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Besides the efforts of BMW and Porsche recently, Ford is heavily investing in DCT technology, possibly that by the 2011 calendar year we could see Ford's Powershift six-speed DCT offer on every model from the entry-level Ka all the way up to large SUV's powered by turbodiesel engines. Because DCT avoids the inefficiency of a torque converter, it means better fuel economy, especially with highway driving.
As more gears are added to the power band to take advantage of the power and also add efficiency, how many gears does it take before manually shifting becomes illogical?
Eight, nine, ten?
Regards,
OW
But, if you rack up really big fuel bills, chances are you have a long commute, and that means a lot of highway driving (hard to run up the miles going stoplight to stoplight)..
So.. that was my point about the highway mileage... The hybrid powertrain doesn't have a whole lot to do with it..
The stuff that BMW is doing is very cool.. Like, a disconnect at cruising speed, so the engine isn't constantly charging the battery... They say that can save 8-10% on highway mileage.
But, getting back on topic (mea culpa)... the Prius doesn't come with a stick..
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Except for they currently are more expensive than a conventional automatic which is still more expensive than a conventional manual. People who want an automatic aren't going to pay extra for some silly technology that lets them pretend they are shifting sometimes, and people that want a stick aren't going to want it because it doesn't have a clutch pedal.
Besides the efforts of BMW and Porsche recently, Ford is heavily investing in DCT technology, possibly that by the 2011 calendar year we could see Ford's Powershift six-speed DCT offer on every model from the entry-level Ka all the way up to large SUV's powered by turbodiesel engines. Because DCT avoids the inefficiency of a torque converter, it means better fuel economy, especially with highway driving.
Which will make a great automatic transmission, if they can get people to pay for it. Ford North America has a much harder time getting people to pay a premium for new technologies and features than Ford of Europe. The case in point is a Mondeo is a 40k car while the Fusion is a 20k car.
Perhaps in very low end cars you may see traditional manuals being offered but, for the most part I think it is a dying breed.
Heck it's already fairly uncommon to find it as an option really.
-mike
But Mike, right now the DSG is even more expensive than a regular automatic. I don't see how that is going to replace something that was cheaper to begin with.
Not only that, I think the people who care are going to want 3 pedals, and the people who don't care are just going to get a regular automatic.
The trend (as Boaz likes to point out) is for the driver to have less control over the car (can't really shift, stability control can over-ride driving decisions, etc) and i think this is part of it.
And quite frankly, no-one who wants a manual is going to opt for a CVT over a DSG, right? I suppose there will be a few CVT takers to save the $1000 and that will be it. And I will have to learn to live with the DSG, and the enjoyment of my lifelong car hobby will dim from then on. I may buy up a fleet of my favorite cars with manuals so that I never need to buy new again - I can just keep the fleet going in perpetuity.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
This is how I always pictured you solving the problem. And I believe many manual drivers will do much the same if or when that day ever comes. I also believe the defense of continued manuals is as much a hope as a conviction by many pro manual posters. Manuals have been with us almost from the beginning and it is like watching part of history slipping away. Yes it takes more skill to drive a manual vehicle well than it does to drive an automatic but we live in a society that favors ease far more than it does skill.
We hear words like, "but I like", or "I prefer" as if the principal of the individual matters one bit to the corporate world. In real life it doesn't. 10 percent may be enough to keep manuals around for a while but if CVT and DSGs make any inroads into the manual market the number can get much lower. If the percentage reaches about 5 percent the trend may be irreversible. I would imagine that long before they stop offering manuals in the US they will become simply options for those who would rather order one. But as we have seen with cars like the CR-V manual customers can fall to a point where they simply don't offer one at all. Manual owners can shrug their shoulders all they want and say they can simply buy another manufacturers vehicle but that isn't always the case.
As for the CVT, it has the potential to be less expensive and at least as simple as a manual. It would take a lot less skill to drive one and could make single production lines for entry level cars a reality. Some companies are already investing heavily in that direction as we know. Nissan isn't letting any water run under the CVT bridge.
I believe that as time goes on and the Video-game generation becomes the primary sports car buyer, who have grown up driving games that all have DSG transmissions will want these over a traditional manual for performance driving.
Currently the only MTs on the market really are sports cars, BMWs, and really really cheapo cars, even on cheapo cars, ATs are becoming more and more popular.
As much as I'd like to see MTs stick around, I think that 10 years down the road they may be museum pieces.
-mike
A company (Mazda comes to mind, maybe Subaru also) that sells a couple hundred thousand cars a year is making more individual profits on each one, and as such can afford to offer options more countoured to their fan base.
For instance, it is really hard for me to imagine a day when Subaru doesn't offer a 3-pedal manual on the WRX, a car with like a 99.999% (yes, I'm exagerating, but it's high) take rate on the manual. Ditto Mazda with the Miata.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
-mikw
I tend to agree. But even as Nippon says that cars like the WRX are mostly manuals just look at what the WRX was supposed to be when they decided to bring it to the US. It was supposed to be a street version of the WRC Subaru. Many of them even made it to the rally groups in the US. But what transmission does the WRC Subaru use? What takes it from the Clark Kent street car to the Superman racer rally machine? Not a third pedal. So if we are talking a true sporting cadre of game boy buyers think how the DSG would play?
People that buy small entry level commuter cars are mostly point A to point B commuters. Most of those people simply don't care how there car is shifted as long as it gets good mileage and is inexpensive. Nippon and few others might be an exception. My contention is that "real" Sporting enthusiasts are interested in any technology that will give them and edge over their sporting buddies. If the DSG does for them what the SMT and such have done for the fastest racing cars those enthusiasts will bail on the third pedal.
Traditionalist may not agree and I understand why but every year they come up with better solutions for the connecting of the engine to the drive line in most modern cars. we are seeing 8 speed automatics, CVT, DSGs and they all have drawn interest. Some are pulling for niche markets and that may help manuals as well. But when the economy goes into the tank the niche market suffers and Subaru hasn't been the strongest company in the first place. Mazda isn't exactly free to move into the future by themselves either.
-mike
If DCT's are being favored by Ferrari and Porsche, then you know that conventional manuals will start to disappear rapidly as production costs fall over the next several years.
Mexico fines diesel smugglers
(Warning: you'll get a couple of innocuous pop-up ads, when clicking on the link)
So.. I think I may have been correct about it being illegal.. Just got the part about which country considers it illegal wrong...lol
regards,
kyfdx
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-mike
For example the 2008 Accord went from 9.8 to 60 down to 8.4 and went from 23 mpg to 26 mpg overall.
These high gas prices may mean we see more sticks, not fewer.
Here is the article.
http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/cars/new-cars/news/2008/10/save-gas-and-money- - -with-a-stick-shift-10-08/overview/manual-vs-auto-ov.htm
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I guess this is a good example of the old saying: If you tell a lie often enough, people will eventually start believing it
-Frank
And good God! Look at those acceleration times - more than a second faster to 60 in most cases, and NONE of these are sport models except possibly the Mini. Just IMAGINE how much these automakers could boost their fuel economy if they geared them to be only as fast as the automatic versions!!
When will they wake up and smell the $4 gas?
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
To get the 0-60 time down to the automatic numbers you could probably put in a smaller more efficient engine and really gain in mpg.
For example - the manual Civic goes to 60 in 8.6 and the automatic Accord does it in 9.8. If you added 500 lbs to a manual Civic would that 8.6 still be under 9.8? If so that engine in an Accord would offer the acceleration of the automatic with mpg that is significantly imporved (somewhere between the 31 mpg of the Civic MT and the 26 mpg of the Accord MT)
Now the Civic 1.8 may not be the ideal choice - I only mention it because Honda makes both vehicles and they were both on the chart. A 2.0 or 2.2 liter engine in an Accord may be a better choice and could offer astounding mpg for the size vehicle while still beating the typical Accord (with an AT) to 60 mph.
As for the differences in gearing, most of that one second advantage in 0-60 times would disappear if taller final drives were introduced into manual versions.
Do you think anyone can detect a one second difference in 0-60 times except with a stopwatch?
There are lots of good reasons to prefer a manual over an auto but mileage and acceleration times are no longer a factor.
2001 BMW 330ci/E46, 2008 BMW 335i conv/E93
Also, if taller final drive ratios were introduced into manual versions, they would increase their highway MPG. That's the point.
Everything I've read or experienced personally is the complete opposite. While the two may be much closer these days, there is still a difference. For example, when I test drove an auto and stick Accord back to back a couple of years ago the acceleration and response was very different in the manual.
Sounds like CR would disagree with you too.
I agree. Highway mileage is very close and sometimes actually better in the auto because of the taller gearing. City and overall mileage is better in the manual.
Interesting since the I4 MT Accord is only 1 second slower (7.4 vs. 8.4 using CR numbers again) than the AT V-6. Not much point in the V-6 then is there - probably can't tell the difference.
As far as taller final drives go - there is a magic bullet. No need to change final drive - put in an extra gear (6th) and keep the first 5 the same. That way you have identical acceleration and better highway mpg.
Interesting since the I4 MT Accord is only 1 second slower (7.4 vs. 8.4 using CR numbers again) than the AT V-6. Not much point in the V-6 then is there - probably can't tell the difference.
As far as taller final drives go - there is a magic bullet. No need to change final drive - put in an extra gear (6th) and keep the first 5 the same. That way you have identical acceleration and better highway mpg.
My guess is you'll say the difference is statistically insignificant. :P
2001 BMW 330ci/E46, 2008 BMW 335i conv/E93
We are talking about right now with cars that most people buy - the difference is staggering.
I prefer three pedals for personal reasons, but any non-slushies should be similar in performance and mileage. I'll happily concede that point.
We are talking about right now with cars that most people buy - the difference is staggering.
Well, not exactly. The current Jetta GLI and Rabbit GTI can be had with both a manual 6-Speed as well as a 2-Pedal 6-Speed DSG automatic. Both cars can be had for the low to mid twenty thousand dollar range, and the automatic is only an extra $1,075. That said, the mileage difference favors the automatic in the city and the manual on the highway (the GTI has combined ratings of 25 for both transmissions, however the city is 21 for the manual and 22 for the automatic, and the highway is 31 for the manual and 29 for the automatic).
Best regards,
Shipo
Ah ha! Another Koolaid drinker who bought into the party line
As for the differences in gearing, most of that one second advantage in 0-60 times would disappear if taller final drives were introduced into manual versions.
At first blush that sounds like a good theory but have you ever done a 0-60 run for time? I'm guessing not since in most cars you'll still be in 3rd gear when you hit 60 :P
Do you think anyone can detect a one second difference in 0-60 times except with a stopwatch?
Yep you pretty much confirmed my suspicion that you're not the type to "see what a car can do". Maybe while driving an under-powered econobox that has 10+ sec 0-60 times a one sec difference isn't all that noticeable but the faster the car the more obvious the difference.
Certainly for someone who views a car as nothing more than a means of transportation (and millions of Americans fit that description), an automatic is an excellent choice. But if you value performance, mpg, or just the pure act of driving and being one with the machine... nothing beats a manual :shades:
-Frank
VW DSG tranny on the TDI 2.0.
manual 30/41
DSG 29/40
This is EPA not real world and the manual is still better. Real world the diff will be greater.
Look at EPA on the Accord and the other cars in the CR list the MT and AT are about the same, but in actual driving the MT is significantly better.
Yes, put a 6th gear in all manual transmissions! I read a few months ago that Toyota was going to be using 6 speed manuals in NA - they already are selling them overseas. I will have to find the article.
Sorry to blow the socks off your theory but I am an auto enthusiast of long standing having owned cars such as the Pontiac GTO ('70 convertible/MT-4) and a Mustang 5.0L ('86 Convertible/ MT-5)and I have participated in Autocrosses and Rallys numerous times. My current ride is an A/T '00 BMW 528i.
I'd drive an M/T if I could but physical disability prohibits that. I'm thankful that in the real world slushboxes have improved to the point where you are not condemned to life in the slow lane or to mediocre mileage, my Bimmer gets
22-23mpg in town and 29-30 on the highway (I drive fast and have the tickets to prove it.
2001 BMW 330ci/E46, 2008 BMW 335i conv/E93
andys120: did you actually read the linked chart from CR? I think it makes it pretty clear that EPA ratings aren't a good frame of reference when comparing between manual and auto models of the same car. The nature of the EPA test favors the auto. And besides that, I feel that someone actually focusing on fuel-saving has a lot more options for gas-saving in a manual than in an automatic, simply by the way they drive it.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Our Forester is getting great mileage, a whole lot better than the 22 mpg they report for their auto. Still, the 5 speed they tested was significantly quicker as well.
The numbers themselves are less meaningful than their relation to each other, as everybody drives differently.
They said the Accord stick averaged 26 mpg, and I am at 33.4 mpg lifetime over 41,000 miles in my '07 Accord I4 MT.
I've always known the EPA ratings were crap but I wouldn't be so sure about their methodology favoring an autobox. Of the many cars I've owned since those ratings were introduced the only one in which I've been able to consistently outdo the EPA numbers is my autobox Bimmer, one of two A/T cars I've owned.
I'm more inclined to agree with your second statement. A dedicated hypermiler ought to be able to do better in a manual than with a juicebox but to me that's irrelevant. I like to drive fast and there's a good chance my next car will have a twin/clutch sequential that will out-perform it's manual counterpart and get better mileage. :shades:
2001 BMW 330ci/E46, 2008 BMW 335i conv/E93
As I understand it the main reason is that there is less interruption of power going to the drivetrain as there is when you disengage the clutch to put it into another gear , a DSG is always "in gear" so to speak, this helps with acceleration too, IIRC.
The quickness and smoothness of the shifts also means less variance in RPMs and steady-state rpms generally deliver better mileage and less pollution, a big factor in Europe where car mfrs are under pressure to decrease carbon emissions dramatically.
I won't pretend to know exactly how those things work but that's my understanding of how they work.
2001 BMW 330ci/E46, 2008 BMW 335i conv/E93
Fifth Gear(U.K. Car show) recently tested to see if they could get close to the listed times. Now, these are car guys who drive cars for a living, day in and day out.
They got to 80% of the listed time with a Mini Cooper S and flogging the hell out of it. Completely unrealistic. Most cars were 3-5 seconds slower driven by mashing the pedal in first and letting it do what it wanted.
Wow, so they manage to take something totally objective in measurement and make it fuzzy to the point of being a subjective measure? Yup, another meaningless number, sign me up.