manual surge I am sure they would have kept the manual. But manual surges are maybe not as dead as the Dodo, I like that word, but they are at least an endangered animal. And even the 270 HP Altima SL comes with the CVT no manual option, not that the Altima has been a slow seller by Nissan standards.

bristol2

Well.... yes, everything you say vis a vis Nissan's research may be correct. Unfortunately it has been proven wrong by the market's reception of the 'new' concept of the Maxima (all auto or cvt).

The only conclusion I can draw is that, bizarrely, even the buyer who is only interested in getting an automatic is still turned off a vehicle when there is no manual :confuse: . I imagine it has to do again with the perception that manual equals exciting and that CVT is still 'new' technology and therefore greeted with skepticism.

So if maintaining a manual in the product line-up somehow legitimizes the rest of the line-up..that's a good thing for the future of the manual transmission.

habitat1

"Sounds like the Manual sport sedan image sure wasn't enough to save it. So what is left but to try something else?n What sure didn't work was the, "Make it in a manual and they will come." Because no one came."

Say what? I think your logic is a little back [non-permissible content removed]-wards. :confuse:

- The 4th generation Maxima was a well respected ELLPS offering a SE sport version with stiffer suspension and a 5-speed manual. Annual sales were 130,000+ units.

- The current Maxima is a bloated Avalon-ish car with a thrilling rubber band transmission. The only "sport" you can find is tuning XM to the ESPN channel. Annual sales are 70,000 units and falling like a rock. I'm not suggesting the loss of a manual transmission was the sole reason for about a $1.8 billion loss in sales for the Nissan model. That was just one component of the entire castration of sport and infusion of blubber that contributed to its demise.

Let me give an opposite example - the 2004 redesign of the Acura TL. Prior to the 2004 redesign, the TL was little more than a nice, cosmetically upgraded Accord. Quite successful, but getting a little old. In 2004, Acura endowed it with a serious infusion of sport - including a superb short throw 6-speed manual, overhauled suspension and chassis, Brembo brakes, and a distinctive, aggressive re-styling. Sales doubled in one year and have continued to grow. Of those sales, less than 10% are manual transmissions (even less than the former Maxima). It shouldn't take an advanced degree in human psychology to understand that some people still have an ounce or two of passion for driving and that cars that cater to them tend to enjoy a halo effect.

lilengineerboy

The only "sport" you can find is tuning XM to the ESPN channel.

Thank you for that, it about sent coffee up my nose.

habitat1

"Except that the Maxima has morphed into a giant hog. I can't see a manual saving it from itself. ... The Altima is the Maxima. The Maxima is now a, a, Le Sabre... "

Unfortunately, I agree that the Maxima is all but dead, short of a huge repositioning effort by Nissan.

However, not to sound snobbish, but among my friends and associates, the Altima is not, nor ever will be, the former Maxima. When I bought my 1995 Maxima, I had several lawyer, doctor and business professional friends that bought Maximas. The four partners of an architectual firm I used bought them as company cars. Many of my friends and associates who owned Maxima's in the 1990's were earning a healthy 6 figures, could afford to spend substantially more, but found the Nissan flagship to be a prudent, well respected alternative to a BMW or Lexus.

The Altima? Not in a million years. Not then, not now.

lilengineerboy

I think the G35 is the new Maxima. My father looked at the Maxima in '03 and decided it was too Buick before getting a G35 sedan 6-speed. It feels like something between a 3-series and a 5-series. At the time, the cost differential between the Maxima and the G35 was minimal.
Also at that point, the TL was still a jazzed up Accord for real estate agents more than a driver's car.

toyolla2

Habitat1, you wrote

"- The current Maxima is a bloated Avalon-ish car with a thrilling rubber band transmission."

Is that a general view shared from those who have driven this car?

It was my understanding that a CVT, whether electrical as in the Prius or mechanical as here, was supposed to offer increased efficacy over a multi-stage gearbox. That you could keep the engine at max rpm and max torque while the vehicle gathered speed instead of ramping up and down the power curve at each shift as manuals and autos do.
T2

boaz47

the fact that they decided to drop the manual option all together? Nothing happens in a vacuum even in corporate board rooms. Something gave them the idea to drop the manual option. If only a hand full of magazine editors and a few enthusiasts are buying the sport option on their sport sedan why even keep that option when sales start to fall. The cars sales started slipping long before they decided to make it CVT only.

Can anyone picture the executives sitting around the board table and saying, we don't want to see cars so lets drop the manual option from the Maxima? Not only that lets make the topped out Altama SL CVT only because we want to disappoint the millions of manual fans that have been flooding the company mail seeking more manual options.

It is more likely that if you are having trouble with a product and you are interested in cost cutting you might want to consider cutting one of the least popular transmissions in your fleet to cater to the more than 90 percent that care at all. Maybe I should have said, that don't care at all about the transmission choice. The majority of the consumers pay the bills. The fringe buyers that make up the niche are simply icing on the cake. every business model you will ever see suggest making you product appeal to the most people with the easiest manufacturing process.

Emotionally Nissan has hit the "sporting" enthusiast in the face again. But this is how they survived before and it worked last time. They dropped the ZX and the SX and anything one might consider sporty. At one time about the only thing they sold here was the Maxima, Sentra and their small truck. Obviously they consider that the core market. Time will tell I suppose.

I agree the G35 is their new sport sedan, but even that got here first as an Automatic to see how the market would respond and the manual came over later. They know where the American market is they just need to make something the Americans are interested in.

lilengineerboy

I agree the G35 is their new sport sedan, but even that got here first as an Automatic to see how the market would respond and the manual came over later. They know where the American market is they just need to make something the Americans are interested in.

1. They wanted to push the G35 coupe, which was originally only manual (350z 2+2)

2. The Maxima was still available with a 6 speed then.

habitat1

Boaz, boaz, boaz,

Do you realy believe what you are saying, or are you just being stubborn? Seriously. :confuse:

I'm NOT saying that dropping the manual transmission on the Maxima was the sole reason for its decline or signals imminent bankruptcy for Nissan.

But are you trying to defend Nissan as having made smart moves with respect to the Maxima? In 1999, the 5th and final year of the 4th generation, the 131,000 sales of the Maxima was a RECORD. The Maxima wasn't losing sales, it was the most succesful flagship in the history of the company. Then they redesigned it, castrated it of "sport", fattened it to the tune of several hundred pounds and BINGO - they have steadily lost 60,000 annual sales since. The final CVT move was just in case the lid on the coffin wasn't nailed down hard enough. If that's your definition of "success", heaven help any company you work for.

Nissan indeed alienated those "handful of magazine editors and few enthusaists" to the tune of a nearly 50% drop in sales. Go figure that math. And Acura grabbed them to the tune of doubling sales of the TL. But I guess by your definition, Acura's redesign of the 2004 TL and introduction of a sport suspensioned 6-speed manual is a "failure", right?

wale_bate1

But, to be real, H1, the new Max with even a spankin' 6M would be a hog.

I agree that the model is castrated now, but I don't think the tranny has much to do with that at all.

Is the Altima in its sportiest trim still no Max? A decent suspension, a manual tranny, room for four, still almost reasonable size. I ask because I've never liked the Altima and I'm not exactly studied on it...

boaz47

No, I am simply saying they dropped the manual option for "some" reason the seemed logical to the board of directors. It doesn't matter why they did it or how smart it was what is indicated is that these things are happening and manuals suffer when they do.

If you want to know what I believe it is pretty simple. The manual is close to a niche transmission today. The niche market hardly ever controls the direction of the market itself. The vast majority of people see cars as simple tools of transportation. In truth they are machines that get us from point A to point B as comfortably as possible so that we can do the things that are important in life. Work or play. The mass majority of people prefer ease of use in their tools. The manufacturers are more interested in the mass majority of consumers. The manufacturers are also interested in simplifying their processes to the point of offering a one size fits all corporate philosophy. For whatever reason the government and the manufacturers have decided that we need computers to help control how we brake, corner, and even manage our engine RPM. In every other industry once you get to a 90 percent share of the market you pretty much dictate the direction the market goes. Therefore manuals do not have a very bright future in a market controlled by these same forces.

There, I think that makes what I am saying clear. Or at least how I came to my conclusions.

ichpokhudezh

Why is the fuss about Maxima? Nissan is struggling now and they do try to cut the expenses where they can.
On the other hand, Honda added manual option to V6 Accord Sedan - and I cannot find one to test-drive anywhere.

jeffyscott

...are you trying to defend Nissan as having made smart moves with respect to the Maxima? In 1999, the 5th and final year of the 4th generation, the 131,000 sales of the Maxima was a RECORD.

Making sales records, while losing money is not "success". In 1999 Nissan lost 684 billion yen, despite selling all those Maximi. They have made money in each year since 1999...I guess I would call 2000-2006 more successful than losing money in 1999.

wale_bate1

Well, that's a valid point, but there's a converse of course. Unless I'm mistaken, GM turned in some very profitible years while their market-share was being flushed down the pipes!

jeffyscott

But Nissan total sales volume as of 2005 was up 40% over 1999.

http://www.nissan-global.com/EN/IR/SUMMARY/index.html

From what I was able to find on line, it also appears that their US market share has increased from 4% in 1999 to over 7% now.

habitat1

Actually, that was perhaps the clearest post I have read on your logic / position on the matter. I happen to hold a different opinion, but appreciate your clarification. In exchange, I'll try to do the same.

I would generally agree that in "commodity" markets, market share often is king and will dicate success. But in highly discretionary purchases, especially high ticket items, there is often more money to be made in catering to the niche market than the mass market.

Wal Mart is supremely successful in catering to the mass market, but over the past several years, you'd have done better owning Coach stock in your investment portfolio. Would you rather be a commodity producer of polyester blend suits, or Georgio Armani with a fraction of the volume but considerably higher profit margins? In automobiles, Porsche, BMW and Lexus are infinitely more profitable than GM or Ford in spite of the formers substantially higher market share.

Perhaps it's because my own company was succesful in identifying and addressing an unserved market niche that I happen to be a strong believer in their importance and potential for making above average returns. Yet, if I put aside my personal preferences, I can understand your position that, for the more basic modes of transportation, the value of offering a manual transmission is less and possibly outweighed by production efficiencies gained by eliminating the option.

boaz47

Thank you. And as I have tried to say in the past someone is almost always there to fill a niche. I realize that as well. Niche markets can be extreamly loyal and even well paying. I just question how much some will have to pay to remain part of the niche? Time will tell.

nippononly

Toyota is extremely profitable as well, up there with the industry profit leaders, and they have just about completed their total abandonment of the stick shift in their rush to the middle of the market, as a result of their objective to cater to the mass market to the exclusion of all else. :-(

boaz47

That is true. The problem is two fold. A company like Toyota makes money hand over fist by making cars for the very market we have been discussing. It can create a place for someone to cater to the niche that has been abandoned. The other problem is if that money machine sees a niche that is making a healthy profit they sometimes have the money to buy the niche. Look what happened to the English and Swedish car manufacturers. Saab and Volvo got gobbled up. Saab is no longer a niche car because to sell more they had to become more mainstream. It is now only niche in name. Volvo is turning into a more Ford like product. BMW and VW have divided most everything else we remember as English. And they now have imparted a German flavor to things much like the Cooper.

Anyone that is a true Toyota fan would not want to have to buy a German car to get a stick. At least I don't think they would.

mcdawgg

Well, we just got a '07 Toyota Camry CE with a manual transmission! The sticks are out there, if you want one!

By the way, the wife finally decided it would be ok to get a stick! Can you believe it? A wife who agreed to buy a stick, and a Camry with a manual. What an unusual situation!

PF_Flyer

Not so unusual. My wife insists on having a stick. We haven't had anything but manuals since 1979. And my 18 year old daughter hates automatics :P Add to that, my 14 year old can move the cars when she needs the driveway clear for access to the basketball hoop.

Needless to say, the entire household is happy with the addition of our 6-speed Versa a few weeks ago.

kyfdx

So.. how is the Versa? I'm really more of a Honda person, as I've had great luck with them... but, I sat in the Versa at the car show, and it is like being in a Lexus, compared to the Honda Fit...

nippononly

Oooh, I disagree, a Camry with a manual is VERY VERY rare. Way to go mcdawgg! :-)

Even though I am TOTALLY NOT a Camry-type guy, I might buy one with a manual (used) one of these days just for the sheer novelty of it! :-P

PF_Flyer

So.. how is the Versa? I'm really more of a Honda person, as I've had great luck with them... but, I sat in the Versa at the car show, and it is like being in a Lexus, compared to the Honda Fit...

Guess I'm a Nissan person with the run of good results I've had with them. Eight prior Datsuns/Nissans, all manuals, with close to a combined 1.5 million miles on them and the only major issue I ever head was a head gasket on a pickup at about 80,000 miles.

I'm finding I enjoy the interior size of the Versa a lot. Makes my Sentra and even my Altima feel a bit tighter. Zippier than my '96 Sentra. Even though it weighs 300# more, it has a 1.8 and 122 HP vs a 1.6 and 108 HP.

mcdawgg

Thanks. I know the manual Camry is rare, but I think pf flyer was saying that a wife agreeing to drive stick was not rare.
I disagree with that, I think that anyone agreeing to drive a stick today is rare, and normally if one spouse likes stick and one does not, it is the wives 90% of the time that do not want one. This is from my own experiences, and the people on this board are the exception.

She would rather have an automatic, but considering the extra price and the potential problems with them, she decided that the manual was OK.

So, I have a wife who decided to drive a stick, and a Camry with a stick - the combination is quite rare, IMHO. Outside of people on this board, how many households have 2 manuals?

lilengineerboy

My in-laws (330Ci/Accord), us (oh wait, I'm on this board)...hmmm...maybe its a regional thing too, because I can think of several couples back home that both drive 3 pedal cars (and some of their parents).
Also, my manager has a Camry 5spd and my supervisor has a VW stick.

kyfdx

That's okay, mcdawgg... I'm with you.. A lot of families have two automatics, because the wife won't drive a stick, and having a car that she won't drive, even if it isn't hers is a big pain...

I'm thinking of someone on this board exactly like that.. lol..

bristol2

You know what's weird with the whole manual thing?

Whenever I show up with my stick shift everyone thinks it's great and wants to go out for a spin.
My in-laws got a stick shift Jeep and when the whole family goes out there, it's all anyone wants to drive.

Perhaps that explains Maxima-no-stick-no-sales mystery. Lots of people love stick but don't feel they can live with it everyday. But if you go out and state absolutely no stick, all those folks back-lash on you.

Deep down we all want stick shift.

iluvmysephia1

all I know is my own driving experience became a lot more fun when I traded my 1997 Ford Escort sedan in on a 1999 Kia Sephia in May of '99.

Went from an automatic to a stick and I'm never gonna look back.

Never...never ever...never, ever, ever, never, ever gonna look back to a boring, expensive to operate and/or build automatic CVT or DRG or whatever name you want to come up for it.

Never!

habitat1

"Outside of people on this board, how many households have 2 manuals?"

Last night my wife informed me she wants to try out the new Porsche Cayenne 6-speed manual to possibly replace our MDX when it becomes available. If we go for it (doubtful) that would make 3 manuals / 18 gears, surpassing our previous record of 3/16. Not counting my semi-retired Maxima 5-speed which we keep at our second home.

nippononly

I was going to say, I probably don't count because I am a 1-person household, but my household has 2 manuals, total of 10 gears. :-)

british_rover

I had two manuals for a total of 11 gears for a while but that was also a household of one.

shipo

Gee, I'm feeling very insecure here. The most I ever managed in a household of one was a total of 9 gears (although I did manage that three different times). Then, as I morphed into a household of two (plus newborns), the most we ever managed was a total of 10 gears.

Hmmm, I guess we've got some catching up to do. ;-)

Best Regards,
Shipo

kyfdx

At one time, I had two manuals with 7 total gears..

shipo

Yup, me too. ;-)

british_rover

Sorry not old enough to remember 3 speed manuals... :P

kyfdx

When people ask me my age... I reply:

Shipo-ish...